**12-Aug-22 As of** **Friday, August 12, 2022**
LastD
**87% Status of the three(x5) used for Allocation: 87%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
**2** Count of new signals in the last 30 days = **2 (One new signals since last week)**
LastD
**2 PO's: 2** of five indicators are "Bullish".
**possible** New signal is **possible** next week.
LastD
**0 MAC(10m): 0** of five indicators are "Bullish".
**not likely** New signal is **not likely** next week.
LastD
**0 DBE(99d,5m): 0** of five indicators are "Bullish".
**-5.2%** Next possible 99 day new high is **-5.2%** %Off_Hi(99)
LastD
**67% Other_MAC: (FYI only) 67%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
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**Modern Family:** **Symbol: Status: Roles (leading indicators that act as a guide for the stock market macro picture)**
S&P 500 Index .SPx **Warning** - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW EQAL **Warning** - gauge the health of many Large-Mid companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000 IWM **Warning** - gauge the health of many Small-Micro companies within the U.S.
Transportation IYT **Warning** - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail XRT **Warning** - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Bank KRE **Warning** - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech IBB **Warning** - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor SMH **Warning** - innovation: a major player technology trends
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The Economic Modern Family (MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for “Market Analysis”. Trend indicators that give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
*My Modern Family signals(3) are not strictly identical to the MarketGauge.com “Phases Tutorial”(6).
0% - “BEARish” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages while the 50-DMA is below the 200-DMA.
100% - “Cautionary Warning” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0% - “Cautionary Watch” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0% - “Bullish” phase is when the price(5d) is above the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
50% - “Support” is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
50% - “Resistance” is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)
Timmer: What to make of the market’s rally
Is it a new bull market, or just a bear-market bounce?
BY JURRIEN TIMMER, DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL MACRO FOR FIDELITY MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH COMPANY (FMRCO), FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS – 08/17/2022 4 MIN READ
Key takeaways
With the market up significantly from the lows it touched in June, stocks have now recaptured roughly 50% of the total losses they’d suffered this year.
Bear-market rallies are difficult to distinguish from bull-market beginnings.
One clue may be whether the gains cross much above that 50% mark, as this has rarely happened in past bear-market rallies.
Even if the bear market is over, there may be little earnings or valuation support for stocks to make strong gains from here.
This combined indicator is “Neutral”, but have a closer look: From the 7 single indicators this index consists of 3 signal “Extreme Greed” and 2 “Extreme Fear”. So although it is neither bullish (though close to) nor bearish the underlying sentiments are extreme, in both directions.
Your amateur psychologist here thinks such extreme sentiments should be prone to being unstable, far from indicating a healthy bull market. Comments?
We might be seeing some irrational exuberance and a bounce that is noticeably bouncier than what would be expected in a mere rally. OR… since we have already broken, and pretty severely so, the pattern of lower highs followed by lower lows, we might just be entering a prolonged positive phase i.e. new Bull. Anybody know more about that particular pattern? I’m sure it’s not fail-safe but just how many are there historically that do NOT signal a new Bull phase? Ones that get as close as this one is to the 40 week moving average.
Which brings up another famous pattern. If this keeps up next week we could be 2% above the 40 week/200 day MA which is usually a starter’s pistol for the stock market. In fact if tomorrow is a really, really good day we could see it tomorrow, but in recent days I get the feeling the market is trying to catch its breath and decide.