Investing in Renewables

Despite the large number of skeptics and hurdles I’m convinced that the paradigm shift from fossil fuels to renewables is inevitable. It will happen over a period of decades and energy being the most important resource for all life forms this paradigm shift is fertile ground for growth investing. I’m already long Tesla (TSLA) and Enphase (ENPH) and I have been looking at EV chargers.

I lost some money on Volta Inc. (VLTA) and gave up because their advertising based business model does not seem reliable. ChargePoint America (CHPT) has a very poor reputation. Today I found a Seeking Alpha article about Blink Charging Co. (BLNK) that looks quite promising. While not yet profitable Gross Margin is growing faster than Revenue and both are growing much faster than Operating Expenses. Tesla is the only real competitor that I know of.

There is a lot of talk about recession, inflation, and the stock market crashing. The stock price charts I’m looking at tell a different story. Most of the bubble gains have been squeezed out already. Most show the bottom around May or July. ARKK which I started buying too early (April) is already in the black with the help of covered calls while RIVN which I started buying in June is up 28%. I’m thinking of adding BLNK to the income part of the portfolio.

Blink Charging: Large Short Position, Insiders Aren’t Budging

• Today, we take our first look at the electric vehicle charging station concern Blink Charging Co.

• The company is posting impressive organic revenue growth and has made some recent strategic acquisitions.

• However, the stock has a high short interest even as insiders are holding tight to their shares. Who is right?

• An investment analysis follows in the paragraphs below.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539822-blink-charging-larg…

The Captain

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TLSA, ENPH, BLNK are all good calls. Friend is looking into getting RIVN as well. Oddly enough, Farmland Partners (FPI) is also involved in wind and solar power generation in addition to farming. Two birds, one stone? Take a look at the ICLN exchange traded fund as well, if for ideas only based on their holdings.

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I lost some money on Volta Inc. (VLTA) and gave up because their advertising based business model does not seem reliable. ChargePoint America (CHPT) has a very poor reputation. Today I found a Seeking Alpha article about Blink Charging Co. (BLNK) that looks quite promising. While not yet profitable Gross Margin is growing faster than Revenue and both are growing much faster than Operating Expenses. Tesla is the only real competitor that I know of.

Charging seems like a low margin business with low barriers to entry. Personally, I’d put it in the too hard pile and move onto something else.

5 Likes

Charging seems like a low margin business with low barriers to entry. Personally, I’d put it in the too hard pile and move onto something else.

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I agree. I put my money on ALB weeks ago. Albemarle Corporation (ALB) is a specialty chemicals manufacturing company based in Charlotte, North Carolina. It operates 3 divisions: lithium (41.0% of 2021 revenues), bromine specialties (33.9% of 2021 revenues) and catalysts (22.9% of 2021 revenues).

As of 2020, Albemarle was the largest provider of lithium for electric vehicle batteries. Albemarle, Sociedad Química y Minera, and FMC Corporation collectively produce just over half of the world’s lithium and lithium storage products, while just under half is produced by China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albemarle_Corporation

Jaak

ALB up 4.4% today.

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Here are two recent write-ups on lithium (on the New Paradigm Investing discussion board).

https://discussion.fool.com/lithium-35153655.aspx
https://discussion.fool.com/lithium-2-salton-sea-and-more-351542…

FMC owned Lithium Corporation of America but spun it off a few years ago as Livent. They are now a big ag pesticides player having bought Duponts ag business which they sold to allow merger with Dow.

Lots going on at the Salton Sea and in Australia.

Albemarle has just announced their catalyst business is being renamed. May be readying for a sale or spin off. I think they make catalysts for products like polyethylene and polypropylene.

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Oddly enough, Farmland Partners (FPI) is also involved in wind and solar power generation in addition to farming. Two birds, one stone? Take a look at the ICLN exchange traded fund as well, if for ideas only based on their holdings.

Thanks for the feedback!

The Captain

2 Likes

Charging seems like a low margin business with low barriers to entry. Personally, I’d put it in the too hard pile and move onto something else.

There is a lot of truth in what you say. One thing I like about retail is that customers don’t have pricing power. In EVs, Hertz didn’t have pricing power over Tesla with the 100K purchase. The trick is to find the retail business that has the superior business model, the one that creates a story that people love. Also often the business that caters to lower income markets are safer that the ones that cater to the rich.

Blink Charging seems to have some of the above as evidenced by their fast revenue growth. BTW, they are also buying out smaller initiatives which can also be a good business model. In any case, I would approach BLNK with caution. Unlike the Three Musketeers, not One for All! :wink:

The Captain

I had a supermarket chain for a customer in my management consulting days, a low margin business if ever there was one, yet they were making over 30% returns on investment. How could that be? The secret was in the purchasing. The purchasing manager, a Jewish Catalonian – two peoples reputed for their ‘thriftiness’ – told me the secret, “I have to sell the merchandise three times before I pay for it.” If they got 30 days the stuff had to be off the shelves in 10 days or less. This is a winning business model. Ross Stores has an equivalent business model, they buy end of season overstock merchandise which they warehouse until the season returns. Two opposite ways to use time!

