Hot Takes! (this is the Hot Takes thread)

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
101

ROBLOX is the future! I remember being told that.
Anyways…they are down 22% at moment.

"San Mateo, Calif-based Roblox, which counts 9 to 12 year-olds as its largest demographic, expects second-quarter bookings to be between $870M and $900M, below the $902.5M estimate. Second-quarter revenue is forecast to be between $855M and $880M, above the $805.2M estimate.

It expects to lose between $265M and $267M on a net basis, better than the $345.5M that was expected."

Selling to 9-12 year olds and losing $250m-300m. Ok - sounds like a winner to diamond hands to death.

Moving on!
Remember the TTD tangential wannabe…the mighty Magnite! MGNI.
Up BIGLY 15% at moment. Why? Sales were up 14.7% y/y…amazing!

Wait. What? Stock up more than y/y rev gain? They are profitable! Wait…that is non-GAAP only.

Ok. Earnings season making total sense at moment.
Feels to me that these types of weird ER hits/pops aren’t that great of a sign.

But who knows,
Dreamer

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102

What could go wrong…seems like a great idea! (said no sci-fi fan, ever…)

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103

I am somewhere down the macro rabbit hole. It is strange to look at the IRA portfolios. The much reduced equity allocations inch upward in value as Mr. Market salivates over expected easings. Fed will (?) follow Swiss last month, ECB in June and drop a little stimulus. Nevermind inflation. The jobs reports will get ugly(ier). We are probably already in recession.

I am binge following this guy, among others:
https://www.google.com/search?q=eurodallar+university&rlz=1C1GCEB_enPH1036PH1036&oq=eurodallar+university&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCTYzMDlqMGoxNagCCLACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:cce90564,vid:wVdLhaZBxTA,st:0

KC

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104

What I meant was that the value of the IRA’s doesn’t change much–because such a small percentage is in equities. Still a lot of big moves in the equities, but number of shares are small. I am managing the FOMO. Partly because the bitcoin and silver ETF’s are also participating in the risk-on party.

kc

1 Like
105

The original SaaS king is down about 15% in AH….

Seeking Alpha might be a right-wing outfit though. Just assume that is the case w any negative news.

Dreamer

106

UIPath says hold my beer and down 30% with weak guide and c suite shuffle.

1 Like
107

At least somebody bucked the trend…

108

Maybe not so much.

And Kohls says “hey”.

Dreamer

109

case in point on the profit shell game being played.

ULTA up 9% in AH, after being near/at 52 wk low. (been up/down last couple years)

Why the big move? Here are the numbers:

Ulta Beauty (ULTA) reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $6.47, which topped expectations of $6.29. Net sales of $2.7 billion were about in line with expectations of $2.72 billion. Same-store sales rose 1.6% compared to the estimate of 1.43%.

However, Ulta cut its full-year fiscal 2025 forecasts.

It sees earnings per share in a range of $25.20 to $26.00, down from $26.20 to $27. Net sales are forecasted to be $11.5 billion to $11.6 billion. It had been $11.7 billion to $11.8 billion.

For comparable sales, the retailer sees +2% to +3%. Previously it had been +4% to +5%.

–

Deserves 10% pop? Feels like market just keeps suckering in retail investors just to fade them again later. Been a choppy trader’s market in most stocks, since late 2021.

Definitely (always are) exceptions, such as NVDA thanks to AI or ELF and CELH.
Most everything else seems to be doing a roller coaster. See; NET since 2020.

Dreamer

110

MDB down 23%
DELL (who fell for this one, honestly? You…in the back…“AI investor” I see you face flushed with shame) down 17%

VEEV, along with CRM one of those legacy SaaS outfits, down 13%.

S down
ZS up bigly…go figure.

my ol’ buddy ESTC Elastic back to July 2019 (remember that tech peak?) levels with a pop. How’d they do? Sales up 20% but playing the mongodb cloud shell game and the cloud rev up 30%+ and likely reason for pop. Still, great if you bought at covid bottom or Dec 2022 bottom (take your pick) but otherwise just trading sideways for years now. Stock dilution probably a reason for a lot of these tech stock darlings going nowhere. Stock price is same as 4-5 years ago, yet market caps are 2-3x. Market ain’t that dumb.

