The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women…
Here’s the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work…
…on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. This relationship can be measured and quantified by the R-square (R2 ) statistic that measures how correlated the daily casualty count for women is with the daily casualty count for children. If the numbers were real, we would expect R2 to be substantively larger than 0, tending closer to 1.0. But R2 is .017 which is statistically and substantively not different from 0…
The standard Israeli talking point is the Hamas numbers are fabricated. I have seen UN officials on various programs say that, after previous conflicts, the UN investigated, and found that the numbers reported by the “Hamas run” health ministry have been pretty accurate.
Whatever the UN folks say, the numbers don’t pass statistical smell tests.
"The first place to look is the reported “total” number of deaths. The graph of total deaths by date is increasing with almost metronomical linearity…
“One would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. In fact, the daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15%. This is strikingly little variation. There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less.”
An official from the UN talked about the several hundred of their own staff who have been killed in Gaza, as a percentage of their total staff, and it was proportional to the Hamas reported dead at that time.
Reading this it is the PLO not Hamas that is accurate.
More importantly Hamas reports each time with the word, “innocent”. There is no number of militants killed in action. There have been voices that almost no militants have been killed it has only been women and children. Another poorer correlation.
I don’t believe Israel has any means by which to provide such since they are not in complete control of the area. At best, they could make an educated guess - sort of like what the world did when the Al-Ahli hospital was hit by a Hamas missile. Hamas claimed it was an Israeli air strike that killed 471 but after the world analyzed the data, a much lower estimate was determined (between 100 and 300). Without “boots on the ground” there was no way to be accurate.
Eventually, the Anglican diocese that manages the hospital reported 200 people killed. And of course, it was determined to not be an Israeli airstrike but a failed Hamas missile.
Israel is mostly targeting buildings. So there are people at times in those buildings. Mostly there are not because Israel has warned people to leave and they have left the buildings vacant. Those numbers are unknown. Those numbers could be very very sad. The stories in those numbers that we have heard are terrible.
Israel over a month ago declared 9000 militants were killed. Perhaps 2 months ago made that declaration.
The militants were clearly targeted. The count would be “reasonably” accurate assuming some militants lucked out when targeted and survived.
There is also an unknown number of militants flooded in the tunnels or buried by explosives in the tunnels. So the count of 9k militants dead would be higher.
No one wins by calling Israel successful in this war. The Saudis, the Israelis, the Americans, no one would win. Hamas would be unable to fight if they declared the real number of dead militants.
I appreciate the replies, it was a medium-rhetorical question. Whoever’s counting, an estimate is the best that can be provided. No matter it being 1000, 10,000, or 100,000, it’s not the only measure of the devastation in Gaza. Without sufficient aid, many more people are suffering, with nowhere to go.
Not trying to downplay the attack by Hamas, it was horrific. Numbers shouldn’t distract us from the heartbreak experienced on both sides of this conflict.
We have no reason to not trust the data coming from Hamas (Gaza Ministry of Health) except political bias.
Most the news agencies around the world use the Hamas (Gaza Ministry of Health) data. Most government officials around the world use the Hamas (Gaza Ministry of Health) data.
Academics, advocates, and volunteers use data from the Gaza Ministry of Health to estimate the number of civilian casualties. This data includes names, identity card numbers, and other details. Researchers use a variety of methods to estimate the overall toll, including surveys of households after a conflict and scraping social media for accounts posted there.
The Lancet reported in December 2023 that: No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health
The Tablet is a conservative online magazine focused on Jewish news. Why would anyone believe this Jewish magazine to be the great oracle of knowledge on Gaza deaths.
