Market Trend Indicators

MapG · April 8, 2022, 5:35pm

As of Friday, April 8, 2022

Including the three(x5) used for Allocation: 33% of fifteen indicators are “BEARish”.
Count of new signals in the last 30 days = 5 (One new “Bullish” signals since last week)

PO’s: 3 of five indicators are “Bullish”.
New signal is possible next week.

MAC(10m): 2 of five indicators are “Bullish”.
New signal is possible next week.

DBE(99d,5m): 5 of five indicators are “Bullish”.
New “BEAR” signals are expected (next Monday) 1 market days.

Other_MAC: (FYI only) 53% of fifteen indicators are “BEARish”.

 
**Modern Family:  Symbol:  Status:  Roles - leading indicators for how much follow through the major indices might experience**
S&P 500 Index     .SPx   **Bullish** - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW    EQAL   **Bullish** - gauge the health of many Large-MidCap companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000      IWM    **Warning** - gauge the health of many Small-MicroCap companies within the U.S.
Transportation    IYT    **BEARish** - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail            XRT    **BEARish** - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Bank     KRE    **Warning** - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech           IBB    **Warning** - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor     SMH    **Warning** - innovation: a major player technology trends

 **8-Apr-2022       |     PO's        PO's     |  MAC(10m)    MAC(10m)   |  DBE(99,105)  DBE(99,105)   |  Other_MAC   Other_MAC   |    Buy&Hold**
       =====            =====       =====        =====      =====         =====         =====        =====       =====          =====
 **Status Summary     |    Status    LastD_Chg   |   Status    LastD_Chg   |    Status       LastD_Chg   |   Last_MAC   LastD_Chg   |  Last_Chg(TTM)**
SP600 (IJR) Daily    **|**   Bullish   2022-03-22  **|** BEARish    2022-01-31  **|**   Bullish      2020-08-10  **|**   Bullish   2022-03-23  **|**    2022-04-06
SP400 (MDY) Daily    **|**   Bullish   2022-04-04  **|** BEARish    2022-02-01  **|**   Bullish      2021-10-20  **|**   Bullish   2022-03-23  **|**    2022-03-23
SP500EW (RSP) Daily  **|**   BEARish   2022-02-23  **|** Bullish    2022-03-23  **|**   Bullish      2020-09-02  **|**   BEARish   2022-03-25  **|**    2020-10-06
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily  **|**   BEARish   2022-02-24  **|** BEARish    2022-02-25  **|**   Bullish      2019-03-15  **|**   Bullish   2022-03-24  **|**    2020-05-22
SP500 (.SPx) Daily   **|**   Bullish   2022-03-21  **|** Bullish    2022-03-28  **|**   Bullish      2019-03-13  **|**   Bullish   2022-03-28  **|**    2020-05-22
**Cash_Alloc(Eq-Wt) =  |**     2        **40%     |**     3      **60%      |**      0        **0%       |**     8        **53.3%     |** 
       -----            -----       -----        -----      -----         -----         -----        -----       -----          -----
 **Price Derivatives   |  PPO(Inter)    PPO(Slo)  |  (TP,SMA)  SMA(TP,210)  |  %Off_Hi(99)  Since_Hi(99)  |    Last_MAC    Last_MAC  |     Last_Price**
SP600 (IJR) Daily    **|**       0.6%       -0.5%  **|**    -5.5%       110.73  **|**       -8.6%           104  **|**   (TP,50d)       -2.0%  **|**        104.24
SP400 (MDY) Daily    **|**       0.2%       -1.2%  **|**    -3.5%       494.96  **|**       -6.6%           104  **|**   (TP,50d)       -1.0%  **|**        477.03
SP500EW (RSP) Daily  **|**      -1.3%       -1.0%  **|**     1.0%       155.33  **|**       -3.5%            64  **|** (50d,200d)       -0.4%  **|**        156.89
SP1500 (ITOT) Daily  **|**      -3.7%       -3.3%  **|**    -1.7%       101.47  **|**       -5.4%            65  **|**   (TP,50d)        1.0%  **|**         99.60
SP500 (.SPx) Daily   **|**       1.2%        1.0%  **|**     0.3%      4479.20  **|**       -4.7%            65  **|**  (TP,210d)        0.3%  **|**       4488.28
       -----            -----       -----        -----      -----         -----         -----        -----       -----          -----

