Science/news/links
2 Likes
Yes I too believe itās a good fundamental investment but having invested in good company fundamentals in unloved sectors can be frustrating. ESPR had lotās of good news the last 6 months and mostly bounced along at the bottom until recently. All of a sudden the good news is finally getting rewarded and I believe thatās relating to market rotation into biotech. Iām a bigger believer with a good company in a good sector. It has been my largest position over the last couple months .
4 Likes
i sold yesterday at $3.3 with a nice profit and will never look back.
Next Biotech plays for me:
$AKBA and $ARDX. They have great leadership, no cash problems (less difficult story) and no history of Short/Manipulations
Maybe something to do with the riseā¦ Esperion Announces New Drug Submissions in Canada for
Cant find fault with booking profits.
However: Their cash position appears, to me, to be solid at moment though, and with increasing sales, decreasing production costs in 2025, and incoming milestones, it is hard to see cash becoming an issue for them.
Also my exit strategy here is largely based on acquisition and/or significant partnership news. I would play it by ear if they somehow continue to go it alone thru all of 2025. Depending on price, I can see myself exiting Jan 2026 to kick tax can down a year. (Similar exits w TTD and SPG)
Dreamer
gerrard - also, if you feel so inclined, maybe start a new thread on AKBA and/or ARDX and tell us a bit about why you like them? Always open to new stock ideas, thanks!
-Dreamer
Oh well. This stock definitely isnāt for the faint-hearted.
Looks like we should have sold on Friday.
Rinse/repeat.
Until a major partnership or buyout actually is announced/occurs, hard to trust the price action up or down.
Dreamer
4 Likes
Hate to say it but there is still a gap at 1.53 from last December.
The original gap was 1.53 to 1.71. It went as high as 3.34 over the next month, then closed some of the gap down to 1.53-1.65 in January. Rallied as high as 3.40 before coming back and reducing gap a tiny bit to 1.53-1.63 on Sep 6 then a few more times to finally 1.53-1.58 on Oct 2. Now it has rallied as high as 3.94.
Soā¦ ESPR gaps up on Dec 14 with a low of 1.71, went as high as 3.34 before rolling over and closing part of the gap. Rallied again to 3.40 before rolling over and closing most of the rest of the gap. Rallied again to 3.94 before rolling over toā¦ close the gap? TBD.
I had an order sitting at 1.54 for months that I let expire when it seemed safely out of that gap range. I added it back.
Maybe the volatility will save my bacon. I had 8% of IRA port in ESPR, but sold as a part of a general ultra-conservative move. Sold pre-election on 10/23 at $2.10. A veritable cra* ton. And then bought back a sliver at $3.59 on 12/5. Gotta love volatility. God looks after fools, drunks, and (so far) the USA.
Speaking of which, my USA adventure continues. An 83 year-old dufus wandering through airports with newly minted apps on his Cell Phone of Mysteries. DW still in Philippinesā¦ Plan āAā is to meet in Singapore on my way back. I know, Singapore is beyond Manila, trans-Pacific-wise, but never let logic interfere with efficiency when finally spending oneās savings.
KC
,
3 Likes
you are sagejawah? otherwise you and some other dude on another site think eerily alike!
KC,
All the Filipina girls in my catholic grade school were so cute and smart.
I am questioning all my lifeās choices now; investing in ESPR and dating/marrying white women.
Should I have pivoted to Filipinas and stuck with SPG and TTD all this time???
Dreamer
1 Like
I am just KC, Mrs. Cās little boy.
KC
1 Like
that note was for the poster right before youā¦
But we are all probably mamaās little boy at heart, I supposeā¦
Dreamer,
- Stay the course on ESPR. Buy the dips.
- SPG and TTD: You are at all-time high (or were) and I would need 8 years to accomplish that unless bitcoin hits $1 millionāso I will defer to others on that.
- Americanized Filipinas are still American women. Filipinas in the Philippinesā¦, like investing in Upstart, did you get lucky and buy at the right time? But, if you are looking for an extended family to support, then enroll in my 3-day seminar or google Filipina Pea.
KC
3 Likes
For a moment, thought you were talking something different since you mentioned Singapore and SPG in the same conversation.
Seems the only ānewsā around the possible sell off
2 Likes
Indeed I am. I read a lot of native american indian books as a kid. Some names stuck with me and Iāve used as handles interchangeably. I think I was originally sagejawah on my first iteration in the early 2000s on TMF.
3 Likes
I get a lot of conflicting noise around NAMS.
- it does lower cholesterol, but seems to be positioned as secondary vs primary market, and Esperion already approved for both.
- it doesnāt do well in hsCRP (inflammation) area
from stocktwits:
āIf the CVOT trial fails, NAMSā drug will be dropped. If the CVOT trial succeeds and label expansion approval is pursued, it is estimated that regulatory approval for ācardiovascular disease secondary preventionā would occur around the second quarter of 2028 or the second quarter of 2029, after data measurement and analysis. Optimistically, if the CVOT trial data is successfully announced around the estimated date of November 2026 (as per clinicaltrials.gov:443/), label expansion could potentially occur around November 2027. All of these scenarios are discussions about events 3 to 4 years from now.ā
Final comment, from a stock perspective: NAMS has no meaningful revenue, still has years of testing (expenses) and will need to keep raising funds, likely with dilution.
I find that the market often awards āpotentialā and NAMS has a higher mkt cap than ESPR despite ESPR having $120m in US sales and more in Europe via their DSE partner, and they are just about breakeven now too. So NAMS is likely a bull trap.
Just look at history of Saul stocks to see how hype/potential drives stock wildly high and then when reality asserts itself it deflates.
ESPR will grow their stock when they:
- prove they can continue their US growth
- partner in additional markets = more royalty aka recurring revenue
- either partner in US or do a buyout
- This is interesting part, and similar to NAMS āhypeā if/when Esperion starts promoting new Indications for bempedoic acid tied to kidney, liver, and oncology, expected in 1H-25, that āpotentialā can increase value of company and stock price.
Dreamer
5 Likes
No $ details but a partnership announced today in Israel. Progress!
2 Likes
Likely cause of volatility this week:
Refinancing of 2025 Notes PR:
Dreamer
4 Likes
