OT:Escalation of Middle East Conflict Risk

Neocons are pushing the current president to strike Iran due to drone attacks upon US military personnel due to US support of Israel’s Gaza military action. US response of course is missile attacks in Yemen and Iraq. This is unlikely to deter further drone attacks. We have learned from our meddlings in the Middle East that our opponents are quite willing to accept casualties as US drone missile attacks also kill innocents and generate more volunteers that now detest the USA.
We currently have the Ukraine War, our economic war against China and of course the war by Israel against the Palestinians on the stove simmering. And now wish to add a potential war with Iran to the mix.

Our leaders had to know this was a cost of supporting Israel. And that the easily predicted attacks would not be deterred by missile strikes. But at least those missile show that our nation is doing something.

I preferred it when we were withdrawing FROM areas of endless dollar expenditures & loss of US life.

The US continues to spend more than it takes in.

Our nation can print more greenbacks to pay the tab. But how long before the US becomes Venezuela?

Lovable Joe will find his way out of the box. He quietly always does. He won’t be pushed into anything that will cause an all-out escalation.

He might go directly after Iranian assets to put them in pause mode. If they have much of a navy one of their larger ships.

The increase of cheap effective military equipment [2] shows the US & friends are much more vulnerable now. The Jordan airbase attack is an example.
This is important as our US troops in Syria, a violation of international law, are supplied from US bases in Jordan.

Confirmation that C-RAM units are the principal air defence systems operating at US bases in Syria and Iraq, including Al-Tanf and Tower-22, came last October from former Pentagon official, Stephen Bryen. Bryen claimed at the time “for years I have complained that vulnerable American bases in Iraq and Syria lacked adequate air defenses. Bottom line: they still do.” When Bryen was at the Pentagon, he was also unusually close to the Israeli government.[1]

Also Israeli intelligence in the regions is not a good as previously or opponents are much more stealthy. Prime example is the initial Hamas attack upon Israel.


Israeli military and intelligence officials have concluded that a significant number of weapons used by Hamas in the Oct. 7 attacks and in the war in Gaza came from an unlikely source: the Israeli military itself.

For years, analysts have pointed to underground smuggling routes to explain how Hamas stayed so heavily armed despite an Israeli military blockade of the Gaza Strip. But recent intelligence has shown the extent to which Hamas has been able to build many of its rockets and anti-tank weaponry out of the thousands of munitions that failed to detonate when Israel lobbed them into Gaza, according to weapons experts and Israeli and Western intelligence officials. Hamas is also arming its fighters with weapons stolen from Israeli military bases.

What is clear now is that the very weapons that Israeli forces have used to enforce a blockade of Gaza over the past 17 years are now being used against them.

How embarassing.

The below makes sense to me.

The now-familiar tt-for-tat sequence in which American airstrikes against militias in Iraq or Syria alternate with more militia attacks on the U.S. installations illustrates a perverse form of mission creep. Whatever was the original mission of the U.S. troop presence gets sidelined as protection of the troop presence itself becomes the main concern. The tt-for-tats also carry the risk of escalation into a larger conflict.

It is time to cut and run as President Reagan did after the Lebanon truck bombing.

Iraq’s prime minister has given multiple interviews in recent days declaring that his country is no longer interested in hosting 2,500 troops deployed there in support of the mission to defeat ISIS. But that public rhetoric has not translated to any formal requests either to the Pentagon or White House, according to U.S. officials.

Ungratful b*stards! After everything we done TO them.

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The West has been fighting off Islam for close to 14 centuries. They were stopped multiple times at Poitiers in 732, just 100 years after the founding of Islam. At Vienna twice. At Lepanto where Miguel Cervantes de Saavedra lost use of his left arm.

They would love nothing better than for the West to quit and give up. Get ready to have all your churches converted to mosques.

The Captain


As pointed out on this board, a while back, if the US did not have troops all over the ME, they would not be targets.

The US can’t pull them out now, as the opposition would paint the withdrawal as “cowardly”, and link it to the Fox Noise version of the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Factions in the US have been spoiling for an excuse to attack Iran ever since the people of Iran had the nerve to toss a US backed, brutally repressive, dictator.

The US can’t back out, without some sort of face saving maneuver. The alternative is escalating reprisals.


Various news sources are now saying Mossad, IDF, Shinbet all had alerts to the impending attack… A year ago.

Here’s one. They all seem to link the same info?

A couple days ago, I saw an article reporting that the politicians refused to acknowledge the intelligence.

So, "intelligence " might not be as bad as assumed?
Maybe it’s “politics”?

Perhaps if Israel had NOT pulled out of Gaza two decades ago, and had maintained a security force in Gaza, Hamas would not have been able to amass these weapons?

Instead, Israel bowed to international pressure, … And on 7 Oct suffered ANOTHER attack.
Perhaps this time, Israel will actually eliminate Hamas.
And create a vacuum to be filled by the next terrorist group.

