As of **Friday, April 22, 2022**
Including the three(x5) used for Allocation: **60%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
Count of new signals in the last 30 days = **6 (Zero new signals since last week)**
**PO's: 1** of five indicators are "Bullish".
New signal is possible next week.
**MAC(10m): 2** of five indicators are "Bullish".
New signal is possible next week.
**DBE(99d,5m): 3** of five indicators are "Bullish".
New "BEAR" signals are possible in **30** market days.
Other_MAC: (FYI only) **53%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
**Modern Family: Symbol: Status: Roles - leading indicators for how much follow through the major indices might experience**
S&P 500 Index .SPx **Warning** - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW EQAL **Bullish** - gauge the health of many Large-MidCap companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000 IWM **BEARish** - gauge the health of many Small-MicroCap companies within the U.S.
Transportation IYT **BEARish** - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail XRT **BEARish** - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Bank KRE **Warning** - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech IBB **Warning** - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor SMH **BEARish** - innovation: a major player technology trends
The Economic Modern Family (MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for “Market Analysis”. Intermedate-Term Trend indicators give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
*My Modern Family signals(3) are not strictly identical to the MarketGauge.com “Phases Tutorial”(6).
4 - “BEARish” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages while the 50-DMA is below the 200-DMA.
3 - “Cautionary Warning” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0 - “Cautionary Watch” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
1 - “Bullish” phase is when the price(5d) is above the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
“Support” is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
“Resistance” is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)
Mish- Because we are in a stagflation type of environment
Elan- Stagflation? The idiot clearly knows not what he speaks of.
What Is an Example of Stagflation? An example of stagflation is when a government prints currency (which would increase the money supply and create inflation), while raising taxes (which would slow economic growth)—resulting in stagflation.
Stagflation is a combination of two terms - economic stagnation and inflation. Stagnation means little or no economic growth. The current economic situation, with exceptionally high economic growth and low unemployment, is quite clearly the diametric opposite of stagnation.
is highly unstable, as slowly even Miss Stubbornness herself (Christine Lagarde) must admit.
A quote, currently(!) meant for a different part of the world:
Anne-Marie Gulde-Wolf, acting director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department … At the same time, inflation in Asia is also starting to pick up just as China’s economic slowdown is adding to pressure on regional growth, Gulde-Wolf also said.
“Therefore, the region faces a stagflationary outlook, with growth being lower than previously expected, and inflation being higher,” she told an online news conference in Washington, DC. … There is significant uncertainty around our baseline forecasts, with risks tilted to the downside,” she said.
<Stagflation is a combination of two terms - economic stagnation and inflation. Stagnation means little or no economic growth. The current economic situation, with exceptionally high economic growth and low unemployment, is quite clearly the diametric opposite of stagnation.>
Sorry, the last statement isn’t true. The current situation is NOT the diametric opposite of stagnation.
Inflation is high so it is not the diametric opposite of stagflation. Last year (2021), growth was high and inflation was low. THAT was the diametric opposite of stagflation.
Unfortunately, the immense fiscal stimulus ($5 Trillion, or 25% of 2020’s GDP) which stimulated the economy in 2021 has led to inflation in late 2021-2022. If inflation remains high and the economy slows as predicted, that will be stagflation. The Macro economy is a dynamic system that responds to stimulus, supply and demand.
The Macro economy is a dynamic system that responds to stimulus, supply and demand.
… and is too complex for one-dimensional cause-effect explanations like
the immense fiscal stimulus ($5 Trillion, or 25% of 2020’s GDP) which stimulated the economy in 2021 has led to inflation in late 2021-2022.
Inflation in the Euro zone shot up to the same numbers - but without the fiscal stimulus having been even nearly that big (If I just calculated halfway correct around 7% of GDP).
This is the quote I responded to - “Because we are in a stagflation type of environment”
claiming that we have stagflation here and now. That is pure nonsense.
And this is the quote you offered: At the same time, inflation in Asia is also starting to pick up just as China’s economic slowdown is adding to pressure on regional growth, Gulde-Wolf also said.
“Therefore, the region faces a stagflationary outlook, with growth being lower than previously expected, and inflation being higher,” she told an online news conference in Washington, DC. … There is significant uncertainty around our baseline forecasts, with risks tilted to the downside,” she said.
Yeah, a stagflation outlook, some time in the future, in China.
Stagflation is a combination of two terms - economic stagnation and inflation. Stagnation means little or no economic growth. The current economic situation, with exceptionally high economic growth and low unemployment, is quite clearly the diametric opposite of stagnation.
High inflation, negative Q1 GDP, the only thing missing is high unemployment. I don’t think this situation is the diametric opposite of stagnation.