Nothing to see here. Move along, folks.
I am sure it will all be just fine.
1 Like
“Chicken or Beef? Chicken? Would you like that fresh or canned?”
Great! A new KPI, the chicken/beef ratio. Wonder how it correlates to put/call?
I will note that the comp.idx passed 13,000 at the open Tuesday, and managed to hold that level after losing it around 2 p.m. Actual 1-yr high is 13,181, intraday, with a 13,128 close. Tuesday it hit 13,154 and closed at 13,017. (Tha’t’s NASDAQ composite). I-yr low is 10,008. Triple-witching on June 16. I’m kinda nervous.
And, CRWD earnings AMC Wednesday. Pure Storage (PSTG), too. CRWD is 6.4% of port, up 34% (total, not ytd). UPST 3.2% of port and up 8%. Up 8% but I am stubborn. Data is new oil. AI needs data. PSTG is gaining market share. From Bert:
Pure is a specialist in storing unstructured data-that is really the raison d’etre for FlashBlade /E as the linked video shows: https://www.purestorage.com/products/unstructured-data-storage/flashblade-e.html".
PSTG up almost 7% Tuesday, so set up for a downer on earnings. For those of you not keeping score at home, UPST up 17% Tuesday. Portfolio up 11.7% YTD which is quite disappointing and underperforms just about everything I follow.
But, I’m fine, how you?
KC
3 Likes
Doing well, thank you.
These companies have something to do with data: msft, snow, net
Do you like these companies?
snow and net are losing favor in some parts
I hope they don’t go to near zero, as is possible
Mostly,
I don’t follow MSFT, so can’t comment. NET, ditto. I do have SNOW. Had most of the position called away at $162.50. I did not buy it back under $150 for two reasons: 1) I felt no urgency and the aforementioned 13,000 on the NASDQ, and 2) EV/S is 19.5 compared to PSTG at 2.5.
I like Snowflake, the company. FCF is 25% and in absolute terms in growing very, very fast. (PSTG is 28%). SNOW is expensive. I am 83% invested and SNOW is still a half (2.4%) position so willing to have SNOW as a “hold”.
Sorry I can’t provide better detail/data. And, I continue to underperform.
EDIT: I just came across Saul’s EOM report, which I had been waiting for. Might as well add my comments here. Back in late September I made an OP on Why Hold Growth Stocks. At that time I made up a growth stock model which was an equal weight portfolio of the stocks that Saul owned at end of August. By end of 2022, that port was down 24% versus my up 9% so I felt that on relative performance that my thesis was correct. But, what about since then? That model portfolio is up 27.4% YTD versus my 11.8% and Saul’s actual up 6.3%. Saul would have been better off to have been long term buy and hold.
I notice that the SNOW and NET, two of the 3 stocks you mentioned, were dumped by Saul. SNOW was dumped because it is consumption based–not good compared to true leased SaaS. He did not mention valuation, though the unstated is that the high valuation makes SNOW vulnerable as revenue is not predictable. My thought is that this is trading. The consumption model is not news. Why will consumption not return? Perhaps the bloom is off the rose and the EV/S will not recover along with consumption return. As to NET, it was not dumped due to valuation per se, valuation not mentioned. 30% growth is not hyper but quite impressive nevertheless. I note that the 1 and 5 year median EV/S for NET are17.2 and 18 and the current is 17.9. [see EV/S - Cloudflare Inc (NYSE:NET) - Alpha Spread]. Note the 3 year median is 33.7 due to a peak of 94.4 in (of course) November '21. I can’t throw rocks or shake a finger, I was loaded with those stocks at that time. But, NET is up 50% in May. I assume that the EV/S of NET was as low as 11in May. Perhaps it was a time to buy, not sell. But in May, I was buying back UPST which purchases are up 139% and 92%–the entire position up 102%. Anyway, I don’t see NET as compelling and 17.9 is too expensive for me-although I have not studied the company/stock.
KC
2 Likes
There is a thesis that I am in the process of framing up that…
Chips and software will be the true beneficiaries of the AI revolution.
Data, data providers, data management, data storage…etc…will get commoditized in this equation…that means SNOW, MDB, CFLT, ESTC, PSTG, LRCX, etc…
- Storage always get cheaper with time
- Databases have been getting commoditized ever since they were invented
- ETL, data warehouses, data lakes etc. have usually been disrupted by easier to use platforms or cheaper to use solutions or both
- And every one who is selling data at some point sees competition (new sources of the same data) grow
Still framing this thesis so that I can write about it to explain what I mean.