Dreamer

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111

and I was banned from Saul’s board for questioning valuations too much.
ok.

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112

IOT getting spanked at moment, while ODD getting a big pop from I think a buyback and restated guidance that wasn’t all that much higher.

ESPR up again. Will it hold? Meh. Q2 ER in August about 2 months away still. Hard to say.

Dreamer

1 Like
113

My most potential over the next year, not sure where you uncovered this one from but really doesn’t seem to be on anybody else’s radar

114

the GLP-1 weight loss hype is about as equal to the AI hype.

Users will lose muscle and essentially lose weight in an unhealthy manner.
Sure, better than being morbidly obese.

But I am focused more on those that feel 15-50 pounds overweight and probably just have bad diet and eating habits and likely a sedentary lifestyle.

I can only imagine the unholy pits of gastric discontent that many houses, apartments, townhomes, condos, and auto interiors will all be subjected to, when you combine GLP-1 side effects with a the wonderful world of sugar alcohols found in protein supplements.

I always remember episode of Johnny Carson. Dr asks Johnny why he eats…Johnny says something like “for sustenance”. Dr asks Ed McMahon why he eats…Ed says something like “for pleasure”.

I totally get Ed. My day revolves around what I am going to eat and when.
I can remember a traveling gig right out of college, and they gave me a credit card for a per diem of $35, which is a crazy amount in the 90s for a college grad who loved him some subway and taco bell. Every city I arrived at, I had to check which places took credit cards (not all did yet) and where my strategically-located pizza places, taco bells, subways, and other favorites were located.

Later on, in a new career where I had a longer commute two days a week, I would arrive in time for burger king breakfast and feast on the saus egg and cheese croissanwhich and a large tater tots. Tater tots…yummmmm.

In another state, I remember the spicy toppings that sonic put on their breakfast burritos and their cheese sticks weren’t bad. An occasional chili cheese dog as well.

Then there was the “buffet” period. Old Country Buffett and maybe the other was Golden Corral. Also asian buffet places. Oh good lord…so many choices to eat!

Point is…cravings for some people are worse than for others. I get it. I have had to work on my discipline and sometimes that means not having certain foods in my house to begin with to reduce the temptations. Mostly though, I have had to stop with gimmicky diets and simply not over-snack.

Weight still clocking around 187-188. Not sure how much of that is muscle fluctuating, as I have eased back the throttle slightly on how heavy the weights are when I workout, going for reps of 12-20 vs 8-10 more often than not. Being over 50, it has been gratifying to get back into decent shape as far as muscle goes, but unless I decide to go on TRT, there seems to be a real ceiling I am hitting as the ol’ body doesn’t grow or heal or bounce back as fast anymore. So I have had to set aside my ego. TRT might be in my future, but not this year.

So I say all that to mention I still am trying to keep roughly this amount of muscle but slim down to where I wake up every day around 170-172. Another 15 pounds. I am giving myself months, and maybe a year or more, to get there. A little at a time. Not going to let the diet get gimmicky (again). Because then the gains never last.

Just like I don’t believe any GLP-1 gains (or losses in their case) will hold. People might eat less but eat more unhealthy when they do. They may be less motivated to exercise now that the excess weight is coming off. And if they ever get off the drug, how quickly will it all boomerang right back if they haven’t ever truly changed their lifestyle habits or improved their discipline?

This whole methane-laced world is theirs, and we will all be stuck in it.
Until the craze fades.

Dreamer

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115

Today ESpR holding very well and not given back any gains … usually that bullish sign. May be tomorrow it can fly

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116

Once one is in the 50’s or older, ego can get in the way. What is important, IMO, is flexibility, agility, and adequate strength that can be maintained with body weight exercise. The objective is not so much longevity per se as it is longevity of quality of life.