This “conflict” has been going on since the Dark Ages when Europe was in decline and the Mideast decided they had a mandate to rule the world.
Their book mandates they kill all infidels.
Turning a blind eye today will only lead to more infidel death and suffering.
Infidels striking back doesn’t create the terrorist hoard. Their fanatical religion creates it.



The main Iran issue has little to do with all these sponsored skirmishes in various areas of the middle east. Iran is purposely keeping the region on “simmer” until they can demonstrate to the world that they are truly powerful by detonating a test nuclear weapon in their desert. That’s going to come soon, maybe this year, maybe in 5 years, but definitely sometime within the next 10 years.


For years, the various governments led by Benjamin Netanyahu took an approach that divided power between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank — bringing Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to his knees while making moves that propped up the Hamas terror group.

The idea was to prevent Abbas — or anyone else in the Palestinian Authority’s West Bank government — from advancing toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Thus, amid this bid to impair Abbas, Hamas was upgraded from a mere terror group to an organization with which Israel held indirect negotiations via Egypt, and one that was allowed to receive infusions of cash from abroad.

One thing is clear: The concept of indirectly strengthening Hamas — while tolerating sporadic attacks and minor military operations every few years — went up in smoke Saturday.

As I stated further up; In 1983 Ronald Reagan cut & ran in Lebanon.

Thirty years ago this week, President Ronald Reagan made perhaps the most purposeful and consequential foreign-policy decision of his presidency. Though he never said so explicitly, he ended America’s military commitment to a strategic mistake that was peripheral to America’s interests. Three-and-a-half months after the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 U.S. military personnel – and after repeatedly pledging not to do so – Reagan ordered the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Lebanon. As Gen. Colin Powell later aptly summarized this military misadventure: “Beirut wasn’t sensible and it never did serve a purpose. It was goofy from the beginning.”


In 2001, FBI field offices were reporting to DC that very sketchy characters were training to fly airliners. The US Attorney General, the FBI’s boss, saying he was acting on a “threat assessment” started flying charter, rather than commercial airliners, in the summer of 2001. The administration was packed with members and associates of PNAC, which was saying it would take a “Pearl Harbor scale event” to get the mob behind their ambition of USian military domination of the world. That “Pearl Harbor scale event” happened on 9/11, enabling police state tactics at home, and made up wars abroad.

So, if a government wanted an excuse to launch an ethnic cleansing operation, and their intelligence services were reporting an impending terrorist attack, of such a scale to shock the sensibilities enough to gain popular support for an ethnic cleansing operation, would the government let the attack proceed, to enable it’s greater, long term, goal?

Remember, Churchill let Coventry be bombed into rubble, to keep the secret that German codes had been broken.



That is not true. That is the problem that is not true.

That is not true for the Muslim Brotherhood. That is not true for Russia. That might be true only for China. But I doubt it.

Just tucking the tail won’t prevent anything.

Hamas is like a guy I knew in my senior year who was beating his girlfriend. His dad the town drunk taught him how to fight. One night he got into a fight with Bobby an older guy who was a lot tougher and stronger. The guy was told by his dad always fight until the other guy gets tired. Bobby never got tired that night. Five fights in that girlfriend beater gave up a bloody mess.

The only time I ever actually saw the dad he was drunk and passed out between the seats of a booth in a go-go bar. Not who you would ever need any advice from.

I know what you mean.

I remember when ME terrorists attacked the World Trade Center in Jordon. Or was it Egypt? I forget which one.


Those targets were south of Connecticut in Argentina.

Those perps were mostly Saudis, with a couple from the UAE. and one each from Egypt and Lebanon. None were from where the US launched it’s wars of revenge, in spite of Fox Noise’s efforts to convince people otherwise. None were from where US troops are staked out as bait, and drawing fire, now.

There are several (L&Ses) in DC that are openly demanding large attacks on Iran.



Middle Eastern borders are soft post-colonial stuff.

The Islamic schism was why we were attacked in NYC. Had nothing to do with a thousand other ways to lay off the blame somewhere else. That schism is throughout the cultures in the Middle East.

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I gave that action a lot of thought. I could not understand why America would turn tail. Years later I came up with an explanation after reading

Ronald Reagan was a second rate actor but an actor nonetheless. The best role he ever played was POTUS! for which he reheated for years. The villain in POTUS was, of course, the USSR which POTUS had to destroy. Total success! Down came the Wall. Down came the USSR.

Reagan never rehearsed the Levant or the Middle East as its now commonly called. He could not play the part.

The Captain


Reagan was brassy. It is highly questionable that he had any clue what he was doing. Most of the economic stuff backfired. He was too out of it know understand that.

Pray tell what is your solution to terrorist attacks on shipping through the Red Sea?

Simply let them happen?

You think if we bring troops home from Iraq and Syria that the attacks on shipping will simply go away?