GD_

MapG · April 8, 2022, 5:37pm

**8-Apr-2022** |  Market Index  |  Market Index  |  ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily   ModernFamily
Family Titles:       |  Large Blend   |    Mid Blend   |   *"Grandpa"       "Tran"        "Grandma"   "Prodigal Son"  "Big Brother"    "Sister"*
Index: (daily)       |      SP500     |    R1000EW     |      R2000     Transportation     Retail     Regional Bank      BioTech     SemiConductor
**Symbol:              |      .SPX      |      EQAL      |      IWM             IYT           XRT             KRE            IBB            SMH**
                                
__Status:(3)*          |    Bullish     |    Bullish     |    Warning         BEARish       BEARish         Warning        Warning        Warning__
LastD_Change         |   2022-03-30   |   2022-03-30   |   2022-03-23     2022-04-07     2022-01-13     2022-03-09      2022-03-30     2022-04-06
Since_Change         |        9       |        9       |       16             1              85             30              9              2
Signals(3)/Yr        |        6       |       10       |        7             8               8             9               6              8
%Bullish/Yr          |      77%       |      63%       |      47%             46%           46%             61%            34%            71%
Status MAC(50)       |    Support     |    Support     |    Support       Resistance     Resistance     Resistance       Support        Support
Status MAC(200)      |    Support     |    Support     |   Resistance     Resistance     Resistance     Resistance      Resistance     Resistance
 
Slope(50)            |       1%       |       4%       |       2%             -1%           -5%             -9%             1%            -5%
Slope(200)           |       2%       |       0%       |      -13%            4%            -27%            14%           -35%             6%
Last_Price           |    4488.28     |      46.12     |     197.87         241.12          75.88         64.99           133.34         246.85
50-DMA               |    4427.07     |      45.30     |     201.72         260.21          77.51         71.37           128.27         265.74
200-DMA              |    4492.82     |      45.85     |     217.17         260.72          89.43         69.37           151.05         274.66
DMAC(50,200)         |      -1.5%     |      -1.2%     |      -7.1%         -0.2%          -13.3%          2.9%           -15.1%         -3.2%
 
%Off_52wH            |      -6.4%     |      -4.0%     |     -18.4%         -13.9%         -27.2%         -17.5%          -24.3%         -22.0%
LastD_52wH           |   2022-01-03   |   2021-11-15   |   2021-11-08     2022-01-04     2021-11-16     2022-01-14      2021-08-09     2021-12-27
Since_52wH           |       95       |      144       |      151             94            143             84             242            102
New_52wH/Yr          |       51       |       23       |        4             10             12             15              2              26
      ---                   ---              ---              ---             ---           ---             ---            ---            ---

**Modern Family:**   **Symbol:    Status:    Roles: leading indicators for how much follow through the major indices might experience**
S&P 500 Index           .SPx     **Bullish**   - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW          EQAL     **Bullish**   - gauge the health of many Large-Mid companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000            IWM      **Warning**   - gauge the health of many Small-Micro companies within the U.S.
Transportation          IYT      **BEARish**   - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail                  XRT      **BEARish**   - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Bank           KRE      **Warning**   - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech                 IBB      **Warning**   - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor           SMH      **Warning**   - innovation: a major player technology trends

The Economic Modern Family (MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for “Market Analysis”.
Intermedate-Term Trend indicators give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
*My Modern Family signals(3) are not strictly identical to the MarketGauge.com “Phases Tutorial”(6).
2 - “BEARish” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages while the 50-DMA is below the 200-DMA.
4 - “Cautionary Warning” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0 - “Cautionary Watch” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
2 - “Bullish” phase is when the price(5d) is above the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.

“Support” is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
“Resistance” is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)

GD_

MapG · April 14, 2022, 9:44am

Scanning the horizon for signs of recession
Despite rising rates and inflation, key data suggests any slowdown is a ways off.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS – 04/13/2022 5 MIN READ

Key takeaways

Geopolitical, supply chain, and policy challenges are pushing up inflation and interest rates, which are contributing to financial market volatility.

Despite these challenges, the US economy is continuing to grow and remains in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle when stock prices may continue to rise despite volatility.

A variety of factors are likely to keep the US economy from sliding into recession in the short term, including strong gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer spending, low unemployment, and rising wages.

https://www.fidelity.com/Learning-center/trading-investing/u…?

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