Quill, thanks. I did go ahead with the XLE today. Added XRT to my watchlist for future. When you said above that “we don’t do end of day trading” do you mean that you never do? Or just in certain situations? Just curious.
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Arindam,
Is that the video you had attached to a thread here on the banking fiasco? I did watch that one all the way through. It was very good. I tried to look up that thread to see if it was that was the one you were referring to. It seems to be gone. Or I could simply be overlooking it. MarketBeat had an interesting article recently, “The Banking Crisis Isn’t Over”.
I do believe things are going to get much worse. I am very thankful to you and Quill and the others here who are helping me learn some new tricks to get through it when it gets ugly!
Here’s the link. She’s a sharp, smart, thoughtful analyst.
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re: EOD
Lisa,
I never do End of Day Trading. It is used mainly by Day Traders in lining up there ducks in hoping the stock will rise the following morning with out a game plan.
Question: what are your thoughts on LULU that currently does not pay any divvies from 3/16/23 and do you use any of their products.
Arindam, That was very insightful! Thank you!
Quill,
Thanks for the end of day info. I currently own LULU as it is one that I bought as a buy-n-hold. Now it is in my list of stocks to switch into swing trading mode. It has been on a nice run so I haven’t sold yet. I watch it for any significant downturn everyday. Then I plan to take the profit and get back in when the time is right. I don’t own any of their products currently, but probably more than half the women I know do own them! I don’t see the demand slowing anytime soon. Do you currently own this one?
I also think it’s impressive that it is so high above its 200ema. So many are below right now. I can’t remember which book I read that suggested never buying any stock that’s beneath its 200ema.
Just looked back at the 6 month on this. It could be hitting resistance right now around 389. Probably time to sell soon. Anyone that got in on 3/16 and still has it is happy.
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Quill,
That is sheer, Bernie Madoff-style nonsense. Do a bar by bar walk through. There were at least four losing trades.
Why you persist in making those sorts of claims of “no losses” is beyond me to understand when the opposite is so easy to prove.
‘Simon Sez’ (and its variants) is a trend-following method of making buy and sell decisions that has a track record of wins versus losses comparable to other trend-following systems when tested across statistically meaningful data sets.
By now, I probably have as much research time invested in 'Simon" and its variants as you. In its essence and essentials, it’s a good method for keeping oneself out of trouble. But there’s no magic to it, nor is it a path to fabulous wealth. It’s just a way of not doing anything too regrettably stupid.
Arindam
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re: FTNT : Swing Traders since September had 7 out 7 successful trades with Zero losses.
Young man I suggest you re-read Simon Sez III rules. You’re working with to much Information Overload with tons of theories.
Let’s review the rules.
" When a Price label appears to do the following:
1 ) For the TOP Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock to help protect your ASSets.
2 ) For the BOTTOM Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the Price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock. "
For a 9th grader, the instructions are very simple to Buy Out of the Gate and proceed to the Finishi line. The rules does not mention anything about the RED or GREEN bars but proceed to the Finish Line and SELL the stock. Any casual observer would ignore the red bars after the starting gate and keep going to the Finish Line.
Where do you see any concerns in the rules about the RED bars. When a horse jumps at the bell out of the starting gate, the horse does not count how many posts along the rail on his way to the Finish Line.
Now, lets review what a successful trade is for 9th graders and adult Swing Traders.
FTNT chart
9/2/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
9/13/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade rewarding the bettors a substantial amount of money. Do you agree or disagree.
then on 9/28/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 10/7/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade. Winna winna chicken dinner.
then on 10/14/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 11/02/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade.
then on 11/04/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 11/16/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade.
intermission bathroom break gotta go gotta go. then hit the refrig.
then on 12/08/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 12/14/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade.
Merry Christmas, got lots of toys for the Grand Kids.
Happy New Year to all
then on 1/17/23 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 2/16/23 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade. Man it paid big bux.
then on 3/14/23 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 4/17/23 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade. Man, the bettors were paid bigger bux.
then on 5/4/23 Bang - the horse is out of the gate. Still running around the first turn and heading for home and in the Trending zone
Now young man, do you see any losses. You are seeing RED and GREEN bars, what would you do if all the OHLC’s and Candle Stix were Black and White as shown below. I have been doing black and white plots on Graphic paper for over 40 years on just 6 stocks. When I was in the Navy conducting sea operations during the Vietnam War, I would go to the radio shak and have my friend contact Hong Kong via the Boston Teletype machine’s for OHLC every day. When in Japan, my friend contacted the Naval Air Station for OHLC’s for the day on 6 stocks. I then plotted them out. Notice NO RED or GREEN OHLC’s.
As they say " TRADE what you see, not what you think ."
If I were you, I’d go back and teach the KID how a 9 th grader makes money the olde fashion way. They earn it.
I’ll put it this way, if your KID Swing Traded just LULU like Lisa and I, we could have retired long time ago. And certainly not the way you like to lose money the olde fashion way or Swing Traded a six pack of Tetter Totters.
In my young days, I use to for every GREEN bar, I would buy 10 shares until the Finish Line. Had to stop, ran out of money.
Currently, I have two (2) new students who are in there 30’s, one by being laid off and the other worked in NYC and quit because of the mess going on in the Subways and the streets that is no longer safe.
LULU was there first stock to trade as well as the SPDR sectors and a 6 pack of Tetter Totters to go. Plus working on the Divvie portfolio.
Let’s review the charts
I wish you the best,
Quill -
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Quill,
Putting ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ arrows on a chart whose whole history is completely shown is an art exercise, not a back-test.
