Semi-patiently slogging thru Q4 2024

Investment Analysis Clubs Hohum's RollerCoaster Ride
21

11/14
Somewhat active day

  • GSM nibble in Roth ac
  • Trimmed IEP in taxable ac
  • Trimmed BROS in Roth ac (Edit: Idea got mispriced after Q2 results. Have monetized mostly the Roth ac side, only because I feel shares bounced too high on the plus side after Q3 results. BROS is certainly a good name to hold, at the right entry price)
  • HIMS plunge - added to Roth ac
  • TRMD nibble in Roth ac
  • Added to YMAG in taxable ac
22

11/15
Another of those ickky-type days with stuff just diving

  • HIMS dive
  • COHR dive
  • NVDA dive
  • LPG dive

Oh well, …

  • NVDY nibble in Roth ac
  • QCOM nibble in taxable ac
    [Edit: GSM recent nibble & GLNG’s price drop have the two swapping places in my Top 10 - GSM in, GLNG out]
23

11/18
Appears to be a better day. That still had me implement some shuffling

  • Closed out tiny NPWR stake
  • Closed out remaining IEP stake
  • On FRO bounce, trimmed the Roth ac stake
  • On drop, added to LULU
  • Another TRMD nibble in Roth ac
  • More LRCX in taxable ac
  • More INSW in taxable ac
24

11/19 - 11/20

  • Initiated LULU in Roth ac
  • LPG still moving lower. Another nibble for taxable ac
  • GSM bounce. Adjust strategy - trimmed higher price shares. Trimmed shares in Roth ac. Then trimmed in taxable ac
  • TGT hints at Q4 weakness and takes a 20% hit. Nibble for me in taxable ac
  • Added to ENTG in Roth ac
  • QCOM & VERI- Ugh!
25

11/21 - 11/22

  • Another TGT nibble
  • CLCO report Q3 results, including major div cut. Price tumbles, I added (could be dead for the rest of 2024 and most of 2025)
  • On bounce, trimmed NVDY in Roth ac.
  • More HIMS in Roth ac
  • On bounce, trimmed GCT
  • Another DLTR nibble in taxable ac
1 Like
26

11/25
Tough decision made over the weekend. Decided to adjust my stance on the longer held FRO shares

  • Trimmed FRO in taxable ac
  • Added to YMAX (Oops! That was supposed to be YMAG)
  • Trimmed FRO in Roth ac
  • Last week, had been thinking of trimming GSM a little more. The initial trim looks good now. Now, just pause.
  • Added to the correct YM … another YMAG bite.
  • With how some Nov pick initiations, or additions to recent purchases, are playing out e.g. LULU, TGT, HIMS, are playing out - am pleased with myself. Small moves, but helps with confidence.
  • Argentina LNG development is a plus for Golar- stock price responded
27

11/26
Brief commentary on shipping sector. I am really shocked at the teardown this sector has endured in Oct-Nov 2024. An individual name in the sector, maybe I can get. But there have to be circumstances. Company flips to a loss. Or indicates it is having problems currently, or in the near term. That could suggest some near term struggles. Has that occurred? The closest to that has been CLCO - which slashed its dividend. ECO also slashed its payout significantly. FRO hasn’t even reported, and it is getting ripped on a cumulative basis. Another whack when it eventually reports this week? Yuck! And why do the ones who have already reported, e.g. INSW, TRMD, ZIM, continue taking hits?

Ok, onto my trades

  • More LULU in taxable ac
  • More NVDY in taxable ac
  • More NVDY in Roth ac
  • More TRMD in taxable ac

Another AI idea showed on my radar - VSH, a supposed supplier to NVDA. VSH shares bounced on news the have a supply deal with NVDA. Even after bounce today, shares are at the lower end of range. Will watch over the next day or two (this week, I guess, with few traders around)

28

11/27
After an earlier tanker missive, some hours of sleep, then looked at more shipping data. I read FRO’s Q3 2024 Earnings Call transcript. FRO mgmt typically give a better picture of the tanker market, and where it is trending. Q4 usually gets an uptick. But, it hasn’t happened yet.

  • China demand is weaker
  • OPEC+ keeps waffling on production. Had originally said 2M additional production would occur. Smaller % increase has occurred.
  • Tanker fleet is getting older.
  • Originally thought earnings adj came from vessel sale. It looks like it was a derivate adj.
  • After a refinancing package, FRO has $500M+ in liquidity after min cash reqts.
    Ok, comment on the earlier missive. After FRO mgmt comment on the tanker sector, today’s FRO sell-off is understandable. Reduced div and less optimism on a usually stronger Q4. If other conventional tanker companies follow in suit, well, that’s the “big dog” effect.

But, true to form, FRO mgmt suggest - maybe the uptick shifts to Q1 :slight_smile:

Ok, my activity

  • Added to NVDA in taxable ac
  • Added to YMAG in taxable ac
  • Added to NVDY in Roth ac
  • Closed out small AMZN stake
  • Added to CAMT in Roth ac

Since my FRO position flipped to negative - added to FRO in taxable ac (Recent FRO share sales in taxable ac were all gains, so no wash transactions)

[Edit: On bounce, trimmed BRK-B ]

29

11/29
Commented on ZIM elsewhere. There was an opportunity to avoid Israeli withholding by selling the ZIM stake today. Position too small to make a significant difference. 12/02 shares are ex-div - will be monitoring ZIM after that. The Q4 payout will likely be larger - then a larger position and an ex-div plan become more important.

Shortened trading day. Still enough time to make a pair of trades

  • FRO is now red. Won’t rush in, But replaced the Roth shares I sold earlier this week at a 16% discount.
  • Added to WU in taxable ac
  • Open to a tech idea. Could not decide - no move
  • Retail? No decision on an idea [Edit: Well, TGT - but, it bounced, so no move]
30

12/02 - 12/03
Final month shake-out

  • Added to UPS stake (taxable ac)
  • Added to ZIM stake (taxable ac)
  • More HIMS (Roth ac)
  • Trimmed AAPL in taxable ac
  • More BROS in Roth ac
  • More TRMD in taxable ac
  • Added to QQQ in Roth ac
  • Closed out QYLD in Roth ac

[Edit: On a quiet FRO news day, an 8.78% price bounce - can that repeat a couple more times? ]

31

12/04 - 12/06
The remainder of Dec week 1

  • Initiated a nibble on VSH (taxable ac)

  • Thought long, thought hard. Reduced CLCO stake by 50%. Decision helped by the fact that CLCO is the only significant shipping stake in a single account. The Roth ac stake had been monetized during the year, thru Sept 2024.

  • Really nice bounce from LULU

  • COHR swaps places with INSW

32

12/09 - 12/11

  • Added to COHR in taxable ac
  • Added to UPS in taxable ac
  • Added to NVDY in Roth ac
  • Added to FLNG in Roth ac
  • Added to VSH in taxable ac
  • Trading likely to be more subdued to end the year.
1 Like
33

12/24
Offline from stock market 10 days.
Just doing a check on the port today.
-Top 10 slightly lower - and damage from shipping is more muted with only two names in the list. The blood letting of the shipping basket continues, and monetizations early and late have caused me to avoid panicky moves. Also,
the moves made by HAFN mgmt wrt buybacks seems to be working.

  • My YieldMax ideas seem to be working
1 Like