I had planned today to be exercise day as I’ve been slacking. Your post was the final motivation. So, I did the “intensity” pushup routine ( a sort of oxymoron), planks, 2 minute dead hang, squats, and high intensity “run” up the driveway. Pushups today were sets of 7, 60 second rest between sets. Knew I was out of shape and did just 55. BMI is 20.5 which around here is considered skinny and impoverished. Need to do more plain walking and spend less time on line with macroeconomics, COVID, and politics. Speaking of which, core CPI up 0.2% for the month and 3.4% year ago. Ho-hum.

KC

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117

Hey KC,
You see this guy?
Motivation!

3 Likes
118

not sure when I will have time to write more, but this topic has been rattling around in my head for a while now.

Presidents, and even congresses, truly “inherit” circumstances.
It takes a while for new admin or congress policies to impact macro environment.

Analogy: I asked my Dr about going off statins and trying the Bempedoic Acid (Esperion drug). He said a better plan was to go off statins for two months, to see how I felt first. One month to get it out of my system, and another month to then see how I felt with it out of my system. Only then should I try the new drug and then have a fairer compare. This made sense. Despite me wanting to just make the switch immediately, there is a time component involved in seeing changes/results.

So back to economy:

GWB inherited the dotcom bust
Obama inherited the Great Recession
Biden inherited the stimulated economy due to free money bonanza and doubled-down.

I still maintain this house of cards about ready to collapse.
UE creeping up. Housing and autos unaffordable for most. College costs out of hand. Cumulative inflation of past 3 years on food a bad joke. etc etc

So the next POTUS, whether Biden or Trump or Biden’s replacement, likely inherits a mess.

Would you rather have a 1-term Trump inherit it, or a 1-term Biden inherit it?

Depends.
It always seems like the POTUS in power when a crisis hits gets blamed for it, rightly or wrongly. Obama managed to get reelected but I think part of that was similar to GWB and even Biden (if you consider covid crisis ongoing when he took office) in that the crisis event happened right at very beginning of their first terms.

So 3 years later, the dotcom boom was a distant memory plus wars kept GWB in power.
By 2011-2012, things may not have been awesome but were certainly well off the bottom for most people, and Obama stayed in power.

Trump runs for reelection in middle of poorly handled pandemic when whole country is miserable. Pretty sure he wins reelection if no covid…we might have had slight correction/recession from flying high 2017-2019, but likely the party would have kept going long enough for Trump to get reelected.

Biden not blamed for covid but his spending and policies led to inflation spiral, and he deserves all the blame for that. The stock market currently masks the pain most are feeling. If we get a repeat of 2022 lows, Dems have no chance.

So it feels bizarre…because I feel like you can make a case, good or bad, for Dems or GOP winning this election being a good thing or a bad thing.

If Dems win, I feel like you have 12-16 years of GOP coming up after the next four miserable years of economy tanking plus jihad-loving nonsense across campuses probably continuing unabated. This will end badly starting with 2026 midterms.

If GOP wins, even though it won’t be Trump’s “fault” he/GOP will get blame and you may usher in at least 8 years of whoever Dems trot out in 2028, if they are halfway competent.

It is almost like the election no one should want to win.
So, ironically, if you are the Dems, maybe you let Biden stay in (cause he sure doesn’t seem to want to leave the race) and get squashed, then you get great talking points over the next 4 years when Trump struggles with a bad economy/recession. At the very least, probably midterms go to the Dems…as midterms feel like they always counteract the party in power at the time. And Trump will champion no one but himself, so forget about him being able to groom a successor…he doesn’t care.

This is gonna be a weird 4.5 years, me thinks.

Dreamer

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119

December 2023:

Damn dude, I sure hope you at still not holding onto that short.

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120

I think another 15 years could go by, and Melania will still be the hottest first lady of all time…

JD Vance talking to Hulk Hogan…you know he is realizing his life has changed.

Dreamer

1 Like