Plug-in hybrid cars

Hawkwin
Who reserved his new EV on Friday for delivery by the end of the year - cause if he waits until 2023, he loses his $7500 tax credit.

Nice. Whatya getting?

We’ve been looking at the ID.4, which qualifies for the current tax credit. It should also qualify for the new one now they’ve started production in Chattanooga.

Our Bolt is now 13 months old, 21k miles. We’ve are happy with it. If the new tax credit applies to the Bolt (very likely), and GM don’t raise prices, a Bolt next year will start at $19k, less any state incentives. That’s a great deal for those that are happy driving a small hatchback.

… people driving EV’s aren’t going to drive as much (on average) as people driving ICE’s.

Got any data?

EV owners drive them much less than gas-powered cars
www.axios.com/2021/02/08/electric-vehicle-gas-powered-cars
Electric vehicle owners in California drive them less than half as many miles annually as the average gasoline-powered car in the U.S., a new analysis shows…

“Given the fleet of EVs in our sample…this translates to approximately 5,300 electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT) per year,” the paper finds.

DB2

2 Likes

Nice. Whatya getting?

Polestar 2.

Was going to hold out for the Q4 Etron Sportsback but those appear to be off the table for the rest of this year.

1 Like

An EV will save you close to $10,000…

No, a Tesla will save you close to $10K compared to other luxury ICE’s. For other makes and models, the prospective savings are much lower - and based on some rather dodgy assumptions at that (15K miles driven annually and a 3% discount rate).

Albaby

2 Likes

albaby1: and based on some rather dodgy assumptions at that (15K miles driven annually

That’s sort of funny, I’ve put ~15K Km (less than 10K miles) on my city car (Nissan Micra) in six years.

We live close to everything we need and fly to our vacations.

Anymouse

Jaak:"With regard to coolant as I said before it is insignificant in costs in comparison to brakes. Therefore, I have always followed the 30,000 mile rule. It is worth the small amount of money for the following reasons:

Coolant can deteriorate over time and should be tested to see if it’s still good, as it can be hard to tell just by appearances. Even if the coolant reservoir shows sufficient coolant level and testing shows the cooling and antifreeze protection are still adequate, a coolant drain and antifreeze flush may be needed.

The coolant can become more acidic over time and lose its rust-inhibiting properties, causing corrosion. Corrosion can damage the radiator, water pump, thermostat, radiator cap, hoses and other parts of the cooling system, as well as to the vehicle heater system. And that can cause a car engine to overheat.

Thus, the coolant in any vehicle with more than about 50,000 miles should be tested periodically. That’s to look for signs of rust, leaks and to make sure it has sufficient cooling and overheating protection, even if the cooling system seems to be working properly and the reservoir is full. The cooling system can be checked with test strips that measure acidity, and with a hydrometer that measures freezing and boiling protection.

If the corrosion inhibitors have deteriorated, the antifreeze coolant should be changed. The cooling system might also need flushing to remove contaminants no matter what the maintenance schedule calls for or how many miles are on the odometer."


The Manufacturers guide for my Chevy Malibu recommends coolant change at 100,000 mile intervals. Long ago, coolant was crappier than today. In your 1950s car, it would barely last 30,000 miles. For the last 30 years, manufacturers are using ‘long life’ coolant.

Having put over 500,000 miles on GM cars since 1990, cooling system problems aren’t. Neither are oil changes at 8000 miles (20% indicated oil life left). Nor changing spark plugs at 100K miles or more.

GM had planned alternator failure at 70K miles throughout the 70s and 80s into the 90s. Went through many of them pre 2007. Never more than 73K miles. Died right on schedule. then they got smart. Last two Malibus have no alternator problems. (2007 with 220,000 miles traded in and now 2016 with 148,000 miles). Did have to replace brakes at 135,000 on first one - and had rotors machined. New car at 148,000 still has ‘half the brake pad’ left.

Mufflers? back in the 1960s, they’d last 18 months. Now? Have not replaced a muffler on a car in last 20 years.

Back in 2005, did have to replace muffler, exhaust pipes on 15 year old Honda Accord with 135,00 miles on it. Drove it to 175K and traded it for new Prius. Still in great mechanical shape but 17 years old. Let someone else keep it running for more years.

What can you say? Some folks are obsessed with outdated early ‘fluid’ changes.

I’m not likely to drive a GM car far past 200,000 miles either. things start to fail. Everything from power windows to more suspension parts to who knows what.

Comparing my ‘dealer recommended’ service vs the actual manufacturer’s recommended service intervals, it seems most dealers are practicing ‘wallet cleaning’ - yours.

t.

2 Likes

Polestar 2.
That’s a nice-looking car. 400HP on the AWD version. Very much worth the extra $3500.

