**As of** **Friday, July 1, 2022**
**Status of the three(x5) used for Allocation: 100%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
Count of new signals in the last 30 days = **4 (Zero new signals since last week)**
**PO's: 0** of five indicators are "Bullish".
New signal is **unlikely** next week.
**MAC(10m): 0** of five indicators are "Bullish".
New signal is **unlikely** next week.
**DBE(99d,5m): 0** of five indicators are "Bullish".
Next possible 99 day new high is **-13.2%** %Off_Hi(99)
**Other_MAC: (FYI only) 100%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
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**Modern Family: Status Roles (leading indicators that act as a guide for the stock market macro picture)**
S&P 500 Index (.SPx) **BEARish** - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW (EQAL) **BEARish** - gauge the health of many Large-MidCap companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000 (IWM) **BEARish** - gauge the health of many Small-MicroCap companies within the U.S.
Transportation (IYT) **BEARish** - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail (XRT) **BEARish** - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Bank (KRE) **BEARish** - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech (IBB) **Warning** - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor (SMH) **BEARish** - innovation: a major player technology trends
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The Economic Modern Family (MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for “Market Analysis”. Trend indicators that give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
*My Modern Family signals(3) are not strictly identical to the MarketGauge.com “Phases Tutorial”(6).
88% - “BEARish” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages while the 50-DMA is below the 200-DMA.
13% - “Cautionary Warning” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0% - “Cautionary Watch” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0% - “Bullish” phase is when the price(5d) is above the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
6% - “Support” is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
94% - “Resistance” is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)
This seems like a good time to lighten up on commodities with many undecided “Expert” comments on Futures,
direction of future inflation, Fed rates and recession.
3 reasons to stay invested right now
When markets are volatile many investors seek safety. But cashing out can backfire.
FIDELITY WEALTH MANAGEMENT – 06/22/2022 4 MIN READ
MapG, I think your chart has a standard wall st. ‘error’ (in their favor, of course) built in.
Try a mirror image of their example.
What happens if you’re always in the market except during the worst days? Without doing a
backtest, my intuition suggests I’ll do better, probably much better than the market.
Suppose the markets can’t be timed
as many believe, but I still try to time it. Shouldn’t my choices to be in or out of the market give more or less random returns? If random, I’ll miss a ‘best’ day some of the time and
I’ll miss a ‘worst’ day some of the time, so long term I expect my behavior will give good/bad outcomes that should largely cancel each other.
3 reasons to stay invested right now… Missing out on best days can be costly … a hypothetical investor who missed just the best 5 days in the market over the past 4 decades could have reduced their long-term gains by 38%; someone who missed the best 10 days could have undermined their gains by 55%.
Man, I thought that old canard died years ago.
We really must still be in a bull market if they’re resorting to that kind of “broker economix”.
(i.e., say whatever you can that will cause retail investors to buy stocks now).
Obviously it’s a straw man–nobody knows what those days are, so nobody can ever have a timing system that caught them or missed them.
And the exact same reasoning applies in reverse:
The few very worst days are somewhat more extreme than the few very best days.
(e.g., best day in their chosen date range +11.5%, worst day -19.5%)
So, that same argument would argue in favour of being out of the market when the tea leaves are bad, since missing a super-bad day more than makes up for missing out on a super-good day.
Even if your timing system were entirely random, statistically it would probably improve risk adjusted returns on some metrics.
(this is a reverse straw man argument…do not do this!)
And, if I’m not mistaken, most of those super UP days came as counter rallies during longer downtrends. So, whatever you might have scored on the way up you lost over the next few days as the trend continued.
To expand on Mungofitch’s critique, Meb Faber in at least one of the GTAA/Ivy research papers debunked that old canard in a similar way - specifically, those 5 to 10 best days came mostly within bear markets when the 5 to 10 worst days were also happening; in market environments in which the indexes were below their 10M SMAs.
I wish Fidelity’s articles didn’t include low quality ones like that.
