Inspired,
I’ll try to attach the Stockchart view that shows the signal. I bet if you change your barchart range to 1-month it will show up on this one.
Hi Lisa,
Thanks for that - now I see…I think Quill typically uses the 2 month chart, but of course, as Arindam says its Chef’s choice!
Charlie
I see it’s still not a true buy signal on barchart 1-month. That’s interesting. Probably not a strong signal if the two don’t agree. It seems like CRWD has been bouncing in a sideways range between about 122 and 140 for a while now. It will be interesting to see if that pattern keeps up.
Charlie,
EVERYTHING about investing or trading is ‘Chef’s Choice’, because each person is unique in his/her means, needs, goals, interests, and opportunities. Furthermore, no matter how many people tell you the path to investing/trading success is this or that, you gotta find your own way.
For sure, borrow what you can. But when you’ve got position on and it isn’t doing well, that mentor isn’t siting beside you to offer advice. There’s only a chart and your own trading plan, which you’re going to follow, or you aren’t, in which case you don’t have a trading plan (or an investment plan) and you might as well be flipping coins or throwing darts to make your decisions.
Seriously, if your executions aren’t mechanically consistent, then there’s no way they can be measured and improved.
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"That is the only problem with … charts is that a big drop or rise is usually a surprise. "
Doc,
Before you make an assertion like that, you should have done some back-testing. Specifically, in what percentage of cases do unforecastable price shocks happen?
In the case ENPH, the tape was clearly and unambiguously saying --for five days in a row-- that the upcoming earnings report was going to “disappoint”. And anyone stupid enough, ignorant enough, arrogant enough to have ignored those repeated warnings deserves every penny of loss they sustained.
For sure, price shocks do happen, and how to manage them is well discussed in the trading literature, which them long ENPH chose to ignore, so sure they were of their fundamentalist-based bet, which wasn’t even very good fundamentalist analysis.
So, they suck at financial statement analysis. They suck at chart reading,. They are totally clueless about proper position sizing, and now they’re whining. Worse, not a one of them will learn the lessons the Market Goddess offered them.
Hi Arindam,
Very true…No, I wasnt trading CRWD…These were bought by my earlier stupid version listening to the Gen Z boys ( thanks to Motley fool!..No thanks!!). Ditto with many other similar stocks.
I am having a very hard time to accept selling the stocks at huge losses.
In fact, I had bought TSLA relatively recently as a long term buy at $200ish or ( I still feel that this will help me out of my mess)…but the last few months and especially the last few weeks price action is hardly looking favorable…Yet, I am not able to sell them and take the loss…With a stock like TSLA, I feel it is very difficult to predict - Love him or hate him, Elon does seem to have something in him …and he may be able to conjure up something which will make the stock go back to $200 in no time…The problem is, till that happens, it could also gyrate from $155 to $100…So, What does one do.
May be I am beyond stupid!
Arindam,
you certainly can’t just start trading off these different ideas posted here. One should look at more than the 2 month simonsez3 or 4. I watch the one day, five day, ten day and one month looking for issues that would make me hold off. Learning a lot here and I love barchart…doc
Arindam,
That 6-month chart definitely provides a different perspective!
Lisa (and Doc as well),
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. “A way of seeing is also a way of not seeing.”
If you want to commit to using charts with daily bars and a 2-month lookback, and some backtesting suggests the gig is viable, then go for it, and don’t let anyone distract you from your own project.
However, it needs to be kept in mind that every stock --just as every investor-- has its own personality, and that many times, maybe lots of times, you’re going to be out of synch with the stock/ETFs you’re currently trying to chart.
OTOH, trying to be everywhere at once is true madness. So pick A method and A chart template and stick with it long enough to learn when it will serve you well and when you should back away and look for another, better opportunity.
3 Likes
Doc,
EHPH had a flat quarter because of the sales and the higher cost of interest being charged to it’s customers in the southern states’ vs the Northeast quadrant.
As they say your spot on. Now, let’s place the mouse on 4/18/23 either on 1 month or 2 months.
What were the rules when you placed the mouse on 4/19/20. Yah!! we were told SELL. Is that correct. Now, if you still want to own ENPH, you will have to wait and wait and wait for the next BUY signal.
Bingo - what did Simon tell you to do. What most traders see is a bargain
and buy to get back to the 225 area.
The black and white you are seeing; I have been plotting on graph paper for 40 years by hand. Then went to computer print outs for the next 20 Plus years.
Any thing above the 20 EMA is considered Trending. (trending is good for lack of a better werd) Any thing below the 20 EMA is considered De-Trending. Usually after the top SELL signal, the stock starts to be heading south below the 20 EMA or De-Trending. When below, it becomes a waiting game for the next BUY signal.