1 Like

No, a Tesla will save you close to $10K compared to other luxury ICE’s. For other makes and models, the prospective savings are much lower - and based on some rather dodgy assumptions at that (15K miles driven annually and a 3% discount rate).

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I am not talking just about the 2020 study. I am talking about the current situation with better EVs, better batteries, higher gasoline/oil prices, and better state/government subsidies.

Jaak

I am not talking just about the 2020 study. I am talking about the current situation with better EVs, better batteries, higher gasoline/oil prices, and better state/government subsidies.

If you like - but if you’re talking about the current situation, that also includes the fact that all of the EV manufacturers are facing high demand and capacity constraints - and are thus focusing their production towards higher-cost, higher-margin models:

High prices are caused by shortages of batteries, of raw materials like lithium and of components like semiconductors. Strong demand for electric vehicles from affluent buyers means that carmakers have little incentive to sell cheaper models. For low- and middle-income people who don’t have their own garages or driveways, another obstacle is the lack of enough public facilities to recharge.

The bottlenecks will take years to unclog. Carmakers and suppliers of batteries and chips must build and equip new factories. Commodity suppliers have to open new mines and build refineries. Charging companies are struggling to install stations fast enough. In the meantime, electric vehicles remain largely the province of the rich.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/08/business/energy-environme…

If we’re talking macro factors - how fast electric cars generally will penetrate the market - I think a longer-term view is more in order. Gas prices will continue receding from the Ukraine-driven spike, and the short-term supply chain kinks limiting production will get resolved. But as I’ve mentioned from time to time over the years, EV’s aren’t immune from the laws of supply and demand. While improving technology and economies of scale have helped push battery prices down, at some point all products will face an upward sloping supply curve, as increasing production volumes starts to put pressure on the costs of obtaining materials and labor. We’re starting to see that for EV’s as the transition really kicks off in Europe and China (not so much here):

But the declines won’t last much beyond that: E Source estimates battery cell prices will surge 22% from 2023 through 2026, peaking at $138 per kilowatt-hour, before they resume a steady decline through 2031— possibly to as low as $90 per kilowatt-hour.

The projected spike is the result of growing demand for key raw materials, like lithium, needed to make tens of millions of battery cells, Jaffe said.

“There is a literal shortage of lithium, and there’s going to be an even sharper shortage of lithium. You cannot make the batteries if you don’t mine the lithium,” he said.

The expected surge in battery costs could drive the price of EVs sold in 2026 up anywhere between $1,500 and $3,000 per vehicle, E Source predicts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/ev-battery-costs-set-to-spik…

EV’s are going to continue to be expensive, relative to their ICE alternatives. And they become less competitive with higher interest rates, which drive down the current value of future cost savings, other things being equal.

1 Like

I am not talking just about the 2020 study. I am talking about the current situation with better EVs, better batteries, higher gasoline/oil prices, and better state/government subsidies.

Pretty hard to close the gap between a Tesla Model X ($121k) and a Toyota Highlander ($45k) with fuel savings, maintenance and subsidies.

PSU

4 Likes

t: What can you say? Some folks are obsessed with outdated early ‘fluid’ changes.

I’m not likely to drive a GM car far past 200,000 miles either. things start to fail. Everything from power windows to more suspension parts to who knows what.

Comparing my ‘dealer recommended’ service vs the actual manufacturer’s recommended service intervals, it seems most dealers are practicing ‘wallet cleaning’ - yours.

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Sounds to me that you are penny wise and pound foolish. Things will go wrong sooner than later for you.

Most drivers do not know much of the engineering (what is under the car/hood) of ICE vehicles. I am not slave to any of the dealer or manufacturer recommendations (they do not guarantee consumables and only limited warranty on equipment) which depends on how, when and where the car was driven. With the excessive heat, humidity and cold that climate change is bringing car manufacturers and dealers need to upgrade their products and recommendations for the increased stress being put on cars.

I know what my cars need and when they need it. I do not want to be stranded on some out of the way place with broken water hose, bad battery, broken drive belt, flat tire, or any other common hazards with the many systems and components. I work closely with an independent auto mechanic only - I do not use dealers service centers. Therefore, I change the coolant, brake fluid, brake pads, and some other consumables more frequently than manufacturer/dealer recommendations based on wear/deterioration that I see.

Some people take their cars to the car wash daily/weekly and do not care about that cost. But some people do not take care of the mechanical aspects of their cars until they break.

Jaak

1 Like

Pretty hard to close the gap between a Tesla Model X ($121k) and a Toyota Highlander ($45k) with fuel savings, maintenance and subsidies.

PSU

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Silly comparison. Why not compare it to a Tesla Model 3 ($47K) with fuel, maintenance and subsidies?