4 Likes
Yep, will look forward to any specific, actionable ideas that you have.
What is your positioning now?
1 Like
I have been writing about the risks of Sentinel One since March 2022…posted multiple times on a well-followed investing board.
I am sure it is not fun to buy at the high and sell at these lows.
And when you have a 12%+ allocation in the stock that you are selling at the lows, you have to reconsider your ability to analyze stocks, monitor their business performance and hold them accountable.
When you decide to stop listening and learning, then past performance is not a guarantee of future results…
may be turnaround after macro improves, still it had quality product. looks NET, SNOW results also similar they reduced guidance. after results every one told same for NET, NOW. but they came back strong. may be worst already priced in for these tech stocks.
we are seeing clear buying after long time. we might experience last pullback but we are near of next uptrend sure.
3 Likes
Did not realize just how good the month of May was until I looked at my portfolio numbers…
May +24%
YTD +40%
Not bragging (because I’m still down significantly from the ATH from Nov '21 - honestly don’t know if I’ll ever get back to that number, it could take quite awhile), but what was really surprising to me is that the 24% May increase is the largest monthly increase I’ve ever had since I started keeping track in 2016! That includes all the crazy 2020/2021 gains, too. I had a couple months in that timeframe of low 20% gains, and a lot of monthly gains between 10-20%, but never as high as 24%. Who would have thought in this environment
I have stayed fully invested, as always, although I pivoted (partially) out of 100% SaaS/hypergrowth in late fall of '22. Luckily invested the money pulled out of the high growth sector into a lot of the larger cap tech stocks when they were all hitting recent lows at the time (NVDA, NFLX, AAPL, MSFT, TSLA), along with even some dividend payers as I wanted less volatility in the portfolio after the previous year of month after month beatdowns.
Also went from a portfolio of 10-12 stocks to over 25 now, again, surprising that the larger portfolio performed better than the concentrated portfolio ever did, even in the supercharged Covid years invested in SaaS/hypergrowth.
Not necessarily expecting this to continue, but it sure has been a nice change.
6 Likes
What was today like?
Edit:
Realized you sold out of the hyper growth…so your day probably wasn’t that bad. A lot of names down 6-8% today. No apparent reason.
ROKU up big.
ONDS up almost 20% (yay penny stocks!)
Nothing making a lot of sense lately.
Still waiting on the top to get confirmed…somehow.
Dreamer
Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, and continues quantitative tightening. Run for the hills… LoL
that’s the only news I can find. Maybe everyone fears the Fed is gonna raise rates again.
Expectation going in was 80% chance of continued pause for BoC. Granted they were paused for 4 months already I believe. Ultimately maybe just a reminder that US FED may not be done rasing rates just yet.
Although, I don’t get how the FED says they are data dependent then 2-3 weeks before next weeks FED meeting they hint they are not going to rase next week. There is a CPI number coming out the day before the FED meeting next week.
I guess it’s possible they pause next week then could raise at the next meeting July 26th. Who knows but I think the market is overextended and due for a pull back. How far who knows? The market still has expectations of interest rate cuts coming in the fall. We shall see!
2 Likes
Haha, like most any day in 2022!
Well, I sold out of some of my hypergrowth, still hold a lot of the companies, but not at the allocations/concentrations that I did prior to pivoting 6+ months ago to what I thought would be a less volatile portfolio. So I was still down over 3% yesterday, but have clawed back 2/3’s of yesterday’s drop so far today.
The Fed: More rate hikes to come
The Market: Hold my beer
Yeah, I know one day doesn’t mean anything, and things could go negative before the end of the day, but it’s nice (in my mind anyway) to see the market not reacting so directly to Fed speak. Being pretty fully invested (4% cash), and up over 60% from my low, and closing in on 50% YTD, I think it’s time to trim and take some funds off the table. At least that was one “lesson learned” I told myself I would follow after enduring the horrible run from Nov '21 through Dec '22, and seeing so many gains evaporate during that time. Just didn’t expect it to happen so soon.
Now, whether to trim the winners or the losers…
3 Likes
my 2023 timing has been horrible. no other way to put it.
It is one of those “I think I am both right and still wrong” situations, as no one can explain how things are better now thru next 6-9-12 months vs a year ago in June 2022.