Quill -
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Hi Quill,
when I look at this chart the TSI doesn’t give the confirming sell until the 25th. There is the upside down arc on the 18th but the 19th thru the 21st candles are pretty neutral with the continuing green TSI. On the 24th you see the strong negative candle. It’s too late however for the ENPH hloders ! What exactly do you see in the pattern from your experience that we don’t see? I really see the red dots well on the Heikin Ashi charts, this one not so well…doc
edit item added:
Doc,
I believe the following is almost the same as Simon Sez IV applying to HA Smoothies - Simon Sez IV in review
Let’s follow the singing Dots instead of the Bars.
=
First off, the TSI is just a confirmation saying hay be advised that the TSI is matching the two (2) moving averages. 4/25/23
Second, I execute at the Sell signal regardless of all the noise around 4/19/20
Third, I wait and wait for the next buy signal which was 4/27/23.
The following chart I like to use strips away the Candle Stix covers. Ya know open - high - low - close. Then the next chart will have the Candle stix.
The next choice is to follow the rules for the Dots.
a. BUY on the First GREEN Dot after the Last RED Dot. No waiting.
b. SELL on the First RED Dot after the Last GREEN Dot. No waiting.
= ENPH - Enphase Energy Stock Interactive Chart - Barchart.com
=
And finally, the black and white chart is stripping all of the noise away and trade per the ARCs.
=
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Quill
On the upper chart (first chart), the first red dot is on the 24th. The arc on the 19th is followed by numerous green dots. Sell on the first red dot after the arc - is that correct. Also, when did that dot turn red on the 24th - at the end of the day? After the market closed? No help for the crash on the 25th.
On the middle (second) chart the first red dot is on the 24th. Again, using the one month chart set to daily one wouldn’t get the sell signal until after the market closed I believe.
I can’t look at the third chart and figure out the meaning of the symbols - is that the high low candle? I do see that the candles swing lower starting on the 20th but the TSI becomes a confounding indicator since it is still positive.
Don’t get me wrong, I am now using the SimonSez charts for buying and selling but I am watching the daily, 5 day charts too as they seem to help with reading the 1 month and 2 month for swing trading. Recognition of patterns is key and that comes with experience. I wasn’t in ENPH, but want to study and understand the chart for my own benefit. Thanks for helping but I’m still not seeing what you see on your charts above.
I’m probably a product of your and Arindam’s teachings on these charts as I swing back and forth between time frames. With experience comes knowledge and profit…doc
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Actually Doc the crash was on the 26th. Enphase reported on the 25th after hours and the crash was the next day but you would have had to be out the 25th. But I like the discussion.
Andy
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DOC:
re: ENPH
Today is a classic Head Fake
Yesterday there was a buy signal and then today the price went south.
Options were to have a Trailing Stop loss order
or place a stop loss order 1 penny or a percentage amount below the lowest low (160.61) to protect your trade.
or if you still like ENPH, just hang on for dear life and pray EHPH heads north to where it was in the 220.00 area.
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Quill,
Today’s price action for ENPH isn’t “a classic head fake”, nor was yesterday’s price action. You’re not reading the tape correctly, because you’re not paying attention to what the tape is actually saying.
By your methods --whose variants I can never keep track of-- ENPH established a lookback low --using nearly any time frame you want-- on the 26th, and the low got flagged with a Smiley Face (or a price label if you’re charting at StockCharts). That’s Step One of your method(s): Locate the starting gate. So far, so good.
Then Step Two kicks in, which is to confirm that that day was, in fact, a low.
By how you build charts --with OHLC bars-- and how you interpret them, the price action on the 27th seemed to confirm that the previous day was a tradable starting gate. Bingo! You’d be ready to buy today. However, prices dropped lower today, and now you claim you were head-faked.
NO! Look again at yesterday’s price bar. It wasn’t quite a classic Doji, but it was close enough. What do Dojis typically signify? Buyer-Seller indecision. And given that the direction of the day was ‘Down’, one’s expectation should have been that prices would continue lower today, which is what happened.
In sum, you head-faked yourself --not the tape-- because your methods are crude. You need to learn how to do Candle Pattern Analysis (CPA).
Note: ‘Candle Sticks’ is merely a charting format. ‘Candle Pattern Analysis’ is a method of making sense of the tape, and there are dozens of websites and books that explain how to do it.
Arindam
Thanks Andy,
Great learning experience about the system and about how the trainer perceives things. As I gain knowledge on this system, I like it more and more knowing that there is a risk and to take the sell and buy signals very seriously vs inaction…doc
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I agree Physician you do not want to be caught in a position that is trending against you. What I have been doing is looking for stocks that are in an uptrend and sell a call at the money or buy the stock and keep an eye on it. I want to see it stay close to the 30MA or over it Using Quills Simon Sez 3 chart. The only time I have been caught in a bad trade so far is when I buy a stock in a down trend and try to catch a few points of mean reversal.
Andy
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Andy,
I will sell calls on my holdings if the trend is strong positive and the TSI is flattening out or getting ready to cross into the red. This seems to optimize the return. Also, I sell the closest Friday like for instance today. This minimizes my investment risk to a minimum when one considers the crazy swings the market is prone to sometimes. i actually haven’t bought too many calls lately…doc
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