Jaak

2 Likes

EV owners drive them much less than gas-powered cars
www.axios.com/2021/02/08/electric-vehicle-gas-powered-cars
Electric vehicle owners in California drive them less than half as many miles annually as the average gasoline-powered car in the U.S., a new analysis shows…

“Given the fleet of EVs in our sample…this translates to approximately 5,300 electric vehicle miles traveled (eVMT) per year,” the paper finds.

DB2

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This working paper is based on data from 2017 to 2019. The authors admit they use very subjective data and recommend that more research needs to be done.

Can you find anything more recent and better data to reflect the recovery from the pandemic?

Jaak

2 Likes

If you like - but if you’re talking about the current situation, that also includes the fact that all of the EV manufacturers are facing high demand and capacity constraints - and are thus focusing their production towards higher-cost, higher-margin models:

Loving it! Great inflation hedge! Recently bought Rivian (RIVN) after it hit bottom like the Hype Cycle said it would! Cost basis $29.51, Rivian is one of the few EV startups likely to flourish with the backing of Amazon. https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…

…and ARKK (started buying a bit too early) https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…

The Captain

1 Like

Silly comparison. Why not compare it to a Tesla Model 3 ($47K) with fuel, maintenance and subsidies?

I imagine because the Model 3 isn’t an SUV, and the Highlander is. They’re very different vehicle types.

If you’re looking at Tesla offerings, the closer one would be the Model Y - but that’s also not really a comparable vehicle, since the Model Y is more of a smaller luxury crossover (which is partly why it starts at $66K).

There aren’t many full-size electric SUV’s on offer in the US (outside of some super-pricey luxury vehicles), as most manufacturers are focusing first on the midsize and crossover segments. So there’s no real BEV comp for a full-size SUV like the Highlander.

Albaby

So there’s no real BEV comp for a full-size SUV like the Highlander.

I think the Highlander is considered mid-size. Tesla’s are in a class of their own. I guess there’s the BMW whatever it is, maybe an Audi?

A decent EV/ICE smaller SUV comparison would be the VW ID.4 and the Toyota RAV4.

ID.4 starts at $38,790 ($31,290 after tax credit).

RAV4 starts at $28,990 with BSM, but still not as well equipped as the base ID.4.
RAV4 hybrid starts at $31,590 with BSM.
RAV4 plug-in hybrid starts at $41,635.

So, the ID.4 is starting to be competitive, if you can deal with the range limitations.

We’ve done 21k miles in our EV in 13 months, no single journey more than 120 miles. We have an ICE van for the long trips. I’d like the van replacement to be a plug-in hybrid. Hopefully Toyota will have a plug-in Sienna by then.

Silly comparison. Why not compare it to a Tesla Model 3 ($47K) with fuel, maintenance and subsidies?

Tesla Model X - can seat 7, tows 5000 lbs, SUV
Toyota Highlander - can seat 7, tows 5000 lbs, SUV
Tesla Model 3 - can seat 5, cannot tow, car

And you call my comparison silly.

PSU

2 Likes

This working paper is based on data from 2017 to 2019. The authors admit they use very subjective data and recommend that more research needs to be done.

Can you find anything more recent and better data to reflect the recovery from the pandemic?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA

The total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reached a high on February 2020 before the pandemic reduced the amount of driving people did and as of May 2022 had not yet returned to the old high. It is close and it wouldn’t be surprising June number exceed the February 2020 VMT. So it would seem to me the working paper used the best available data since the pandemic distorted the 2020 and 2021 numbers and the 2022 numbers are too new for the study.

PSU

3 Likes

I think the Highlander is considered mid-size.

Really? I didn’t know that. It’s certainly a larger vehicle than most of the EV SUV’s available in the U.S., and it’s got a third row of seating (which again most BEV’s don’t).

As for the ID.4, I think it’s a little more expensive than you indicate. KBB and Edmunds both put the MSRP for the base model as over $40K, compared to the $29K for the RAV4 (they raised the prices from last year by about $1K). Though since the trim levels aren’t comparable, that overstates the price gap - but it’s still going to be a sizable BEV premium. That premium would probably be wiped out with a full EV credit…but it’s not yet clear whether that will still be available going forward.

https://www.kbb.com/volkswagen/id4/
https://www.edmunds.com/volkswagen/id4/

As for the ID.4, I think it’s a little more expensive than you indicate. KBB and Edmunds both put the MSRP for the base model as over $40K, compared to the $29K for the RAV4 (they raised the prices from last year by about $1K). Though since the trim levels aren’t comparable, that overstates the price gap - but it’s still going to be a sizable BEV premium. That premium would probably be wiped out with a full EV credit…but it’s not yet clear whether that will still be available going forward.

I got the ID.4 pricing from VW’s website:

https://www.vw.com/en/models/id-4.html

“Starting MSRP $37,495?
As low as $29,995?(after potential federal tax credit)”

Plus destination.