Cautiously into Q2 2024

05/17
Had mentioned BW LPG (BWLP) now having a US listing in another thread. It has already run-up quite a bit in a short window. Had a hefty dividend in 2023 (> 20%), so that’s partly the appeal. Company paid out most of its cash flow as the dividend (over 95%). Still trying to understand BWLP. - the company has four segments, some more closely intertwined with the business than others.

Nibbled on the other that recently crossed my radar - IESC. Pulled back 6-7%, so I thought it was worth putting a marker. Dumped token NOK stake. Trimmed GSM in Roth ac on bounce. I like the buyback plans. But it still needs shareholder approval (almost a given, given major shareholder stake). I seriously don’t think current price of GSM is that undervalued. I suspect, neither do GSM mgmt - given the buyback program is planned for 5 years.
Does seem like a shareholder friendly company.

05/20 - 05/21

  • Very good timing on VFS exit for small gain. On 05/21, shares slid sharply. With the gain, can restart a stake with no wash concerns.
  • Exit WDS for a loss
  • Another GCT nibble
  • Another NKE nibble

Noticed that ECO reported last week. Good numbers, dividend hiked, company’s fleet is strictly spot trading

NVDA, QCOM - no comment :slight_smile:

05/22
Transactions the prior two days had been mostly in the taxable ac. Towards the end of yesterday’s trading window, added to ECO in IRA. GOGL reports today. Almost added GCT in Roth ac - glad I paused. Short report came out today and slammed shares. Many shipping names sliding, but not LPG (div had been announced prior, but today was the official q4 2023 numbers)

[edit; AEHR shares bounced, closed out token position in Roth ac]

05/22
Three shipping entities reported earlier today. Had a chance to skim thru all three companies

  1. CLCO - Top & bottom lines okay, 1 of 2 newbuild tankers secured a great 14-year charter, div maintained @ 41c/sh
  2. LPG - Top & bottom lines great, on different reporting cycle, next qtr to date not great, maintain div @ $1/sh
  3. GOGL - Top & bottom lines okay, impressed with Cape avg in q1, maintain div @ 30c/sh

05/22 - 05/24
Port took a bit of a hit on 05/22 -05/23. Then recovered all the drop, and added a little on 05/24. Smaller moves, especially on 05/24

  • Closed out AEHR in Roth ac
  • Added to NKE in taxable ac
  • Trimmed CLCO on bounce in Roth ac
  • Trimmed CLCO on bounce in taxable ac
  • PLTR nibble in Roth ac
  • Another GCT nibble in taxable ac
  • Considered a NVDA nibble - paused. Will wait for the stock split.
  • Another SE nibble in Roth ac
  • Another VEEV nibble in Roth ac
  • Debated on trimming NVDY. Since I didn’t add NVDA, I left NVDY alone
  • VFS on the radar as a trading idea.
  • TSLA on the radar as a trading idea
    [edit]
  • Another IESC nibble in taxable ac

05/28
For some reason, I thought FLNG was due to report today. Not so, they actually reported on 05/23. Div maintained, lots of cash and one small surprise. Flex Constellation which rolled off charter, then headed to first dry dock, secured a short-term charter. No news on charter rate. But, the plus is one fewer source of rev variability.

Ack! CELH slammed hard today - need to peruse.

[edit]
GLNG announce results today. Quick skim - no significant update to Gimi, some progress on Mk II, share buybacks continue @ lower price levels, progress on Macaw subsidiary

05/28 - 05/30
Although a shorter week, a couple of entities reporting, including the last of my Top 10 holdings, FRO, to report their quarterly results. Also this week, news affecting another of my Top 10 picks - AY. The mgmt team from AY accepted what I think is a low-ball offer of $22/sh proposed by ECP. Started trimming my AY stake, but then happened to read something pointed out in a SA article on AY.

Although AQN, with a 42% stake in AY will vote in favor of the deal, the clearing threshold is not 50% + 1 vote, but 75% (AY is a United Kingdom based company and follows the UK rules). Per AY management, the company will continue paying a dividend until the deal is finalized. There is a near-term dividend and possibly the Q2 payout that AY might be forced to make. Why make things easier for company management when they didn’t seem to care about the smaller shareholders?

  • Sold AY shares in IRA ac
  • Sold AY shares in taxable ac
  • Nibble on GCT in Roth ac
  • More IEP in taxable ac
  • Closed out KNSL in taxable ac on bounce (net positive, so I can jump back in without a wash transcation worry)
  • More GCTS in taxable ac
  • Another nibble on BRK-B in Roth ac
  • On LPG’s bounce (05/30) trimmed Roth ac stake. (I think today’s bounce is BWLP-related. What BWLP suggested, and Dorian mgmt also suggested in their call - next qtr will be weaker)

05/31
There was an additional transaction yesterday

  • More ABEV in Roth ac

Today

  • Trimmed ENPH in taxable ac
  • Bothered by the cash build-up, nibbled on a new idea - YMAG, a YieldMax cousin of NVDY
  • Had a chance to skim thru BWLP’s Earnings Call and hear their management talk thru the Q1 2024 results. Useful, because it isn’t directly in the slides e.g. the listed debt is mostly BW LPG India debt. Or, what the vessel sale netted for the company ($20M). A little hazy on the Vitol deal. Is that a segment two item or a segment 4 item? What is clear is that BW LPG is definitely more involved in the LPG sector than just being an owner of LPG vessels i.e. more involved than say Dorian LPG (LPG) or Avance Gas.

