My Monday pre-market thoughts.
CNN fear/greed index is 60, sort of mild greed. I have a defensive bias.
I have only two short options positions, both Nov 18 expiry. SPG $110 and UPST $20. Too much time premium. However, I am inclined to buy-to-cover. My SPG shares are $88.80 average buy price and SPG closed at $108.96. The options are $3.82 vs.$1.51 sell or negative $2.31 if I cover. But I have premiums of $3.83 in October so I’m breakeven. Thinking of closing the options which allows me to sell the shares and take that $20 profit.
Thinking of covering the UPST, also I’m down $2.31/share on the options but I am up $2.43 on the shares and I have had recent options expire out of the money for $2/share. So, a win and I free up the cash that secures the short put.
That is what I can do in this volatile but sideways market. This is FOMO territory, after all. Not picking on Saul, I have no standing to criticize. But in May he was down to 40.3% of 2021 year end and has gone up to 49.2% and now back down to 39.7%. That is sideways for 6 months.
SQ earnings on 11/3, so I won’t be trading options there this week. UPST and DDOG on 11/8. I am 45% cash, 2% very short term treasuries, 15% SPG, 15% CRWD, 5% DDOG and 4% GLBE and various dogs, cats and cigar butts. I am expecting good earnings, so micro versus macro. Seems whatever earnings pops we might get will fade in the next weeks. That is recent history.
So I will go mildly “fear” versus the market’s mild “greed”. That’s Plan A. Good luck to all.
bought 1% in AMZN.
Just what is AWS by itself worth, at over $80b/yr runrate at 20-30% growth rate?
They are nearly triple size of CRM (Salesforce) as an example.
Given the LOTR debacle, I don’t think much of Prime Video as a driver of anything, but I actually do use the free amazon music…again, not sure how they make money there, then.
But in a pinch, and need to buy something quickly…is there a better alternative when you know the exact thing you need and aren’t sure it will be at the store?
Is AMZN making gains in ad space…even if environment for ads are weak at moment?
In short, I think the downside is somewhat limited…I don’t see it being cut in half from here, due to AWS alone. Another 20% lower? Sure, maybe. But could also be due a bounce if we continue with a BMR.
added small amounts to DDOG and AMZN at new lows.
Still 90%+ cash. But figure we may get a big reaction to Fed either way…so want a bit of skin in the game if we pop.
Either Saul is really really wrong about DDOG valuation, or this is a buying opp. I have to keep remembering his disdain for the schmuck that dared to wait until DDOG retraced to $135 before he bought.
Meanwhile, DDOG at $75 today. Good times.
Will buy more in the 60s.
I bought a sliver of 1% in UPST
Upgraded my DDOG, AMZN, and META to 3% each.
Essentially 10% invested now, 90% cash.
Could very well see some of the growth stocks pop in ERs tomorrow, but I think those moves fade eventually.
I know I keep saying I will hold longer and just put the current buys “at risk” as I assume they are good long-term, but we will see what I do if I get a decent bounce.
I think we are finally getting close to period (Q3 ERs with Q4 forecasts) that start to hint at weakness.
The chess game from here is:
Macro will suck for a bit. In theory, could go sideways or plunge from now until mid-2023, when hope is that we have paused hikes and/or are starting to see hope that by end of 2023 that rate reductions may even be on table if inflation under control. Since market looks ahead, at this moment in time I don’t see myself wanting to be waiting on lower prices by mid-2023. Even late Spring 2023 may be too late. Rather be a bit early than late, I guess.
If weakness/recession doesn’t hit growth/cloud/software enterprise type of spend by Feb (Q4 ERs / 2023 Forecasts) than we may be at a stalemate where growth stocks may finally hit growth rate lows in Q1/Q2 2023, but they won’t announce ER results of those until May/Aug. See point #1.
Can you see why I am chagrined a bit that the growth stocks haven’t capitulated more by now? It is all about the timing.
I want to be long.
But I want to be long when the time seems right.
Explain to me, after hearing Powell, and before any bad news has even started to really hit ERs (for stocks like DDOG or SNOW, etc) that the worst is behind us, so here comes the rocketship and wen lambo bros can rejoice now?
I am just a guy on the internet.
But I tried to tell you the 2020 results of these “saul stocks” were a joke.
Now you got an entire board of “gurus” that have decimated the results of anyone new to their board since likely 2019.
Before you point out Saul’s record of decades-long success, please remember that even in 2016/2017 he was still looking at PE stocks like LGIH.
I think DDOG could get cut in half from here, strictly on valuation.
And DDOG could also go up 40% from here, due to habitual btfd nonsense. So I will put some money in play and see what happens.
bought a sliver of S.
trying to buy ROKU, but it is not cooperating/capitulating enough.
Wound up with a bit more DDOG late last night.
Almost 12% invested.
I’m one of those with decimated results (but I’m not blaming any of the gurus). Feels like an orc burning in the sun. The light, it burns…
Forgot to mention, i think, i bought 1% UPST.
A bit more AMZN.
About 14-15% invested now.
Ready for BMR or lower lows.
Also ready for NET near or below 52 wk lows. TWLO probably not worth it except for quick bounce.
Ok…bought some TWLO premarket at -25% discount. Can it be like ROKU and get to something like -11% by EOD for a quick trade? Dunno. Seems like overkill for the average ER results I saw.
Otherwise, pre-market says we rally, which would kind of be lousy as I wanted more sales today.
NET doesn’t seem to be cooperating. Only at mid-Oct lows in pre-market. Hardly earth-shattering. $39 was mid-June low, and well above that still. Hard pass for me.
Dang, it’s a software slam today.
Where’s that POMO lady?
buying TWLO was a horrible idea. Gah!
