Biden probably wont be nominee by next week.
If not, such a contrast against Trump who can talk off the cuff for 60-90 minutes.
Trump may be a bit older, but seems pretty much the same as 2017-2020 version.
I cant imagine Kamala doing much against Trump. Gotta think there is a Plan C for the Dems.
Dreamer
Aged well.
Although hardly prophetic as many figured this would happen.
What a crazy election cycle and we are only in July.
Think once everyone panics about how bad Kamala will be, that we wind up with Hillary making her last-chance runâŚa big known name to combat Trump? That would be pretty epic and prove we are all just living in a simulation.
Dreamer
a lot of stocks taking it on chin today. but most had huge runups, so really well up YTD still. So who is really beaten up?
Here are some names on my trackers that are within 10% of their 52 wk low.
ULTA stands out. Their revenues are 10x ELF but ELF is half the mkt cap. One of them is probably wrong.
Dreamer
PREDICTION:
NostraDreamer predicts that the Kamala-love will be short-lived and probably not last thru August, as these two things occur:
Her past weird word salad public speaking gigs resurface and she basically repeats the same behavior in upcoming speeches/rallies.
Most importantly - a Summer off has not appeared to dampen the pro-Hamas crowd. As colleges resume in the Fall, I expect a resurgence of news/protests and flag-burning. The average American canât stand this stuff, imo.
You canât see anything on CNN about this, of course. And I wonât post fox news link bc it gets labeled right-wing regardless of content. So leave it to Sky News:
I often wonder what Hollywood Jewish community thinks of all this. A largely historically pro-Dem group, when will they think enough is enough?
How is burning American flags and siding with the Death to America crowd an ok thing?
I reiterate that whoever does win the POTUS will inherit a bad economy and ultimately take blame. So if Harris surprisingly wins, it probably spells 10-12 years of GOP rule starting in 2026 mid-terms. If Trump wins, some common sense may come back as fingers are put in the holes of the dam, but think it is all unwound in 2029 with exec orders by a Dem POTUS.
Gonna be chaotic year.
Dreamer
for no rhyme or reason, a couple stocks that start with letter âEâ are up on the big down day todayâŚ
The mag7 are all dragging index down, but some other notable losers include this eclectic bunch:
Dreamer
Oh.
Now they write an articleâŚ
Dreamer
Assuming that the graph is accurate and you expect some rebalancing, what names would you like in âFinancials / Energy / Materialsâ?
Dreamer
I continue to like Nelnet $NNI and Consol Energy $CEIX
Thoughts. I eyeball 6 to 8 year cycle here, so I think no hurry. Wait until well into the recession. It is not so much a bottom being formed in these sectors, it is the bubbles bursting: dot.com, housing and subprime, and⌠can we call it a double âsubscription and AIâ bubble? Pop!, and the money flows to the 24% sectors.
So, look at Financials/Energy/Materials from a macro standpoint. Energy and Materials are capital intensive. Materials are energy and capital intensive. Financials are yield curve and interest rate and liquidity sensitive.
Materials volume growth is challenged from regulatory standpoint, too. Mining side of materials doesnât smell really fresh to me. Maybe some pricing power for materials processing coming out of recession with capacity restraints in place.
Financials, those that survive and thrive by picking up pieces of other financials in the ruins of commercial real estate, would do well with higher long term interest rates combined with normal to lower short term rates. Citi, J P Morgan, maybe Asian banks⌠HSB, or some Singaporean bank? Indian?
Just musings. I think long term rates have to go up in order sell the issuance that has to come out of the fiscal side.
Any thoughts,??
KC
market seems drunkâŚbig pops and big drops. kind of chaotic out there.
APPS, TTD, HIMS, RDDT
FeelsâŚvolatile.
Maybe the market correction has been postponed indefinitely? (probably jinxed it right there)
Dreamer
I was thinking the same thing - though the word of the day for me is manic. Iâm shifting some of my portfolio to a more value oriented set of equities that I wouldnât have considered in the past. BEP, BN, etc.
just noticed;
TTD at $55. Wowza! I sold it over 5 years ago now, jan or so pre-covid in 2020, at pre-split $275 (so $27.50 now). Effectively I missed out on a double since then, or 14% CAGR over last 5 years. Had I been in a coma the past 5 years and held on to TTD along the way, it wouldnât have been the worst thing, but it felt overvalued at the time and so I bailed. I havenât paid close enough attention to say if it is undervalued or not now, though.
ESTC around $90, which is where it was in Summer 2019, soâŚyeah.
SPG at $165, essentially where I sold it when I owned a lot of it, in late 2021 after about an 18-month hold from $60 cost basis. It does pay dividends though, so I did miss out on passive income along the way.
NVDA. Oh boy. How a stock can be a big winner from my past and simultaneously be âthe one that got awayâ is interesting!
So is LTBH truly dead? I think for most stocks, yes, especially given how richly-valued many are now in the modern info age of IPOs and online trading (so you canât get in on the ground floor) and very few stocks become META, or NVDA, or TSLA. For every 1 of those success stories you have whatâŚ1000âs that donât work out?
Great Uncle Warren likes value for a reason, it seems.
Dreamer
InterestingâŚ
Bezos could leap into the social media stratosphere in one swoopâŚ
Time to MAHA on the WAFTT board!!
first - i call BS on the form on some of these pullups/chinups and pushups.
Should form matter? Yes, both for building muscle and endurance the right way, and for reducing injury.
with my whiny caveat out of the way, I did it in 9:47, which was fairly disappointing.
the chinup âbarâ in my basement is short and so my form at the gym is different, as are the slightly angled grips at the gym. Probably why i underperformed on the chinups.
100 pushups is fairly easy for meâŚdid in 2 sets, probably in about 2.5 min total.
That means I spent 7.5 min on 50 chinups. (palms up). I prefer that to pullups because of my sometimes cranky shoulders.
Chinups I already do every 4th day at the gym. Normally i do 3 sets, roughly 13, then 9, then 8, for 30 total. Given i never do more than that, tonight my endurance fell off a cliff. Tonight i did: 12, 8, 8, 6 and i am at 34 and just dragging. I did 4-5 and then just 2-3 and singles until i got to 50.
Blah. Looks like i have to push myself a bit harder at gym on chinups. I will try for 14, 10, 8. And slowly just add 1-2 more reps in one of those sets in coming months.
should be able to get to 15, 12, 10. Or 37 total. Then next time i take challenge i can hopefully do 7 and then 6 and be done. That should speed up my time a bit.
Anyone else try it? Also, I am 52, so RFK doing it under 6 min at 70 yrs old?
TRT must be a helluva drugâŚ
Dreamer
interesting thread on AI impact to software on Saul board, here:
Reading it, I find it jives with the thought I have had of âAI is just another Enterprise Applicationâ.
Another thought is regarding price. Idea being that AI accelerates the outcomes, or the creation of the software (if that was the outcome) and may, eventually, become deflationary.
Strikes me that perhaps it is like modern televisionsâŚbigger and bigger and cheaper and cheaper. Obviously there are ad-related reasons to this, tied to streaming partnerships, built-in ad opptys, etcâŚ
But in general, the tech has gotten easier to produce, it seems.
I think you need human validation or specialized software solutions that validate the AI software for bugs (think; yet another needed âsecurityâ overlay in your enterprise) before you rely too heavily on an AI-heavy software solution.
So you lower costs on the bulk of the product, but maybe you offset that with additional âAI protectionsâ you now have to put in place, but it still winds up being a net savings.
Always in motion, the future is.
Yodreamer
