Macroeconomic Risk of Revolution

I noticed that the Federal Judge who signed a search warrant that’s been in the news of late is getting death threats. Home address along with pictures of the judge’s spouse and kids are being circulated on the “dark web”.

How are you factoring the “risk of revolution” into your investment decisions over the next year or two?

intercst

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I noticed that the Federal Judge who signed a search warrant that’s been in the news of late is getting death threats. Home address along with pictures of the judge’s spouse and kids are being circulated on the “dark web”.

How are you factoring the “risk of revolution” into your investment decisions over the next year or two?

Chilling thought! And a real risk to consider. Nations don’t last forever.

I’ve not given it a moment’s thought in my investment decisions so far. What would be some sensible measures? Mountain acreage with a cabin designed for self sufficiency, to get away from the fighting? Establish a second ‘home’ country that you are familiar with, have a visa for, and accounts funded there? Accounts in a different country/currency?

Establish a second ‘home’ country that you are familiar with, have a visa for, and accounts funded there? Accounts in a different country/currency?

I got an Irish passport that allows me to reside in any EU country about 15 years ago.

intercst

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how long will the revolution last when people exercise their 2nd amendment

rights and start shooting back?

How are you factoring the “risk of revolution” into your investment decisions over the next year or two?

Frankly, it’s not a risk worth worrying about. Certainly not in terms of one rather vocal and pugnaciously ill-informed bunch of folk. They may strut about talking of certain rights, but when push comes to shove, the real military is much better equipped and will dispatch them in pretty short order. Any affect on investments would be short-lived blips in a chart.

If you’re concerned about revolution affecting your investments, the revolution would be one coming from the other direction and aimed at making business somewhat less profitable through taxation and regulation. That’s the one that can affect the value of businesses over a longer term. Businesses would still be profitable, just somewhat less so.

–Peter

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since the 1970’s, my investment philosophy has included foreign investments which are held in terms of foreign currencies (currently mostly Swiss and Australian, but somewhat less of a couple of others). Foreign passports are a strategy I sometimes move forward from a back burner.

I have grave concerns that some politicians are beginning to believe their own rhetoric.

Jeff

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how long will the revolution last when people exercise their 2nd amendment

rights and start shooting back?

What if it is the folks that are clutching their bibles & guns are the ones revolting?

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but when push comes to shove, the real military is much better equipped and will dispatch them in pretty short order.

Certainly no revolutionaries could stand & fight toe to toe with the US military. Islamic rebels in Afghanistan fighting a guerilla war were never defeated though.

I wonder how the American public would respond to the use of drones against any such US rebels & the resulting deaths of innocents?
Well likely we would never learn about such occurrences. Any squealers would have the example of Daniel Hale as an object lesson.
Hale, a 34-year-old former Air Force signals intelligence analyst, is serving a 45-month prison sentence, following his conviction under the Espionage Act for disclosing classified documents about the U.S. military’s drone assassination program and its high civilian death toll.https://consortiumnews.com/2022/08/03/chris-hedges-when-the-…

Or Julian Assange, whom came to the attention of the US government once he released a video of 2 US gunships massacring Iraqi Reuters reporters & Afghanistan War document release:“The leak, which is considered to be one of the largest in U.S. military history,[6][13] revealed information on the deaths of civilians, increased Taliban attacks, and involvement by Pakistan and Iran in the insurgency.
The New York Times described the leak as “a six-year archive of classified military documents [that] offers an unvarnished and grim picture of the Afghan war”. The Guardian called the material “one of the biggest leaks in U.S. military history … a devastating portrait of the failing war in Afghanistan, revealing how coalition forces have killed hundreds of civilians in unreported incidents, Taliban attacks have soared and NATO commanders fear neighbouring Pakistan and Iran are fuelling the insurgency”.

Our nation’s military wishes all reports of collateral murder to remain classified.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-usa-journalists-idUS…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_documents_leak…

The vast rise of rent increases within our nation will drive more people into homelessness and despair. Double digit rent increases is not uncommon in the nation. A friend of mine just receive notice of a 25% rent increase.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/tennants-unions-demand-biden-…

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There will be no revolution.

Also there will be no going back to the 2016 results. We will stomp it out in the voting booth. We will stomp it out legally. We will stomp it out in open honest discussions…but not here. s

The real reason we wont go back is the country and the vast majority of Americans will always do better with demand side economics. Those who do not understand that, YET, have not faced all the lying it took to create supply side economics. Slow GDP growth is not our goal any longer.

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What would be some sensible measures? Mountain acreage with a cabin designed for self sufficiency, to get away from the fighting? Establish a second ‘home’ country that you are familiar with, have a visa for, and accounts funded there? Accounts in a different country/currency?

Got both of those covered. Guess I’ll quit worrying. Well the mountain home is not yet complete but will be by fall.

more important by far than a mere structure in a place that seems far from what you fear, what you most need to survive hard times is a functioning decent community of people who are capable of sticking together and following the traditions of basic decency.

You want to survive earthquakes fires floods hoodlums wars droughts and zombies? Then find a place where neighborhoods still exist and people value community; then buy in and move in, and be a good neighbor.

david fb

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In case you missed it, a man attacked an FBI field office today. Car chase and shootout ensued. Perp was killed.

Around 9 a.m., a man wearing body armor attempted to breach FBI Cincinnati’s visitor screening facility. After an alarm and response by special agents, the man fled north on Interstate 71.

Troopers said the suspect raised a firearm toward police, and shots were fired back by officers at the scene. The suspect was pronounced deceased at the scene around 3:40 p.m.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/71-closed-clinton-count…

The evening news also reported that the on-line chatter advocating violence is as loud as it was in the runup to January 6th.

The “JCs” don’t seem the least bit concerned.

