If true, this will bring the Chinese economy to a standstill. If this happens what are the economic consequences for The West going to be:
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Another question is, when things start really going south, will China back-track in order to stem this? And if so, can they even do that quick enough to make a difference to the eventual outcome? The 800-million scenario requires no deviation from current policy.
Politically dangerous for Xi as the Chinese see the rest of the world putting Covid way behind them.
At least the Chinese will be more careful with research in future and/or clean up those markets.
The least that we can expect is another covid type supply chain issue.
Maybe they should have used the Westâs vaccines?
Andy
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The other worrisome thing for the rest of the world is the nearly inevitable multifarious virus variations that can spring out of such a huge population of âinfectees.â
Pete
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If it will happen like this, there is no way to stop it. My primary worry is all the new variants that will come out of this new wide spreading âŚ
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Right it starts in China and then spreads. We just need to watch the hospitals to see how bad it is getting.
Andy
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Couple things about this. At current mortality rates for the Virus (not considering those with comorbidities and those older than their mid-80s), that âonlyâ works out to roughly 2.4 million deaths. How the PRC population reacts to that is an open question.
The other thing is that 800 million cases likely significantly understates the size of the outbreak. Lots of infections will go unreported, and so they wonât become cases. That will be especially true in the PRC where the population is disincentivised against self-reporting out of dismay over lockdowns, quarantines, and the like.
Eric Hines
*See, also, Manlobbiâs Shrewdom.com
At current mortality rates for the Virus
Just a note, we know what mortality rates are from current strains when challenging mRNA vaccinated populations / populations with many previous infections generating an immune response.
We do not know what the mortality rate will be in a population without previous covid exposure and without mRNA vaccines.
Mortality rate also varies with number of infections, and quality of health service. For example, in Wuhan February 2020, the death rate was sliding up towards 5-10% at the point they began pouring the countryâs resources into a single city. Because cases that would have been treatable by a doctor or hospital with O2, were not getting help.
EDIT: from memory, the hospitalisation rate for original covid in the pre-vaccine era was 10% or so. But in any situation where a hospital is necessary but becomes inaccessible, mortality rates will tend to slide towards hospitalisation rates.
I saw a video the other day of a middle-aged Chinese woman suffocating to death from covid outside a hospitalâs doors. They apparently wouldnât let her in âbecause she had a feverâ. An (alleged) nurse commented they had seen people present like this often in ER over the last two years and very frequently they were saved by immediate venting.
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China seems to produce most of the worldâs drugs and the supply of âfever drugsâ is drying up because of increased demand in China and possibly workers becoming sick:
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As well as hanging around on a forum for Ukrainians (out of curiosity), I also hang around on a forum for Chinese people and westerners living in China, again out of curiosity.
What I have been reading there for the last 2 weeks is that people are going insane with worry about covid right now, and are taking paracetamol âpre-emptivelyâ each day. Also, temporarily forgetting about traditional medicines and instead stacking up giant piles of paracetamol and ibuprofen at home, as much as they can.
I would not be surprised to see shortages of basic painkillers/antipyretics in some developed countries throughout the coming months.
Anecdotal stories exactly match what you have shared (Divitias).
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There was a blurb this week we face shortages of those medicines but for another reason. Turns out young children here in the US are getting flu, covid, and RSV all at the same time. Walgreens and CVS are moving towards rationing how much parents can purchase to spread out the supply.
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