Own 'em both

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

Who would have thought that in the last month or two
CRWD, DDOG, DOCU, NET, ZM would all in negative territory-
down about 20% while

these were up 20% to 40%-

Hilton Hotels - H
United Airlines - UAL
Marriott Hotels - MAR
Royal Carib. Cruise- RCL
Norwegian Cruise - NCLH

Is this a change by investors to find Gretzky’s “where the puck will be”-
where the human desires of personal freedom- will replace
all the deep dive analysis of the techs.

I own both groups- the first group really help my '20 port, but
a big drag now only helped by the second.

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I don’t want to diverge too far on the intent of this board but a quick comment to your post:

  • High multiple growth tech was likely pretty over priced and has corrected some of that. Timing is always tricky and I meant to take more profits but was greedy and we never know how high it keeps going. Even now I like the companies I own, I just like my balances less… But to answer your question a 20% drop in these names was very predictable at some pt only question was when.

  • Its a lot easier to feel ok with big price changes when your purchase price is still a pretty good gain from the adjusted price. Its a lot more difficult on a new position or if you just invested a fairly large amount. Timing matters but time in market matters more over the long term.

  • The reopen trades are also overheated now like the tech stocks did. Anyone just going there now likely missed most of the move. Airlines, hotels and cruise lines have not been stocks most people wanted to own over the last x years. Cruiselines were good until covid but all of these are asset intense, high competition, low profit margin businesses mostly.

  • Cycles and swings are speeding up as is volatility. We have been benefactors of mostly straight up trends for a long while and that’s now reversing or at least pausing. This is where the long term owner vs. trader concept is helpful.

  • All companies/industries really must be into and invest big in tech now to stay competitive. This creates pretty nice moats for those companies that innovate in these spaces (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Salesforce, Servicenow, Datadog, most other real saas businesses etc etc… People can only rotate out of tech for so long because tech really is the driver behind the digital economy moving everything forward.

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While I realize this thread is OT, I thought it’d be an opportunity to showcase how well the kind companies discussed on this board have fared in the last year compared to the value stocks tpoto listed.

One year returns to date - including the recent selloff in the Saas/growth sector. (and the recent spike in the value names)

CRWD: 237%
DDOG: 102%
DOCU: 135%
NET: 196%
ZM: 193%

Average: 172%

H: 22.7%
UAL: -12.4%
MAR: 23.65%
RCL: 15.4%
NCLH:-.3%

Average: 9.8%

This exercise helped me put things in perspective. :slight_smile:

Best,

Brian

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H: 22.7%
UAL: -12.4%
MAR: 23.65%
RCL: 15.4%
NCLH:-.3%

Average: 9.8%

–
This whole thread is OT and probably gets yanked, but the above is just cherry-picking.
In 2 weeks, the above dramatically changes as the prices for many/most hit bottom around March 18th or so.

Every one of those stocks is probably 100-200% up from that point.
I moved into SPG last Summer, and as an example it is up almost 3x from the March low.

But this board isn’t about sector rotations or timing. It is about growth stocks.
Otherwise there would be a lot of SPG threads…mainly started by me. :slight_smile:

Dreamer

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Others made similar points while I was typing this out, but I figured I’d take a crack at sticking up for growth stocks anyway. It might also provide some context for new readers experiencing this type of drawdown for the first time.

Who would have thought that in the last month or two
CRWD, DDOG, DOCU, NET, ZM would all in negative territory-
down about 20% while

these were up 20% to 40%-

Hilton Hotels - H
United Airlines - UAL
Marriott Hotels - MAR
Royal Carib. Cruise- RCL
Norwegian Cruise - NCLH

I’d wager very few to none of us would have thought that. But no one could have foreseen COVID, and many SaaS stocks clearly benefitted from 2020’s changed landscape. To make matters worse, none of us knows exactly what the post-COVID landscape will look like either. Predicting the future is always an educated guess at best. The only investing clue we have is history has generally favored buying the best businesses you can find and waiting for the market judge accordingly.

Just for kicks, I wondered what would happen if I had put my money in these names on January 1, 2020 before any of us really knew COVID was a thing. I admittedly didn’t do all of them but don’t think I really have to. Even including the last few weeks you mention above, here are the results:


	Price	Price	
	1/1/20	3/4/21	Gain
CRWD	$50.03	$192.99	286%
DDOG	$37.78	$85.00	125%
DOCU	$74.11	$210.62	184%
H	$89.71	$84.84	-5%
UAL	$88.09	$52.05	-41%
RCL	$133.51	$91.61	-31%

Is this a change by investors to find Gretzky’s “where the puck will be”-
where the human desires of personal freedom- will replace
all the deep dive analysis of the techs.

