I’ve been hearing more and more that WWIII has already started. Enough so that I now agree. For example, consider this:
Now Bill Ackman agrees:
I understand why we are not directly involved - it would make WWIII a formal reality, and bring the possibility of nukes being used by Putin, which he has threatened. But maybe we need to call his bluff. As Ackman says:
But Ackman argued that NATO’s reluctance to intervene due to the nuclear threat posed by Russia was a poor strategic move.
“What then do we do when [Putin] wants more?” Ackman asked. “The nuclear threat is no different when he takes his next country, whether it is part of NATO or not, and by then we are strategically worse off.”
We need to get involved. Start with no-fly. Stop him. Now. Risk the nukes as bad as that sounds.
While I have been rotating my portfolio since January into more value (but not out of tech completely either), I have been reluctant to do more. For example, to abandon QQQ entirely go full value, or large cash. Over the last 5 years each of my panics were soon reversed as mistakes. And I’ve let that guide me this time around. If I had stuck with my January portfolio I’d be 12% lower still on top of my 18% loss YTD. I think it was a mistake this time.
But my guiding principle in this is either:
- This ends soon, and markets pop big time
- This escalates, and my IRA becomes the last of my worries