The RATE of inflation may have slowed, but we are still piling 4-5% inflation on top of the previous 8% or whatever it was last year, on top of whatever it was the year prior (4%?). Everything is more expensive. There is no more stimmy money, the student loan forgiveness ends soon, and we are seeing softness in many areas of economy.
Just at my fortune 500 business, which services much of F500/F100/F10 businesses in US, we are about to wrap up our 2nd weak Q in a row. Many lines of hardware and software IT vendor lines of business are clocking in around 75% to goal, and given we have uplift over previous year, that probably means a net of 10-15-20% or so down year over year.
Enterprise businesses are not spending more.
Just looking at top hypergrowth stocks in 2019-2021, such as DDOG, SNOW, and others, you see consumption down. Cloud titans are still growing, but growth rate keeps shrinking.
But just as market can ignore reality and reasonable valuations in post-covid 2020 and 2021, so too can we just bury our heads in the sand and ride the FOMO wave.
Call it a character flaw, or investing flaw, but I just can’t find the willingness to jump on a FOMO train when macro environment is screaming about incoming softness or 2H recession.
Some things to consider: pundits online will point out that markets tank at sign of first Fed cut usually…bc it signals the recession fears are real or whatever. Fair enough…so I have been too early in my pessimism.
My workplace has been a canary in the coal mine for me previously, so despite missing out on this epic YTD market run, and now being down slightly YTD, I am not too worried, because I think it is more my timing than a broken thesis.
Of course, in hindsight I should have just longed everything after last June or Oct or Dec lows. Woulda coulda shoulda.
Still believe I will make up for it on upcoming downside, and then catch (hopefully) stocks I like at good entry lows.
Just kind of stinks that I am not also up 30% on this (imo) BS market melt-up, and that I am only just flipping long. But that is akin to dreaming about what to do with the MegaMillions $1b lotto winnings, or how if you had a time machine you would put it all in Monster Energy stock, etc etc… No point except to say, every day, what do I think is the sanest move from this moment on, over the next 6-9-12 months. That is still that I believe this rally is built on a bad foundation that will bust apart.
Unfortunately, I felt that way 6 months ago, too.
Take profits while you can. My 2 cents. But why take my advice at this point…just a guy on the internet, missing out on a market run.
Dreamer
7 Likes
HI Dreamer, i think you still doing far better then so many, of course you missed year to date up but when you compare with the people like me who lost 80% from peak and got 30 to 40% year to date.
you can get in again after 5 to 7% index fall and join every one. you do better than the people like me because you lost less and you do not need recover money.
4 Likes
Ok. It is hard to believe…i wrote that only 21 days ago. Yes that was only 3 weeks ago…and since then, my portfolio has only continued to explode higher.
This was even after deleveraging completely, several days ago, and yet my portfolio continued to press higher.
My margin account is now +167.48% YTD and has surpassed my 2021 all time high values.
This is unsustainable. At least, in the short term.
I moved entirely to cash today.
I may just buy SPY tomorrow, and wait for a possible near term correction, and this will be for the next 3 weeks, while I move some of my Fidelity margin account piece by piece (Fidelity has a draconian 100K daily ACH withdrawal limit) to Thinkorswim account (so I can potentially begin trading index futures there, which Fidelity doesn’t offer).
9 Likes
Did that today. Will we miss another 10% squeeze in the indexes? I will probably buy SPY and wait for individual stocks to drop
2 Likes
@jonwayne235 Correct me if I am wrong, I think you wrote previously that you have been trading this year (not investing), right? By that measure, it is probably an apples to oranges comparison to compare your trading results to those of investor’s portfolios.
Different approaches, different timelines, different risk management techniques etc.
Glad to hear that you took profits. That’s what I would have done.
I am more of a long term investor who does a little trading on the side for scotch money. I don’t have the stomach to trade with my entire portfolio. I have never felt compelled to do so, especially now that I am retired. I continue to be surprised with my own results this year. +64% YTD as of yesterday’s close. Last year I was down “only” -21%.
I have been successful layering into stocks that I like when markets were dropping and no one wanted to buy anything…aka when sentiment was at some of the worst…May 2022, Oct 2022 and Dec 2022.
My shopping list and preferred buy points are always at hand. Even though everything looks expensive right now, I have been able to find a few nuggets in the materials space that are being overlooked imo.
Cheers!
7 Likes
Yes, I was “buy and hold” growth stocks until February, then I sold out in that month to begin trading instead. But now, while anticipating a short term correction in the market, I am not sure if better to be in all cash vs buy SPY to avoid missing on further gains if am wrong.
1 Like