Steve

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What would be some sensible measures? Mountain acreage with a cabin designed for self sufficiency, to get away from the fighting? Establish a second ‘home’ country that you are familiar with, have a visa for, and accounts funded there? Accounts in a different country/currency?

Have the first, working on identifying the second, at which point we will put money there.

Can’t say we bought our rural property as a prepper haven…it’s simply a glorious vacation home…but the water source with fish, room to grow food, hundreds of thousands of acres of National Forest across the street were noted as good to have in the pocket when we bought. Happily the neighbor with the AK-47, (and many, many other guns,) is protective of us, and we won’t irritate him! Sadly, he and his son would probably be in that revolution, as would much of the area, so not sure a cabin in the boonies is the best alternative.

IP

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About the same way I am figuring in nuclear secrets finding their way from Florida to some unfriendly country.

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Can’t say we bought our rural property as a prepper haven…it’s simply a glorious vacation home…but the water source with fish, room to grow food, hundreds of thousands of acres of National Forest across the street were noted as good to have in the pocket when we bought. Happily the neighbor with the AK-47, (and many, many other guns,) is protective of us, and we won’t irritate him! Sadly, he and his son would probably be in that revolution, as would much of the area, so not sure a cabin in the boonies is the best alternative.

Sounds great, IP. I’ve been casually shopping for something similar for the last few years. I guess as long as the neighbors are friendly, and the battle isn’t coming to the neighborhood, your boonies would be a fine place to ride out the fighting from a physical safety perspective.

One aspect of rural living in the south that I’ve had to start discussing with my real estate clients is the possibility ending up near a gun nut who treats their property like a firing range. It can totally ruin the peace and quiet of a property and not a thing you can do about it in many jurisdictions.

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One aspect of rural living in the south that I’ve had to start discussing with my real estate clients is the possibility ending up near a gun nut who treats their property like a firing range.

When I first retired, I was looking at some lake property in west Michigan. The lot I preferred, only about a 8 foot elevation above the lake, with natural gas service, was also a stone’s throw from a gun range. I spoke with the head of the local homeowner’s association. They had been trying to get rid of the gun range for years, but the gun nutters refused, and, as the range predated construction of the dam that formed the lake, the gun nutters won. There was someone using the range the day I was looking at the lot. The gunshots were plenty loud.

I doubt a secluded cabin would be any protection. Repressive police states have a way of finding non-conforming people. They could infer, for instance, that anyone who lived in a secluded place had something to hide, and investigate them. When I was in elementary school, we were told a variety of horror stories about “life under Communism”, one of which was about how there were spies everywhere, looking for anyone expressing non-conforming thought.

Best bet would be to hide in plain sight. Wave your Bible from the Baptist lodge, have multiple generations of certified birth certificates to prove you aren’t an “anchor baby”, and spout the company line 24/7. It might not be a bad idea to have a DNA test to prove you are of suitable stock. Michigan doesn’t register voters by party affiliation, but, when I volunteered to work at a polling place a few years ago, I did need to declare an affiliation…oops.

Well, if they deport me, it would need to be to Canada, or, if the DNA test confirmed my grandfather’s Saxon roots, maybe Germany. I’m getting too old and creaky to be put in a forced labor camp.

Steve…might stop at the township clerk’s office to see if they retained the records of when I worked at a polling place

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One aspect of rural living in the south that I’ve had to start discussing with my real estate clients is the possibility ending up near a gun nut who treats their property like a firing range. It can totally ruin the peace and quiet of a property and not a thing you can do about it in many jurisdictions.

Sounds like my neighbor. To his credit, however, he knows how much I hate the noise and is considerate to keep it to a minimum when we are here, as well as sheepishly letting us know in advance that he’s going to do target practice. We thank him for his consideration and keep our mouth shut about the noise. You never know when you will need his services to put down a rabid critter or take out a copperhead that refuses to go away. So accurate an aim that he was able to shoot out clothesline that we had stupidly tried to get out of a tree with our pole pruner, just to have it eat our pole pruner. Very happy to have him on our side!

Probably helps that we pay him a significant amount of money to take care of our yard. This means it gets taken care of and he neither has to look at a messy yard nor deal with the mice that used to come into the house with acres of fields nearby.

IP

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…might stop at the township clerk’s office to see if they retained the records of when I worked at a polling place

Went out to run some errands today, so added the township hall to my stops. Yes, they do purge the records of people who volunteered to work at polling places, eventually. They keep the records for at least two years, so they can contact those people about working at a polling place again. If a person does not volunteer to work again, enough times, their records are purged, but the person I was talking to did not have a definitive answer to how many election cycles it took to be purged, and the person who did have the definitive answer was out of the office right then. So, unless I think of asking that same question when I’m at the township hall to pay my winter property taxes, I’ll wait to see if I get the mail blast to volunteer again. No letter will indicate I have been purged. If I do get a letter, then the dilemma is do I volunteer to work the primary only, so that I can “correct” the affiliation record. I would not want to work the general in 24, given the chances of a gang of Sturmtruppen showing up to intimidate people.

Steve

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…what you most need to survive hard times is a functioning decent community of people who are capable of sticking together and following the traditions of basic decency.

That’s pretty much the argument of the fascinating book I’m reading now, by Paul Seabright. The Company of Strangers: A Natural History of Economic Life.

http://idei.fr/sites/default/files/medias/doc/by/seabright/c…

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I will say one of my sisters is making an escape plan. The other will probably follow. Depending on my finances I will follow.

We are are aimed at homes in Ireland. My sisters have dual citizenship in Ireland. I can gain it quickly.

The sisters’ four children, two each, have dual citizenship as well. The husbands Americans are in tow.

The main reason for the homes though is to see Europe in retirement. The homes are also an investment to leave the children.