I still think it makes no sense for nvda and ddog and select others to be a double off may 2021 lows, while others are back at 2019 prices. I like it when things are relative. Let DDOG have a higher multiple - no problem with that. But why not down proportionately?
They get to $2b runrate when? So forward P/S is still above 20.
$40b is an insanely huge amount of money. We have been giving it away to HOOD, U, RBLX, or just about any SPAC tied to EVs, etc etc…
I may just have to write off DDOG and never own it.
I may just have to write off TTD and say thanks for the good times, but we aren’t getting back together.
I may just never own SNOW long-term, despite thinking data is a great place to be, as it is always growing and no one ever throws the old stuff away.
So maybe GLBE, if I feel Russia hasn’t disrupted global economy too much.
Maybe PTLO bc I have over 40 yrs experience with the product and know it will flourish, albeit slow and steady.
Maybe ROKU, because of rumblings of Disney+ moving to ads and maybe Netflix finally succumbs. That also brings TTD back into mix, too.
But I want CAGR.
That is all that matters.
Not my cost basis back when I bought it. Not whether I have a 2-bagger or a 10-bagger.
But is my port, right this very minute, going to outperform for next 3-6-9-12-18 months, if I feel on solid macro footing?
Yes, in taxable accounts, taxes are a thing. But my napkin math says we sweat this too much. I was over 100% for year in my taxable account and I sold all my stocks before EOY. On purpose. Because I thought SPG at $170 was as good as it was going to get. Because I thought GLBE from $50 to $66 or whatever was a November gift. How does SPG at $170 and GLBE at $66 look now? Should I have risked holding thru Jan? I can take the tax hit and still be up huge compared to delaying a tax hit and still winding up with less to work with.
I am getting dangerously close to trying to be too perfect.
Another huge drop in market and certain stocks from here wouldn’t shock me at all.
Today’s prices in many stocks being good CAGR by EOY wouldn’t shock me at all.
So what to do.
Will I be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence?
Two paths diverged on the internet, and I—
I just made some polls and mocked stuff.
Hope it makes all the difference.
Dreamer