Dreamer Corp - Port Update

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
162

Update on items from my previous post.

  1. Thanks to Raylight for the solution on post sequence.
  2. 3 days now, seems like 3 weeks. I sold another BILL put, this one at $120 strike. Sold with less than 3 days to expiration for $11.50 per share. Does anyone appreciate the insanity of that time premium? Or has my octogenarian [KC misspells 5 times and has to look it up!] mind misfired and I am doing something dumb?
  3. YTD +12.4%, cash 45.3% but only that last put is currently in the money. In this market, by Friday, the $120’s, 117’s, 116’s and $111’s could all be in the money.
  4. N/A
  5. No change, these market spasms are driving me nuts.
  6. VERI up another 18%. This “joke” stock is now up 95.5% for me and is my largest holding. Is this just a computer simulation?
  7. SMG picked a good day for earnings. Up 11.5%. Position up 35% but little joy as I have only a 1/3 position

I note that the Fear and Greed is reading 70, bottom of Extreme Greed range. Also note that this is lowered by a junk bond Fear reading and a neutral volatility rating. Hare to imagine that VIX is in neutral with all these gyrations. I am skeptical of this rally and predict that the NASDQ is down from here, …2.5% by end of week.

KC

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I have three sheets of paper with disorganized calcs and notes. Trying to figure out how much I am down after hours. And, trying to sort out the general NASDAQ drop has contributed. At the end of regular session I was up 1.7% for the day, and up 14.3% YTD. I had less than 20% of my target price paid for BILL and none of the puts were in the money. I will not restore the shares that were called away last week and the stock price was running away from me.
Then came the good quarterly report, quickly followed by guidance that somehow disappointed the market. Now the stock was up another 8% and the forecast was such that the market might want to claw back that–and even some of the earlier gains of the week. But, … Mr. Market took the airsick bag from behind the in-flight mag and vomited up a 22% hairball. This has left me analyzing the average $10.05 per share premiums I received versus the $117.20 average share price that I will pay this weekend for the shares that are currently worth about $101. The good news is that I have restored my BILL position. Among the bad is that I am 36% overbought. My shares were called away at $111 and, net of premiums, my purchases will be at $107.
But the AH price drop on BILL almost wipes out the portfolio gain for Thursday. Most of the other stocks are down in the 2% range so my YTD high, above, will now be my target. NASDQ was up 3.25% Thursday so my down 2.5% prediction has more work to do than what I want to see.
If, indeed, “all gaps fill”, then all is well in KC’s portfolio.

Just how bad was BILL’s performance and forecast?

                      Actual      Previous     Analyst
Revenue (millions)     260          156.5        243.6
EPS, Adjusted         $0.42           0          $0.13
Q3 Rev Forecast        246                        251.5
Q3 EPS Forecast       $0.23                      $0.13

It is noontime here and I am still on my (normal limit) first cup of coffee. Going to grab a second and one of those Dunkin’ Donuts that a usually avoid like the plague, and listen to the call.

(Those insane premiums were not so irrational after all. Who knows what insights lurk in the minds of the Wall Street pros? Mr. Market does.)

KC

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164

BILL headed towards 52 wk low soon or overkill drop?

Work travel week so have been busy!
Will catch up this weekend.

Was down about 1% at close yesterday, ytd.

May claw some back today. BMR peaked?

Dreamer

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165

The BILL carnage not too bad. E*Trade seems to automatically subtract premium from put price… I don’t remember seeing that before. So even though my strike prices were $111 to 122, my cost is shown at $106.47. My total cost is about 6.5% of portfolio value versus 5% target. I’ll have to either sell a few shares (opportunistically, as they say), or let the portfolio value grow into the BILL position. Hmm, guess I’d need a +30%. I’m sure I’ll have to sell.

I ended Friday at up 10.7% YTD, down from “all year high” of 14.3 % on 2/2.
VERI up another 18.7% on the day, up 108% overall. Fell to #2 position thanks to the BILL debacle.
G’nite,
KC

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166

increased my S&P short ahead of Powell. depending if there is a quick drop, this may be a trade or I may ride for a while.

As usual, I seem to be early on things, which means S&P probably rockets from here. Who knows.

glta,
Dreamer

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Also - I am just about even YTD. I was down about 1% last week, but market cooled since.

Dreamer

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I guess this might be case of “first move is always wrong” about Fed pressers?

Either way, I am, momentarily, a genius.
What I am in an hour from now, though, is anyone’s guess.

Dreamer

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169

Not sure that lasted an hour.
I am an idiot.

Dreamer

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What an ego trip that must be. Billions made or lost with every utterance. FIrst, The Chairman was the smiley maternal grandfather and the market soareth. Then, a granddaughter came in to dinner inappropriately dressed and The Chairman’s scowl sent the market into freefall–until The Chairman passed gas and smiled which re-ignited the euphoria for the rest of the evening (and Dreamer’s trade went all to Hell and KC’s loss day ended up Up half a percent or more.

Buy the dip, sell the tip.

KC

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171

I prefer buy the dip, short the rip!

Dreamer

ps…I may be a genius today. Again. Validating. Let you know results later.

