Putin in a corner with a can of paint

Russia says it will take nothing less but NATO expansion ban

MOSCOW (AP) — Russia maintained a tough posture amid the tensions over its troop buildup near Ukraine, with a top diplomat warning Wednesday that Moscow will accept nothing less but “watertight” U.S. guarantees precluding NATO’s expansion to Ukraine.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, … reaffirmed that Moscow has no intentions of invading Ukraine

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-says-it-will-tak…

If the implied threat to invade Ukraine is not real, Putin has no leverage to dictate policy to NATO. If he cuts off nat gas supplies, he loses customers.

I posted a scenario on the Quagmire last night about how “civil unrest” could be fomented in Ukraine to “justify” Russian incursion to “restore order”.

Steve

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I posted a scenario on the Quagmire last night about how “civil unrest” could be fomented in Ukraine to “justify” Russian incursion to “restore order”.

Steve

The obvious parallels to 1938 Austria and Czechoslovakia are quite unsettling.

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Seems like Putin is playing to the Russian public with that announcement.

He can leave his army on the border for years. But he has to pay them.

The threat is real.

Putin has no leverage to dictate policy to NATO either way. He wishes.

If Putin’s Russia gets over extended Ukraine will come into NATO. Meaning any war Putin engages in will in its aftermath give the west a chance to bring the Ukraine in. Russia weakens herself if she engages militarily anywhere. Because the Oligarchs strip Russia of economic power. Armed conflict would leave Russia with less militarily.

Note after every American war we discuss retooling our military. It is not just talk.

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I posted a scenario on the Quagmire last night about how “civil unrest” could be fomented in Ukraine to “justify” Russian incursion to “restore order”.

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Ukraine’s government is not like Kazakhstan’s government. Ukraine is more likely to request help from EU/NATO countries that border Ukraine: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

Ukraine is a priority partner for the European Union. The EU supports Ukraine in ensuring a stable, prosperous and democratic future for its citizens.

Jaak