An acceptable back-test for a trading system might have this format. At each day, at the hard, right-hand edge of the chart, using a clearly defined rule set, state what the appropriate action for the next day would be. Then advance the chart to see if the rule set made a correct prediction. Note the result. Advance the chart one more bar and make the next prediction. Repeat the back-test a statistically significant number of times, and then tabulate the results. If the results show that the rule set, on average and across a wide range of tradables annd market conditions, offers a positive edge, then the system is tradable. Else, it isn’t. Thing are that simple.
Note: Using software, a back-test can be run on five years of data for 500 stocks in less than 3 minutes. When I code and test your rule sets, they preform exactly as trend-following systems could be expected to perform, namely, with a right/wrong ratio that tends be around 35%.
If the gullible and easily deceived want to believe your claims of obtaining better results than that, they are free to do so. I don’t.
Arindam
Arindam this doesn’t pass the smell test. You stated that ai could never take over trading because there are to many variables that only a good trader can do. Yet you use a program to run a back test that says any trader can only get a right/wrong ratio of around 35 percent and you tell Quill, who you admit is the best trader you have ever met, that he can only get 35 percent correct because a program, that is a lot less sophisticated than AI, told you that.
How do you reconcile these two varied viewpoints?
Andy
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Thanks Andy, its plain to see - the answer…doc
edit: regarding when to buy!
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Lisa
XLE moved up nicely the last few days…doc
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Change of subject, but how does this happen? The yellow circle. Do you guys think someone put in a stop loss at 382.67, someone else saw it and swooped in? I’m just curious because it is so out of line with the other action at that time.
Doc,
Yes, it has. Did you buy in Friday too? So far so good.
Lisa
On a regular chart you can see what is happening with LULU price vs the candlesticks that we watch. I love LULU slacks and the family loves the womens clothes - wish I would have bought it over a year ago:
You lose the perspective with that view you posted.
I am trading UCO which has been swinging up and down from the low 20’s to $30 range…doc
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Doc, Yes, thanks. I was actually only in that view momentarily to zoom in on that one transaction that seemed out of place. I do like how the format you posted above gives a good perspective for today’s action.
Lisa, that was just a standard line chart…doc
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look at this chart on LuLu. It’s a yearly and it looks like it topped and couldn’t break resistance at around $387.
Andy
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Yes it did. Same resistance point it hit back in December.
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You will notice the olde way I use to trade via the 15/30 ema for over 30 years. So far LULU still has a long way to go when the 15 crosses over the 50 heading south. At the cross over the traders would SELL the stock.
Also notice the price labels . So today there was a SELL signal. Kewl beans and will the have to wait for the next buy signal. You will also notice there are more price labels per this chart. Just a little bit more than we are currently using.
https://www.swingoptionstips.com/2023/05/swing-trade-idea-may-08-2023/
where it says Movers or S&P 500 is a shopping list of stocks that arrive at my email box every morning around 9:20am to 9:30am.
ZS is now on the list
= = = = = = = = = == =
Shopping lists: Where do you guys get your shopping lists from for further research.
= All US Exchanges Five Day Gainers - Barchart.com
Huma was at the top of the list for scouting for stock for my 2.5 percent theory.
I click on the 5D Avg Vol for the highest volume stocks from 9:45am to 10am.
then I click on the % change column looking for stocks that are greater than 2.5 percent and HUMA is now in the #2 slot.
I then click big plus + sign to the left of the ticker
I then click on the Quote and a little box pops up. If all of the % are above 2.5 percent. I place it the potential list. Then click on the big X.
I then start all over looking for at least a 6 pack of stocks.
= = = = = = =
I click on News at the top and look for Chart of the day even though barchart sends me an Email message for Chart of the Day. However they are days and even weeks behind the 8 ball. I then go to my Stockcharts and review how the stock is doing. If I have some down time, I look at the charts for possibles to Swing Trade them.
eg…EXP I don’t see any LOSING trades from September 2023 to May 2023. Some people don’t like to hear 7 out of 7 potential successful trades with ZERO LOSSES.
Very simple YOU BUY Out of the Gate per the rules. Ignore all the RED and GREEN bars until the FINISH LINE per the rules. PERIOD ! ! ! Basically your’re going from point A to Point B. When I look at a chart, I place the mouse on the bottom label and then smile when placing the mouse at the top label Ca-ching , Ca ching.
Stir - rise - and repeat. Scream if you see a possible loss.
You guys DO NOT want to make this to complicated. It is Booooooring . Boring meaning making money the old fashion way. We earn it.
Place the stock on your watchlist for review daily. Do not add and funny werds like resistance and support. " TRADE What you SEE Not what you think" . Nothing else. Read the quote over and over until it becomes second natue. Other wise Brain Farts will mess up you up.
If you guys use the Scanning tools as a subscriber, the following can help you alot. I have 155 out 200 tools. Just copy and paste.
// Bullish 13/50
[type = stock] and [country = US]
//and [SCTR > 90]
and [EMA(13,Daily Volume) > 500000]
and [today’s ema(13,close) > today’s ema(50,close) ]
and [yesterday’s ema(13,close) <= yesterday’s ema(50,close)]
and [close > 10] //10 means greater than $10.00
== = = = = = = = = = = = =
Some how Stock charts sends me a full list of candidates for out of the gate or close to it for Barchart. It arrives in my emall box around 9:25am.
//Bullish Scan 400 True Strength Index up and over
[type = stock] AND [country = US]
and [SCTR > 90]
AND [Daily EMA(20,Daily Volume) > 40000]
AND [Daily EMA(60,Daily Close) > 20]
AND [TSI(16,8,4) > 0]
AND [TSI(16,8,4) x TSI Signal(16,8,4)]
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
ZS was picked up 3 days ago.
We are going to have a mild recession and you guys should have a least a 6 pack of Tetter Totters on standby ready to go to help protect your ASSets.
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