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172

I removed the extra shorts at a wash.
Basically about 55% shoet

Dreamer

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173

not much of an update, just current thinking:

174

annnnnnnd market down and I am just about back to flat YTD.
Can’t make this stuff up.

Universe hates me.

Dreamer

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Dreamer’s day disappointing, how 'bout yours, KC?

Glad you asked… :slight_smile:

Well, my number 3 position based on amount invested became my #7 based on value. Seems VFC cut its dividend a couple of days ago and Mr. Market took belated notice.

Affirm was a sub 1.5% position and dropped 18%. As usual, weak guidance but also a miss. I bought the dip and captured a massive 1.3% gain which I more than coughed up after hours.

UPST now a 2% position after falling 13%–probably in sympathy with AFRM. My UPST short puts are now just $4 out of the money. Earnings on the 14th so I might get back to a 3/4th’s position there.

Then I realized that DOCS earnings would be out after hours and I decided to get out of the way, at least with regard to the puts that I was short. DOCS beat on earnings and revenues but suffered the usual bathing based on guidance. However, it may have been only a shower, down only 5% to $34.75 and the puts were $32.50. Probably a losing move there, too. Sigh.

Anyway, up only 7.1% YTD. 31% cash plus 2% T-bills.

KC

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176

Enjoy weekend all…quick update

A music worm for ya

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177

Increased index shorts to about 64%.

Cajones, D.

Maybe buy calls at up15% or so?

Anyway, only good news I had is that I pocketed about $500 of option premiums for the week. No, not true. DOCS does not have weekly options. Another week on that one. Make it $400 expired. Wheee!

Other than that, bought some GLBE twice, SPG and OKE once, PVH thrice and AFRM once. All those underwater except on PVH buy. Still inching towards being fully invested.

32% cash, 2% Treasuries, Up 5.5% YTD, minus 6.1% in February.

KC

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Just an update to this. I sold 2/3 of the calls after the earnings surge. May get back in if it pulls back enough. If it doesn’t, well that is what the other 1/3 is for.

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179

Ok.
CPI tuesday could be an up or down catalyst, but i think i have waited long enough.

Increased index shorts to about 64%. Rest on cash.

I am flat ytd.
If indexes spike, i use dry powder on Puts and/or increase shorts.

First SPY target 3600.

I think there is a good chance of a pullback to 3600-3750. But it might not be for another month or two. Not sure what time frame you are planning on. And of course, I could be terribly wrong.

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180

I had rather planned to reduce my hyperpostiing activity, but–well–you know… UPST.

The quarterly was simply awful. The early response was quite muted. So what happened? Two things, apparently. One, the short interest was in the neighborhood of 35% as I recall. Two, in the conference call, UPST revealed that they were close to an agreement, or agreements to obtain a secure source of funding. Unfortunately for me, I woke up 45 minutes late so did not hear the live call (started about 5:10 or 5:15 a.m. here). Then, I could not find the recorded call and of course no transcription. So, I missed that bit of news. Apparently, the market missed it after hours, too, or missed the significance of it.

That funding source is the light at the end of the tunnel. I did not learn of it until I read Bert Hochfeld’s post during Wednesday’s session.

In the week before earnings I had those $12.50 puts so did not want to buy
shares and end up over invested if I should have shares put to me. What I did as a substitute was to buy AFRM on its dip. Made a sort of basket of fintech. That brought me to a 60% position. Then on Tuesday, as the price fluctuated, I made a tiny purchase of UPST. It was sort of a marker and a psycho-crutch so that if there was a post earnings pop I would have a small benefit and board to whack myself up side the head for not having bought more. :slight_smile:
That purchase is now up 37%. [How does that head feel, KC?] Those AFRM shares appreciated 12+% yesterday also, so that is a little aspirin therapy.

What now? Yesterday’s volume was about 35% of outstanding shares so I think much of the short covering has already occurred. I sold 25% of the UPST position towards he end of the session (yes, in the wee hours of the morning here). I expect (or perhaps only hope) that the share price will retreat in the next 5 to 10 days. I have not placed a limit order. So far, just an alert at around $16.50–can’t remember exactly.

I keep adding bits and pieces of various positions. The price action is in the dogs and cats:

UPST    28%
AFRM    12%
ONDS    11%
DOCS    10%
STEM     8%
ENVX     8%

Then finally an old hypergrower shows up:  BILL 6%

ZI  was #8 on the daily gain list
ZS      #9
DDOG    #16
CRWD    #17
S       #18
GLBE    #21
SNOW    #23

For one day, I was on the right side with the right stocks

I am now 29% cash, 2% Treasuries, and up 12.0% YTD. Still looking up at my YTD high of 14.3%.

I recommend your reading this if you have interest in UPST:

KC

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181

Too busy w work trips, but back to even ytd today, with the aid of a couple small/profitable puts on nvda and spy that i bought tues and sold early wed. Mentioned it on twitter but not here. Starting to like and get a feel for the puts/options. Dont want to abuse it though until i am more seasoned.

Still about 64% shorts. Rest cash.

Dreamer