Hello…POMO.
Been a while.
You look great. Really great. Been treating yourself well? Good.
Missed you.
Seeing you again…well…just makes me want to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOcYTOBA0CI
Dreamer
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KC - hope DW continues to improve!
I did look at AFRM, but noted it was still up a ton since the June lows. Felt like no-mans land to me.
TWLO is back in play. Maybe. Thanks to Friday plunge, right back to near 52 wk low, and again I would just think of it as a trade.
WBD also plunged back, but not quite at 52 wk low. If it gets there again, I may try again. Sounds dumb, but I want to see what I think of 2nd episode of House of Dragons, and decide Monday am.
The almost 4% drop was very POMO-ish, but the BMR had run too long for it all to get reversed in 1-day. Will be interesting to see if Aug tries to finish strong or if this is the start of a BMR reversion.
Either way, woulda/coulda/shoulda but I should have kept my QQQ short on after all.
Such a blah/meh market. Not high enough to think it couldn’t go higher, and not near the lows to expect a pop. Just sideways chop hell.
Dreamer
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The Thought, Vocabulary, and Content Police axed my last post. I don’t know if anyone other than Dreamer read it. So I will include the sanitized version below. One offence was using a three-letter acronym that expresses surprise or critical disbelief. The other possibility is a four-letter acronym for the action of buying stocks when the price has dropped. You Have Been Warned.
Message follows:
Another week, another couple of lessons on neurosurgery. One disappointment in that the incision did not mend as expected so new staples put in place (but this time without the benefit of being anesthetized). Still holding on to my (near) infinite gratitude for DW’s recovery so biting my tongue.
Portfolio-wise.
Just an annoying sideways week with a most unsatisfactory finish. Dreamer is full-on POMO and playing in the shallow end of the pool. I think that in his situation, that is fine. More than fine. Waiting for a retest of the lows which may or may not come. Might be a little greedy in looking for that, but whatever works, and for now it is working.
Dreamer tossed ZM’s hat into the ring. I looked and said, “Nah”. Tried to find a rationale, and of course big drop and near 12-month low was it. But I was/am looking for something more than BTFD, no matter how large the dip. It was never suggested that this had a growth rationale, and of course it doesn’t have one. I tried to find an old 1yrPEG. By twisting just right, I could find a 2yrPEG of 400 versus a p/e of 26. Pretty tasty, but all smoke and mirrors as there is no sequential increase in p/e. So I passed.
Anyway, as I posted Monday, I continued to play the call/put game. ZS, DDOG, SQ. I even added a silly DDOG put on Thursday. Two days to go, a $2.15 premium for a $109 strike. Things were fairly strong that session, early. No company news going to come out on Friday. Seems kind of a fat premium, 2% for two days. Then The Chairman spoke and DDOG closed at $106.73 and $106.20 AH. $107. 85 is my breakeven so that’s underwater $165 for the put. I am not crying about that. DDOG is in my “hold” bucket, and I can hold through further weakness or write a call against them for $1.65+.
Made 2.3% for the week using 21% of the portfolio assets.
Now, to the POMO. The AFRM that was called away for $29 and rocketed up to $39…, it made re-entry and is $24.45 now. $27-$39-$24.50 in 4 weeks. Market has no legs. I think Dreamer is on the right side of this market. Who knows? But, in this example, I made money on the puts and calls, made over $2/share on the buy/sell, and can buy back 15% cheaper, should I choose to do so. I am somewhat inclined to buy. That’s down 22% on no company news. Just The Chairman’s warning of pain to the consumer. Is that pain as in crawl into a hole and shiver or is that pain as in a Millenia’s thinking, “Darn, don’t have the cash, maybe I can buy it at XYZ with their 4-payment plan”? There are many slices to the consumer profile. I have little kind to say about the fire hose spigot of stimulus nor the probably upcoming $300 billion loan bailout. But we all know that the largesse ended up in the pockets of Saulians and hedge fund mgrs., and now the Fed is set for the most vulnerable receiving peak pain. Well, that’s another subject, but I think it likely that there will still be consumers who will navigate the inflation/interest rate waters and buy what that need (read: want). So 3-day rule looks possible for AFRM. Others of the (very) general type such as SQ, down 7.7%, and even more generally GLBE, down 9% might be worth a 3-day look. Braze, down 6.5% --oops, late, up 5% AH—is consumer customer engagement so I guess consumers were thought to be an endangered species. @)#*_)!!! 6 tries to get species. When did species become singular, or did I miss class that day or is it true that the brain shrinks with age…? [xxx] Why is that!? Not fair. I am open to [xxxx] buying the dips on these, but not ZM. Why? I think because ZM had stock specific issues and these others are macro-spasms.
I think these macro spasms are an opportunity, but unsure of appropriate timing. Another week with no adult leadership over at Wall Street, then Daddy comes home on the 5th. Good luck, folks
End of original message
KC, chastized.
4 Likes
KC, chastized.
I can’t remember anything from your original note that was reportable…that’s nuts.
Maybe I hit up my bestie, Jen, the mighty and powerful TMFOverlord of the Great Board Purge (GBP) of 2022, and try to learn the horrible things you dared type here. Plus I am curious where this new board overhaul progress is at.
Of course, this could backfire in spectacular fashion, leading to your permanent expulsion and/or perhaps the permanent closure of this board. But I am willing to sacrifice our collective freedoms if I, in turn, set the truth free.
Dreamer
Hi y’all,
Yes, I still read this board and yes, I had to pull KC’s post…too much masked profanity, including one that results in an automatic pull. I left the repost up even though it still has something masked, but not something that is easily decipherable so I used some discretion there. Basically, no profanity, masked or otherwise, is the key.
Luckily, in the new board system, the letters used are already in the filter so it wouldn’t have allowed the post to happen in the first place.
As for the new boards, we are almost finished migrating the boards behind the paywall…two migrations left to go. Then we should get to the free side. They’ve been working on installing some plugins and theming and testing those out. If I had to guess, I would say before the end of September, but maybe into early October.
Jen
3 Likes
“…I had to pull KC’s post…too much masked profanity…”
Thanks Jen, this was really good, you made my day!
Gosh, Dreamer, rallying to the defense of the troops. But I am somewhat of a law-and-order guy, and rules is rules. Then, was just having some fun with the repost. At least Jen allowed the masked-masked profanity to pass the filter. A double derivative of profanity with respect to obscurity. Living on the edge of the wild side. 
Thanks to MF for providing space for these unofficial boards.
KC
3 Likes
Thanks for explanation TMF Overlo…I mean…Jen!
Looking forward to the new board format.
I swear I will avoid profanity at all costs.
Dreamer
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