I have three sheets of paper with disorganized calcs and notes. Trying to figure out how much I am down after hours. And, trying to sort out the general NASDAQ drop has contributed. At the end of regular session I was up 1.7% for the day, and up 14.3% YTD. I had less than 20% of my target price paid for BILL and none of the puts were in the money. I will not restore the shares that were called away last week and the stock price was running away from me.
Then came the good quarterly report, quickly followed by guidance that somehow disappointed the market. Now the stock was up another 8% and the forecast was such that the market might want to claw back that–and even some of the earlier gains of the week. But, … Mr. Market took the airsick bag from behind the in-flight mag and vomited up a 22% hairball. This has left me analyzing the average $10.05 per share premiums I received versus the $117.20 average share price that I will pay this weekend for the shares that are currently worth about $101. The good news is that I have restored my BILL position. Among the bad is that I am 36% overbought. My shares were called away at $111 and, net of premiums, my purchases will be at $107.
But the AH price drop on BILL almost wipes out the portfolio gain for Thursday. Most of the other stocks are down in the 2% range so my YTD high, above, will now be my target. NASDQ was up 3.25% Thursday so my down 2.5% prediction has more work to do than what I want to see.
If, indeed, “all gaps fill”, then all is well in KC’s portfolio.
Just how bad was BILL’s performance and forecast?
Actual Previous Analyst Revenue (millions) 260 156.5 243.6 EPS, Adjusted $0.42 0 $0.13 Q3 Rev Forecast 246 251.5 Q3 EPS Forecast $0.23 $0.13
It is noontime here and I am still on my (normal limit) first cup of coffee. Going to grab a second and one of those Dunkin’ Donuts that a usually avoid like the plague, and listen to the call.
(Those insane premiums were not so irrational after all. Who knows what insights lurk in the minds of the Wall Street pros? Mr. Market does.)
KC