Dreamer Corp - Port Update

NET near 35? That would imply nearly 30% down from here for one the stronger performers. Below $40 was a gift imho. It retraced all the way to a previous resistance level and triggered my this-is-getting-ridiculous-o-meter.

For me, NET is the one stock i wouldn’t wanna be 0% invested in. It’s crowded and as long as they keep “Oops, we just invented yet another TAM” it’ll probably continue to command a high and unpredictable valuation.

I’m long DDOG as well, but don’t understand why not at least initiate a tiny starter position on NET too?

(Currently long NET SNOW DDOG, S BILL, ZI MNDY, ZS, UPST)

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Hi Raylight,

KC could probably explain this more eloquently, but the reason for not buying NET now, vs at a new 52 wk low, is:

Dreamer’s Third Law of POMO - all ideal stock entries are at 52 wk lows.

Which is closely correlated with:

Dreamer’s 17th Law of POMO - loosely translated as “dude…it’s a bear market, and we are relentlessly grinding downward until the prices are so low that you WON’T want to buy, even though you should.”

I am still working on Dreamer’s Laws 1, 2, and 4 thru 16.

Dreamer

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Sold S, T, and UPST.
T was 5% gain and better-than-cash play. No need to be greedy.
S was 10% gain, and I had gut feeling our little 2-3 day rally may falter.
UPST was 20% gain. Like them long-term, but 20% was too much/too quick not to take gains. Will revisit if it retraces as expected.

Waited too long to sell the DDOG, SPG, or PTLO, so will see if the BMR is over or perhaps I get another chance to sell higher in AH or later this week.

I got the port “up” to only being down -12% YTD, so baby steps gained again.

Dreamer

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I sold everything.
Again.

(sigh)

I know. I know. I am well-intentioned, but still doesn’t feel like the bottom to me, and had a nice run, and this early-morning pop was too much for me to pass up.

DDOG wound up being modest 5% gain, SPG was about 13%, and PTLO was only about 1% (which was weird price action in itself for that long a time).

Will live to fight another day.

Dreamer

ps…I used Edit feature (yay!) to add that, yes, I am always early it seems, so probably got more BMR to go, but trying like heck to manage risk in a bear market while getting back to even for the year. Now at -12%.

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Buzzkill.
All kidding aside, I admire your ability and willingness to trade the volatility. It’s something I’ve never mastered and no longer attempt. I enjoy the portfolio updates and market commentary, so thank you. And I know how to quote stuff, too.

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I bought 1% allocation in KWEB. Low $18s

What could go wrong? China ADRs are scams, Xi just took over the country, China still doing the zero covid thing.

Bottom, no?
Will see.

Dreamer

also bought .5% allocation in XPEV, the China Tesla wannabe.

Stopping there. 1.5% of port in China is max.

No one knows the bottom, but if we mean-revert at all to even early Oct levels, both of these are easy bounce/gain winners.

Rest still in cash.

Dreamer

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back in UPST for 1% allocation.
No other reason than it has been working to buy at the 52 wk low lately and catch the bounce from 20/21 to 24/25.

Of course, earnings could be a big catalyst down, so who knows.
Adding slowly and in small increments

Dreamer

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sold everything after 1 day.
UPST and XPEV were 12-13% gains.
KWEB was 4-5% gain (got in a bit too early yesterday).

No point in holding fickle (worthless?) China ADRs I don’t believe in long-term…was always a bounce trade.

UPST for no other reason than I cant see how they have a good ER coming up with the macro backdrop, so wait and see approach.

Now we have ERs incoming. I figure most are probably ok in tech space…backwards-looking and not a huge economy/recession impact yet.

So should lead to bounces that I would fade or ignore.

Will I finally be able to buy and hold in Nov or Dec if/as new lows are found?
We will see.

Either way, port getting closer to the “only” down 11% range, but we still have to call it -12% at moment. My stumbles in April and June really cost me. Haven’t lit the world on fire, but have managed to avoid worse drawdowns lately.

I think I peaked intra-month at -20/21%, but worst ending position was about 17-18%, so working my way back.

Dreamer

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bought 1% of META at Dec 2016 prices. Too early on the ol’ metaverse, but a stock bounceback could happen. Could also drop farther tomorrow during reg mkt hours, so just a small allocation.

boy was I early on this loser. $107 and falling in AH still…17% down.

Wowza.
Can’t chase, as it might be 25-30% down in reg hours tomorrow, at this rate.

Dreamer

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NVDA & AMD are up this morning due to the CAPEX increase to datacenter. Short term bounce, IMO.

Meta said it now expects 2022 capex to be in the range of $32 billion to $33 billion, updated from previous guidance of $30 billion to $34 billion. The company now expects capex for 2023 to be between $34 billion and $39 billion, driven by investments in data centers, servers and network infrastructure.

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darn it…looks like I put my AMZN AH limit order in too low at this point. Oh well. Let’s see if tomorrow is carnage or not.

AWS is worth a lot. The rest is just gravy. At some point, AMZN will be low enough to buy.

Dreamer

agree on short-term bounce…NVDA came close to the original $106 first call, but I still hold out hope for $88.

After reading your posts, I have to ask: Why are you trading so much? It’s not evident that you have any particular edge, especially during these times in which the Fed is intent on smacking folks who’ve conflated their stock gains during a time of ZIRP with their market savvy. You could very well end up losing much of what you have (left).

Recall that someone else is on the other side of every trade you make, and you’re assuming that you consistently know more about the (near-term) future of those shares than the other guy does.

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Dreamer, KC, can you kindly direct me to the thumbs down button?

traders gonna trade

MisterFungi,
I believe the bear market is still the macro trend.
I have been expecting this since 2019. Covid 2020 nonsense and free money got things even more out of whack. Some of the craziness continued until about Nov 2021.

So around March lows, I was so conditioned by market ignoring the overdue correction, that I (along with many others) incorrectly thought perhaps that was it and this was just a relatively short correction and the nonsensical valuations would continue.

This led to poor investments in April that may or less linger for me YTD. Take away April, and I am probably flat from being largely in cash for 80-90% of this year.

What I am doing is trying to gain little bits back…0.5% here, maybe 1% there, by buying some stocks at lows on extreme down days and playing the likely relief bounces.

It has worked a little bit. I haven’t put much at risk, so I also don’t make much back, but I went from about 18% down to about 12%.

So that is why I am trading. I have certain target prices in mind to go long, and most of the stocks are still well-above those targets, so I bide my time.

Or I could just put my head in the sand and believe valuation doesn’t matter and be down 50%+, but I decided not to go that route. (shocker)

Dreamer

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For reference, I am still 59% above my 2021 starting port balance.
Pretty sure most folks adhering hard to LTBH on most growth stocks find themselves back to 2020 port levels.

I don’t think I am doing too bad, all things considered.

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Your response was very thoughtful, much more so than mine

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Much relieved to hear that. The “valuation doesn’t matter” folks are learning an expensive lesson.

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