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The secret was in the purchasing. Two opposite ways to use time!


For over thirty years, my IT business ran under false (or at least hidden) colors. My first business was an electrical contracting firm where I instituted strict edicts to always pay our vendors (and of course payroll) on time which created a cash flow issue because our usual customer base (general contractors) regularly paid slowly (sometimes, if at all). I compensated for this by, rather than taking the easiest route and consolidating all my orders with a single distributor, holding daily competitions on a line item basis to squeeze the last bit of juice out of every procurement.

When I started my IT hardware business, in 1980, since I was conserving cash, I chose a mail-order model. My advertising was the big expense (I took out full page adds in Byte Magazine, a nationally distributed microcomputer oriented magazine of the time, and later in the NYT’s technology section). OTOH, my sales model was; the customer sends me a check (pre-credit card days), and once it cleared my bank, I would have their purchase drop-shipped from the nearest/cheapest distributor/manufacture to their location (along with my paperwork, rather than the vendors). I would then pay the vendor in 30 days. My “inventory” was an ever-growing bank account of other people’s money.

This methodology meant that my ultimate profit was based on finding the best net delivered price in the nation, based on final destination as well as gaining an understanding of the various “channels” that manufacturers sold their products through at vastly different prices. I didn’t care if they considered be a distributor, OEM, reseller, retailer, dealer, VAR, installer or whatever, as long as I got the cheapest price (occasionally leaving the authorized channel structure completely by buying from OEM’s at their cost to boost their numbers in their own pricing matrix).

The massive buildup of cash allowed a few additional strategies to play out. I ALWAYS continued to pay my bills on time - which created a situation where my firms had essentially unlimited credit with hundreds of firms. It also allowed me to offer to pay in advance or in ten/fifteen however many days to get an additional discount in price (a 2% discount on two week’s worth of giving up the use of the money was a pretty good return for me).

My creditworthiness was relatively unique among brick and mortar resellers in the early days and it allowed me to compete for government business (who wouldn’t pay the C.O.D. required by those who had their money tied up in inventory which quickly became obsolete). We became successful enough that when networking was “invented” I was able to withdraw the contracting business from the slow paying commercial sales and use it as the infrastructure arm of the faster paying government business.

The government business ballooned and we pulled the plug on the mail order sales (and the expensive advertising, which additionally, tended, because of its showing discounted prices tended to tick off manufacturers). Our experience in national procurement, augmented by a database program I wrote to choose the least expensive source for each line item we were purchasing. While our sales prices were cast in stone based on competitive bids, we could make a significant bump on our profits by imaginative and aggressive procurement - with the knowledge that everyone wanted to do business with us because they knew they would be paid on-time.

For years, we were able to run at double digit net profit in a field notorious for gross profits to be in the lower half of single digits. The secret sauce was in both using every available edge in procurement by holding what amounted to daily auctions between distributors/manufacturers as the stick and the promise of as quick a payment as they were willing to pay for as the carrot.

Jeff

5 Likes

Blink Charging seems to have some of the above as evidenced by their fast revenue growth. BTW, they are also buying out smaller initiatives which can also be a good business model.

Blink has about a $1B market cap with only $11M in revenue, Yikes. Also shows growing debt and, most importantly, negative operating free cash flow (FCF). Tough to sustain growth when your daily operations is burning money. Meanwhile car companies like Ford, GM, Tesla, and VW are building up their own charging networks. That’s pretty strong competition from deep pocket companies who have their own customers to draw on.

The FCF chart is pretty ugly: https://ycharts.com/companies/BLNK/free_cash_flow

I dunno. Blink is a pretty tough sell…

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Blink has about a $1B market cap with only $11M in revenue, Yikes. Also shows growing debt and, most importantly, negative operating free cash flow (FCF). Tough to sustain growth when your daily operations is burning money. Meanwhile car companies like Ford, GM, Tesla, and VW are building up their own charging networks. That’s pretty strong competition from deep pocket companies who have their own customers to draw on.

The FCF chart is pretty ugly: https://ycharts.com/companies/BLNK/free_cash_flow

I dunno. Blink is a pretty tough sell…

That’s one way of looking at it but you failed to say where the money went. Blink has been on an acquisition binge

https://www.crunchbase.com/search/acquisitions/field/organiz…

Blink Charging Announces the Transformative Acquisition of EV Charging Leader SemaConnect, Further Expanding Its Network and Capabilities

https://blinkcharging.com/news/blink-charging-acquires-semac…

The scenario I see is raising additional capital.