Pleased with myself for trimming my CLCO position prior to ex-div. It was a hedge on my CLCO stake … and mostly worked to my advantage. CLCO will stay on my radar in the near term

[Edit: Accounts were negative for much of the day, then flipped overall positive in the last 45 minutes or so]

06/03
That was odd. Noticed it on BRK-A. At least, it was not market-wide (I might have reacted badly)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-stock-halted-eab446ac

Tinkered a little

  • Taxable ac: Trimmed LPG (highest cost basis shares)
  • Taxable ac: More GCT
  • Roth ac: Trimmed CLCO
  • Taxable ac: More QYLD

06/04
First trading hours - market trending down, accounts trending down.
Some individual names e.g. IESC, CLCO, VERI take a beating
Glad I realized gains on CLCO and LPG yesterday (and last week)
Nibbled on SNOW in taxable ac

06/05
Port bounced - making up for two days.

06/06
LPG sells off > 10%, glad I trimmed position
[Edit: Price drop on D-Day likely coz there was a secondary offering @ $44.50 - Only 2M shares offered, plus 300k
Now even happier with my trim decision :slight_smile: ]
GSM bounces, Roth ac trim
More FRO in Roth ac

06/07
Watching, watching - just some smaller moves

  • Near end of trading day - FRO nibble in taxable ac
  • Earlier, Roth ac token position - KNSL, exited
  • Bounce seemed unusual, VERI trim (in Roth ac)

Pleased with myself today, this week. Making many of these calls because I sense market uncertainty. But, I do want to avoid getting too cocky with my abilities. GSL run-up as a recent lesson (10% gains, when I could have had 50% gains)

[Edit:
NVDY payout in Roth ac showed up after market closed - Wow! With as much cash as I have on the sidelines - just a portion for a couple of months of the variable payout NVDY could really put some shine to income and/or specific accounts]

06/10
About 50 min to trade

  • Nibble on NVDY (taxable ac)
  • Exit ENPH
  • Added to NVDY (Roth ac)
  • Nibble on GCT taxable

06/11
About 17 min to trade.

  • I know it’s ex-div. Nibble on BWLP ($18 is better than $20.50)
  • Saw news item on GLNG. Not quite FID, but it sounds like things are a little closer. Given the time-frame, I wonder if this puts pressure on the Cameroon folks and a decision to extend Hilli?

06/12
Saw a couple of articles on with a hyped reason for shipping company stocks selling off i.e. Israel-Hamas pending deal would re-open Red Sea shipping lanes. I don’t buy it. Don’t see mgmt of shipping companies shifting so quickly. Next day, FRO CEO said more or less the same thing - FRO will not be using the Red Sea right away.
Added to SNOW in taxable ac
Purchased more INSW in taxable ac
Purchased more TRMD shares in Roth ac

06/13
On pullback, restarted VERI in Roth ac
Was perusing TRMD Annual Report. Note that the company has three vessels accepted in US MSP program (selective process that allows entities to work with US govt).

Shipping basket has been slipping slightly. Still positive overall and I am still comfortable with all the names. This comfort has been aided by my realizing some gains in CLCO & LPG.

If NVDA keeps bumping up, there might be some FOMO on my part. Then again, having an NVDY stake counters the FOMO aspect a little.
Still on the tech side - GSM pull-back is making me smile about my trim decision. Watching GSM gains just evaporate would have been disappointing. Still like GSM as a business.

06/14
There definitely seems to be a sector rotation going on with shipping names. Not major daily tumbles, but slow 1.5% - 3% drops - not pleasant. Almost threw-in-the-towel on small STNG position. That said, I also considered adding - a limit order for CLCO didn’t fill.

Finally got around to adding some NVDA in Roth ac
On the bounce, trimmed VERI in Roth ac
Added to NVDY in Roth ac

AY Q1 2024 div accrued in ac. Still a few big payouts (IEP, FLNG, AMBP) left to close out the month and the quarter.

Shipping basket ended last week with three names red.

06/17 - 06/18

  • As noted elsewhere, second go-around with NFE
  • Doubled down on HAFN. Position turned green again
  • More NVDY in Roth ac. Seems crazy, but the idea will get a short leash
  • Another CELH nibble in Roth ac

BWLP inched back into positive territory. So midweek, only CLCO is negative (in shipping basket, cap gains only)