Maybe? While “human desires” will certainly never end, I doubt “deep dive analysis” is going anywhere either. To expand your hockey analogy, even Gretzky lost a faceoff every once in a while. Lucky for him, he always seemed to remember the game is three periods long.

I own both groups- the first group really help my '20 port, but
a big drag now only helped by the second.

I know my chart only covers 14 months, but is a few weeks of “help” really worth all that drag if you’ve owned both for any bulk of that time? And what’s the business thesis supporting these recently “helpful” stocks carrying a portfolio the next 14 months? Because unless I’m mistaken, that’s the real puck we should all be chasing.

Picking stocks is extremely hard. Chasing flavors of the week based on moods of the market is even harder. Fortunately, each of us gets to decide which we prefer.

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In my various attempts to find better tea leaf readers,I found this guy… Don’t know much about him, I’ve only followed him for a couple days, but he has some good perspective.

https://dtmagazine.com/money228-362021.php

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This thread is OT but … famous last words.

Come on folks, this is a board dedicated to high level growth stocks. If you want you want to talk about H, UAL, etc. then go to the appropriate boards. THIS IS NOT THE PLACE. There are plenty of other boards in TMF world for those – check out Value Hounds, Dividend Growth Investing, etc.

I am a relative newbie here and while my portfolio is a mix of “Saul stocks” and others (growth, dividend, etc.) even this old Fool has read the Knowledge Board and other instructions for this board and knows NOT to post this type of discussion here.

This thread is COMPLETELY OFF TOPIC for this board and needs to stop.

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I’ve been every type of investor in the past 10 years. I bought Apple and Tesla in 2013 and sold them soon after because I couldn’t take the stress of the changes. I switched to low-cost index funds for a few years, then Schwab’s Intelligent Advisory for a few more years.
During quarantine, I started dabbling in options trading. After enough articles from TheVerge about self-proclaimed idiots who eat crayons making millions, I put $5,000 into a Robinhood account. Then the worst thing that could happen happened - I made money on my first 8 options trades. A lot. Which I thought meant I was a genius with previously untapped instincts. Then I bought 8 more options that all ended valueless. I’m not a genius.

I decided it’d be smart to read about smart options traders. I switched from naked calls to call spreads, long puts to put spreads, and even dabbled in synthetic longs and diagonals. I still don’t know what an Iron Condor is.

In January I made a bunch of money on GameStop and then I subsequently lost almost all that money on GameStop. I decided to read more content from smart people. I read GauchoRico and Saul’s Investing Discussions on TheMotleyFool and it clicked. This is the thesis I wanted - buy good companies who are increasing their profits each year and hold them for the medium to long term. I looked at their research, then did my own. These companies were extremely legit.

This takes us to mid-February, I take a (fundamentally no-risk loan) from my 401k which was getting meh returns over the past 8 years. I get out of everything I bought in March 2020 (United Airlines, Marriott, Moderna, Six Flags). I pivot my entire portfolio. Tech stocks start going down a little bit, I start buying these dips, increasing my positions. Here’s where I am now:

TTD - 9.68% of account: -30.72%
SHOP - 5.62% of account: -27.27%
CRWD - 5.6% of account: -24.42%
FVRR - 4.62% of account: -12.34%
SQ - 4.49% of account: -17.89%
TWLO - 4.33% of account: -28.23%
UPST - 4.17% of account: -49.57%

Overall, my portfolio is down 28% on the year, and really in the last 3 weeks. It’s amazing to watch an entire portfolio collapse immediately after it was opened. But the market isn’t, and hasn’t ever been, rational. The thesis is still sound, these companies are still incredibly strong. We’ll see how it stands a few months from now.

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As usual, I have very simple views on the subjects mentioned in this thread:

  1. Plodders plod. Some folks think slow growers (plodders) are great because they provide “stability”… but so does an anchor. Growth is key to wealth, not plodding… unless you’re willing to wait decades for a payoff that otherwise is feasible in just a few years.

  2. Corrections can be pretty amazing in their effect on one’s portfolio. But companies growing at 60%-100%+ per year have a way of rewarding shareholders anyway… if you’re patient. You just have to remember that… or be prepared to chew a lot of Tums. :wink:

  3. Options are sometimes referred to as “weapons of mass destruction”. A fabulous way to build… or destroy… a portfolio. As with most things in life, wise choices are key.

I have (or HAD…lol) a large proportion of my portfolio in call options and I’ve lost a bunch of money it seems. Not worried about it… see #2 above.

Rob
Rule Breaker Home Fool & STMP/MTH Maintenance Coverage Fool
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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