Meanwhile car companies like Ford, GM, Tesla, and VW are building up their own charging networks.

Tesla is a real competitor, VW is Electrify America, the punishment for Diesel gate and the references are pretty ugly…

Everything You Need to Know about the VW Diesel-Emissions Scandal

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a15339250/everything-you-n…

Ford and GM, if they don’t do it in-house they just might hire Blink to do it for them.

GM selects Blink Charging to charge cars at its dealerships

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBjHpufBHwI

Tesla is vertically integrated but the incumbents rely heavily on value chains, on suppliers. With the huge debt loads they already have I don’t see how they can get into the charging business on their own.

The Captain

Ford and GM, if they don’t do it in-house they just might hire Blink to do it for them.

Perhaps, although it looks like both GM and Ford are linking agreements with other companies like EVGO.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/23/gm-is-latest-to-join-the-r…
https://www.ford.com/support/how-tos/fordpass/blueoval-charg…

I think if I were to take a flier on a charging company I would go with Beam Global (BEEM). Their financials are also risky but they have an interesting patented product that allows off-grid solar recharging. As such they are I believe the only charging company that guarantees using renewable energy. They also seem to like vertical integration as they just bought their battery supplier, which seems like a good move.

https://beamforall.com/product/ev-arc-2020/

An off-grid solar power charging station is something one can put in all sorts of out of the way places (national parks and rural areas, not to mention a whole lot of third world countries) so it seems to have a readily available niche.

Its a medium sized company with a $150M market cap and seems to have some decent deals with the Marine Corp and the state of California. In fact, it seems to have a lot of government and institutional customers for a company its size. https://beamforall.com/beam-customers/

I like the product as it stands out from its competitors, though I don’t know much about how well the product works. The notion of a charging station that doesn’t require any infrastructure or onsite construction is appealing.

It is my understanding that Enphase has a similar product,as small as 1 solar panel and battery system,for remote pumping of water in third world countries and such.

Jk

Long shot since 2015

The Captain talks about Ross Stores’ retailing magic…

The secret was in the purchasing. The purchasing manager, a Jewish Catalonian – two peoples reputed for their ‘thriftiness’ – told me the secret, “I have to sell the merchandise three times before I pay for it.” If they got 30 days the stuff had to be off the shelves in 10 days or less. This is a winning business model. Ross Stores has an equivalent business model, they buy end of season overstock merchandise which they warehouse until the season returns.

I had the good fortune (?) to work as an IT exec for TJX HQ in the Boston area and had the opportunity to go on a thee-day buying trip with one of the most experienced merchandisers that they had. It was a life-changing trip to learn and watch how these buyers form relationships with merchandisers in the NYC area and how back room “overstock” merchandise gets bought with “pennies on a dollar” cost.

https://investor.tjx.com/investors

The TJX Companies, Inc. is the leading off-price apparel and home fashions retailer in the U.S. and worldwide. Our mission is to deliver great value to our customers every day. We believe that we operate one of the most flexible business models in the world and that we have one of the widest demographic reaches in retail. Over our more than four decades as a Company, we have generally delivered steady sales and earnings growth through many retail and economic environments across different geographies.

We are one of the few large U.S. brick-and-mortar retailers of apparel and home fashions to have expanded successfully internationally. We operate stores in nine countries across three continents, and we continue to believe we have significant store growth opportunities, both in the U.S. and internationally, in the long term. Over the course of our history, our strong financial returns and cash generation have allowed us to simultaneously invest in the growth of the business and return cash to shareholders for decades. To learn more about the reasons for our confidence, we invite you to read our Key Success Factors.

https://investor.tjx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/…

TJX - a $44Billion dollar retailer selling merchandise in the US, Canada, Europe and Australia.

I had a boatload of shares in the past, don’t own shares of TJX any longer.
'38Packard

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I had the good fortune (?) to work as an IT exec for TJX HQ in the Boston area and had the opportunity to go on a thee-day buying trip with one of the most experienced merchandisers that they had. It was a life-changing trip to learn and watch how these buyers form relationships with merchandisers in the NYC area and how back room “overstock” merchandise gets bought with “pennies on a dollar” cost.

Going on field trips with people who know their business is both humbling and life-changing. Some people listen only to the boss, we listened to the boss only to find out where he wanted to go. We listened the rank and file to find out how the business actually worked.

I held ROST from September 2015 to December 2017 and made good money but grew tired of retail because growth was coming to a end, you can only open so many stores. The grass was greener on the other side of the fence.

TJX is a great discount retailer but I shopped at ‘Dress for Less’ Ross Stores and liked what I saw.

https://www.rossstores.com

The Captain
my cousins shopped at Brooks Brothers

https://www.brooksbrothers.eu/pt/en/

Same Button-Down Oxford shirts at half the price