FoolishJeff Mid-October Portfolio Update

2023 - up 22.2%
2022 - (-65%)
2021 – 21%
2020 - 140% (found Saul’s board in the summer of 2020)
2019 - 51%

Portfolio Breakdown

AXON - 14.3%
IOT - 13.8%
CELH - 11.2%
MNDY - 10.1%
CASH - 10.1%
TTD - 10.0%
TSLA - 6.3%
NVDA - 5.9%
GLBE - 5.1%
AEHR - 5.0%
ZSCALER - 4.9%
ELF - 3.3%

Watchlist - CRWD, MDB, SNOW

Summary: I haven’t posted my Portfolio for over a year, so I thought I’d get back into the habit. It is an invaluable exercise to hold myself accountable for my investment decisions.

AXON - 14.3% - the thesis here is that Axon’s high margin software subscription business is growing at a fast rate, coupled with a new Taser on the horizon, coupled with a reasonable P/S ratio around 11ish.

IOT - 13.8% - This stock is expensive, at a P/S ratio of 16 last time i checked, but it provides a hard ROI and seems perfectly positioned to take advantage of the cost-cutting times we are in due to high inflation & high interest rates along with increasing fuel costs due to the conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East. Remote monitoring of physical assets is a large and mostly untapped opportunity.

CELH - 11.2% - I love the fitness life-style niche in Energy drinks that Celsius has branded themselves. I also like their strategic partnerships, including strong influencer partnerships. With the smaller can and no added (real) sugar, it is gobbling up market share and profits. The Nielsen market survey as well as the recent teen survey points to good things to continue next quarter. According to the Piper Sandler teen survey “Monster (28%), Red Bull (23%) and Celsius (16%) are teens’ favorite energy drink brands; Celsius at 16% is well above its ~10% market share.” Revenue last quarter came in at 112% and analysts expect 88%, which I think they are likely to blow away. Long-term, the potential for international growth, which is only 5% of revenue, is what has investors really excited. If PepsiCo can do anything like what Coke did with Monster, this stock could continue to be a big winner.

MNDY - 10.1% - I’ve always had mixed feelings about this stock due to the vast amount of competition and limited scale of project management software, but the operating leverage Monday showed last quarter have me holding on to this one.

TTD - 10.0% - An oldy, but goody, the trade desk is taking market share in an ad recession and looks poised for an acceleration. A lot of the investment thesis centers around the ad market picking up at some point as well as the fact that we’re heading into an election year.

TSLA - 6.3% - Where else can you get a leader in EV’s, energy storage, and AI, all in the same place? Not to mention they look to be cracking FSD in the next 1-5 years. Elon can be unlikable at times but there’s no doubt he’s on the path to becoming the GOAT of innovation.

NVDA - 5.9% - The thesis here is that NVDA has a large software MOAT with CUDA and they are only just getting started on a trillion dollar build out of data centers.

  1. demand for GPUs for AI, and 2) a multiyear refresh of CPUs in data centers converting over to GPUs.

GLBE - 5.1% - They had a major slowdown last quarter but I’m holding on with hopes that the Shopify white label deal could be a catalyst for growth in the next few quarters.

AEHR - 5.0% - I cut my allocation from 13% to 5% after earnings. The CEO practically begging for orders in the conference call was not a good look. The uncertainty of hard orders, the customer concentration, the lack of a raise on FY guidance, the long sales cycles, and the tiny size of the business have me skittish but hopeful this company can execute.

ZSCALER - 4.9% - I’m worried about the amount of competition in the space but Zscaler provides some predictability with its solid billings numbers and revenue only slowed from 54% to 52% to 46% to 43% YoY for the last 4 quarters. I may add a little here.

ELF - 3.3% - I’m not an expert in the space but I had my wife try a few products, asked my stepson’s girlfriend and others and they seem to like it. It’s basically a knock off brand but the savings are huge, and the quality is good-enough. According to the recent Piper Sandler survey “e.l.f. remains the No. 1 cosmetics brand, increasing 13 points Y/Y to 29% for female teens.” I may bump this up to 5%.