Census Corruption

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Our Government is corrupt through and through. Note the over counts were in Blue States and under counts were in Red states. Co-incidence, nope, corruption, unscrupulous democrats put their finger on the scales at every opportunity. Yet they want to be trusted counting ballots.

Below is a link to errors in the 2020 census. The article itemizes the errors. The report’s findings are as follows:

Hawaii: +6.8%.
Delaware: +5.5%.
Rhode Island: +5.1%.
Minnesota: +3.8%.
New York: +3.4%.
Utah: +2.6%.
Massachusetts: +2.2%.
Ohio: +1.5%.
Texas: -1.9%.
Illinois: -2%.
Florida: -3.5%.
Mississippi: -4.1%.
Tennessee: -4.8%.
Arkansas: -5%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-many-people-live-in-ut…

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Our Government is corrupt through and through. Note the over counts were in Blue States and under counts were in Red states.

It has nothing to do with corruption, although it does have to do with the difference between jumping to conclusions and understanding.

Not to mention the difference between states that have leadership that work for their state versus leadership that works for their own self promotion.

“In Census 2020, what did Texas and Florida have in common? Virtually no … state investment in census outreach,” he said, referring to states with large immigrant populations that did not gain as many House seats as they were predicted to. “And then you compare that to states that went all out, like California and New York,” which had overcounts. “I think the investment really made a difference.”

AW

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/05/19/dc-underc…

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state investment in census outreach,” he said, referring to states with large immigrant populations that did not gain as many House seats as they were predicted to. “And then you compare that to states that went all out, like California and New York,” which had overcounts. “I think the investment really made a difference.”

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Yep, those blue states outreached good and hard, so hard in fact as to count hundreds of thousands of people who did not even exist.

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Yep, those blue states outreached good and hard, so hard in fact as to count hundreds of thousands of people who did not even exist.

Once again, you are drawing conclusions from your own beliefs, not from the facts.

From the article i previously linked:

Post-enumeration survey findings released earlier this year showed the 2020 Census missed counting Hispanics, Blacks and other typically undercounted minority groups and overcounted Whites and Asians at a higher rate than in 2010. The undercount for Hispanics more than tripled.

In other words, the survey isn’t showing that the census included people that didn’t exist, just that some states did a better job of including minorities than others.

Undercount & overcount; I don’t think those words mean what you think they mean. [apologies to Inigo Montoya]

Further, the survey is less complete than the census. For example:

Unlike the decennial census, the post-enumeration survey does not count people who live in remote Alaska or in group quarters such as prisons, college dorms, military housing, skilled nursing homes or temporary shelters, or people who are unsheltered — an estimated 2.5 percent of the U.S. population in 2020.

The headlines reinforced your preconceived notions, but the the facts don’t.

AW

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You are debating a wall.

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Post-enumeration survey findings released earlier this year showed the 2020 Census missed counting Hispanics, Blacks and other typically undercounted minority groups and overcounted Whites and Asians at a higher rate than in 2010. The undercount for Hispanics more than tripled.

That is hard to follow. Lets break it down.

This part, Post-enumeration survey findings released earlier this year showed the 2020 Census missed counting Hispanics, Blacks and other typically undercounted minority groups, explains who wasn’t counted.

So Red states over count whites but undercount blacks, etc to an even greater degree than they overcount whites, hence the overall under count for red states.

And this part, overcounted Whites and Asians at a higher rate than in 2010, explains who was overcounted.

So blue states did a great job of counting blacks, etc but also overcounted whites which led to the overall overcount for Blue States.

So all states overcount whites and red states undercount blacks, etc leading to the overall result.

I can sort of follow your explanation but I remain skeptical. At any rate, thanks for getting me to re-think the interpretation.

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A possible explanation is that something happened in 2020 that affected getting Census workers or responses. Maybe something major like a pandemic occurred. Follow up was more limited in 2020 because of fewer Census workers, and so some people who couldn’t bother filling out the form weren’t counted.

Overcounts in Hawaii may have been due to military (Pearl Harbor). Massachusetts because of college students. April 2020 was a strange time.

From the OP article: “By comparison, no states had a statistically significant miscount in the 2010 census, based off the post-enumeration survey. However, in 2000, the bureau found 21 states had an overcount.”

“We estimated undercounts for Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. We estimated overcounts for Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Utah… Specifically, we estimated a statistically significant net undercount among people living in the 20 percent of tracts with the lowest self-response rates… Possible overcount: This occurred when a respondent indicated that a person usually lives or stays at college, in the military, at their job, in jail, at a nursing home, with relatives, at a seasonal home, or other places.”
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/coverage-…

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The Census always undercounts, in part because it relies on people returning forms. When I was younger, I never returned mine. Didn’t care. And was distrustful of “Big Brother” (especially after I spent a summer working for the Polk Directory*…actually, less than a summer because it made me uncomfortable, so I quit). When I learned that it affected how federal dollars are allocated, I started returning the form.

So, unless a state makes a concerted effort get a high return rate, and assure skittish people that it’s not a Big Brother thing, lots of forms will end up in the trash. As mine did.**

So it makes sense that there will be a correlation between states that invested in outreach, and percentage of forms returned (and therefore, how many people were counted).

** Since it’s only every ten years, I think the first one I returned was when I was 37. When I was 27 I didn’t see the point, and was suspicious why they wanted to know.

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I can sort of follow your explanation but I remain skeptical. At any rate, thanks for getting me to re-think the interpretation.

Skepticism is good, to a point. Let me try one slightly different approach.

The Census Bureau does a census every 10 years per the Constitution. The CB also looks at the population using the Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) and Demographic Analysis Estimates (DA). All three (census, PES, and DA) use different methods.

The headline, paraphrasing, was the PES/DA showed that the census over counted blue states and under counted red states.

Another completely accurate headline could have been the census shows that the PES/DA over counted red states and under counted blue states.

Let me sidetrack with a personal anecdote. In my former life I was a CFO for 2 different organizations. Despite the fact that the CEO was breathing down my neck for financial statements every month, I never released the numbers until I looked at the results comparing my own analysis of major accounts vs the financial statement results. In other words, I knew what the approximate results should be from my analysis before I had the financial statements. They never exactly matched, but if they were close, I could release the financial statements with confidence.

That’s all that is happening with the census being compared to the PES/DA. They don’t exactly match, but they’re close.

The only absolute guarantee I can give is that neither the census nor the PES/DA are 100% correct. In fact, if they exactly matched, I would think someone fudged numbers. They’re both looking at the same population but using entirely different methods.

Humans are bad at counting large amounts of things. This is true even when they count static things such as ballots. I’m never surprised when election recounts have minor changes. Actually, I’d be a little suspicious if a recount gave the exact result twice. As long as the recount differences are immaterial and don’t change the result, I have more confidence in the results. That’s also why it’s a good idea to recount extremely close results. Numbers can change a little.

The way I see it, the census and the PES/DA analysis are close enough for government work. By default, we use the census. Just like I used the financial statements as the default, not my personal analysis. The differences are not material. After all, accounting is part science and part art.

I’d wager that partisan gerrymandering has a much bigger impact on the make up of the House.

So, my main point is there is no need to jump to conspiracy theories when it comes to the census vs PES/DA.

But if you want to talk about conspiracies, just start a thread on UFO/UAPs. I’m all in.

AW

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