Should always stick to just buying the companies I like the most when they are at lows, vs misc crap getting crushed.
Nice to see NET and BILL being humbled, but need to go much lower.
Let’s start being honest, folks. Get 2020-2021 out of your mind. Even 2019 was a joke. Get back to remembering that you thought a 10-12 P/S was rich, and you will start to get it.
Until then, you are hopeless.
Hey…is MNDY still holding up really well, as Saul’s board folks said? Oh, wait. Nope. Bought 1%.
Bought 1% NET.
Added to S.
Added to UPST
Still regretting TWLO
Watching the tickers. May be a day I wind up getting to 60-70% cash.
I still think things can go lower, but also know BMRs are a thing and/or from now until mid-2023 (which is a made-up guesstimate of when market may finally feel Fed has paused and is pricing in end of 2023 by looking out 6 months) I need to get positioned.
Newsflash: Should have just went all in on PTLO and SPG. That’s it. As simple as that. But we fall in love with this concept that growth stocks MUST be better investments. Based on what? TWLO, OKTA, and every other SaaS/cloud stock has erased most of 2020 gains and many are back to 2018.
Ironic thing: Their market caps are still relatively higher though, thanks to SBC. Oh yeah…SBC…that thing Saul’s board tells you doesn’t matter.
I feel bad for TMF. Changed board format and likely lost users, and remaining most-watched board is a bunch of guys in an echo chamber who built their house thesis on a faulty foundation and are riding it into the ground.
Funny thing is, at some point Saul/board will be correct, and those will be the stocks to buy. Just a matter of how low they go first. If you are down 70%, you need to more than triple your port just to get back to even. Crazy.
continuing to add to DDOG, S, NET…everything…UPST.
About 25% invested now.
Could all have MUCH further to fall, but the idea of having these cost basis entry prices at the beginning of the year would have had me laughed off of TMF by the smug Saul board leaders.
S at 19
MNDY at 80
NET at 40
DDOG at 70
UPST at 19
Still have my META/AMZN, but not adding to them, barring further notable collapse.
Can we get a huge push down in final hour? Dunno…but willing to deploy another 25% if we get exciting opportunities.
Basically playing with the 401k and my ind account all in cash. No messing around with a recession inbound. We need the market to be at such a low and dismal point where you DON’T want to invest…that is when you probably should. That is what I am holding out for in my personal account…utter capitulation. Because I think that ensures me the greatest CAGR is coming 2-3-4 years if I can deploy at the right time.
Meanwhile, the hundreds (thousands?) of poor sap followers of Saul’s board, most of whom can’t even post if they wanted to, are treated to the sound of crickets. That’s real leadership for ya.
I hate META in principle. Never use Facebook. But, I am buying some LEAPS. I think that TikTok may have some risks and users may end up having to migrate elsewhere eventually. I can see META doubling from here in the next year or two.
“The poor sap followers” of Saul´s board FINALLY got what they deserve.
In the last two years the board had become horrible because the moderators were letting through far too many useless postings.
Truth is that the current situation is ideal, those who post (even though they have similar portfolios) know what they are talking about.
I miss Champ, hope he´s OK; too bad that the board doesn´t exist anymore.
OT: “The Peripheral” is a very good tv-show, William Gibson being one of my favorite SF authors. I tried to read the book but it seemed way too smart for me. SF is often a real challange if you are not a native English speaker.
But I won´t give up, because the book is probably much more complex than the series.
Have a good weekend everybody!
This new board format is about as successful as New Coke. Is it time to go back to the original?
bought a bit more of UPST, S, and NET.
but offset it with selling half my META on their spike today.
The dead cat bounce for META never really occurred, and while I like Metaverse concepts long-term, and think Instagram has value, I think META is taking too long to show anything “new” or cool with their spend. So this was always a bit more of a trade. May keep remaining now that I at least got rid of the excess from buying too soon after initial ER fall.
Bought some TTD. Couple thoughts:
- tough ad environment, macro-wise
- great ad environment, politics-wise (mid-terms)
- ctv been promised for years
- Disney/Netflix the biggest titans, and both rolling out ad tiers. HBO/Discovery probably not far behind.
The TTD thesis has remained unbroken since I heard of them in 2016/17.
The stock rocketed from split-adjusted $4/$5 per share to over $90 during covid insanity.
I sold at $26.5 on Jan 2020, before covid. I rode it from $4 or so cost basis…huge winner.
I feel like it could/should get back to low $30s, like $32, and possibly into the $20s again. I sold it at the time thinking it was overbought and didn’t want to be greedy.
I know the universe doesn’t revolve around me, but kind of felt like if I didn’t buy now, the stock would of course rally, and ER is tomorrow morning. On flip side, if I do invest, then maybe stock crashing 25%+ tomorrow. So with some skin in the game, I feel I can win either way, as I would buy more if a real crash occurs.
In at $43, not quite 3% allocation.
About 70% cash left.
I have lost 2% off the port since deploying 30% of cash into current and former Saul stock favorites, and general tech/cloud stocks.
My biggest current winner is META of all things. #SAD
Edited to add: and they all need to go lower before I add more. Still waiting on ER’s for S, GLBE, MNDY. Still waiting on TTD to fade more, and PTLO to stop torturing me and get back to $18 already. Be nice if SPG wanted to revisit the $80s/90s.
Sold remaining META on today’s strength (basically due to them firing a crap-ton of people) and poured that back into bits of TTD, AMZN, and DDOG.
Curious to see if this is peak losses or gets worse.
I can see “the market” having a narrative either way based on midterm results getting clearer, the bitcoin collapse, or whatever excuse they want to use to either waterfall or moon.