The market decline is very quick and QQQ is already below 200 day moving average and SPY is barely above 200 day, and Russell 200 is well below 200 day.
Nothing good happens below 200. It is clear the administration is going to continue its policies, and create lots of volatility and uncertainty as byproduct.
Even if today becomes a short-term bottom, and we bounce off of it, I am planning to use every rally to sell, and raise cash. I might miss, but I need to product the gains. It is a shame, that I have let this drawdown eat the gains YTD.
Experienced investors know how to deal with these situations. Time to take some profits, trim some speculative investments and maybe hold cash. Mostly its hang on and wait for better times.
$FXI hit my first and second targets. I have sold most of the stocks around $36 and left with few covered calls for March $37 which I might extend depending on the premium and bunch of Jan 26 25 calls, which I will ride. If it decisively breaks above $37, I might initiate new calls.
Similarly Most of my $BABA are closed around $125. But still have some covered calls, few shares, and the puts $70, $80 puts I have sold.
On individual names, trying to understand Chinese names takes a lot of effort. I don’t invest purely based on technicals. Hence, $FXI, $KWEB.
It may seem like selling the winners, but I had higher allocation and had to bring down the allocation. Separately, wherever I can, I am raising cash. I suspect we will get opportunities on SW, tech names in US. Just need to be ready.
The names you have shown all have similar chart pattern to FXI. The stocks are breaking out of the big base. You need new set of investors to get in and establish long term positions and weak hands (like me) to get out. I think China will have next few years of run, of course usual caveats apply. After this run, we may get a digestion and sideways phase. At least I am hoping for it.
That is the way I see it too, not much in the U.S except for gold. The Tech stocks need a good basing because they have been shellacked and with all the Lay offs it’s hard to tell how their Revenue’s are going to be. Watching PLTR but it might have further to fall. App has been decimated. Everything in the U.S is going to take awhile to settle down. At least that is the way I see it but going through everything on the weekends to make sure I stay up to date.
I have closed all the $PLTR calls I have sold and have some puts sold for $20. I will wait.
Look at names like $MDB, $SNOW, etc. Specifically $MDB had a brutal selloff for what looked like a mild disappointment in guidance, frankly it seemed like they are hedging or sandbagging. But market will shoot first and ask questions.
Most of our gold holdings are physical!! It is all long-term going back to 90’s. Closed all $GLD position by end of 2024. Owning a bunch of $SLV, mostly trading spreads. I like $SLV better than $GLD. But the geopolitics and central banks may be a bigger tailwind for $GLD.
