I cannot express my thanks enough to the many contributors on this excellent board. I’ve always been good with saving money, but never really had a handle on what to do with it once I had anything saved. My Rule Breakers subscription opened my mind to a new way of thinking, but I just wasn’t 100% sold on the hold forever mentality - especially in cases like INVN, when for the prize always is just over the horizon.
This board has an incredible amount of information, and for a relatively new investor like myself, has the potential to be a life-changer. I know current performance cannot keep up, but since the middle of December, I’ve had over 30% return on my whole portfolio. If I can achieve 20% return per year, I will have the ability to retire in the next 10 years, so these numbers mean the world to me. Thanks to everyone for including me on your investing journey! I hope in the future I’ll be able to repay this generosity by helping others as much as I’ve been helped!
Tim
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Thanks to everyone for including me on your investing journey! I hope in the future I’ll be able to repay this generosity by helping others as much as I’ve been helped!
HI Tim, Welcome to the board! Don’t hesitate to post a remark or question anytime.
Saul
I recently re-funded my brokerage account after emptying it for a daughter’s last 2 years of education. Not refilled to where it was, but it is a start. It is invested in some of Saul’s recommendations and it keeps going up whereas my IRA sort of bobs up and down like a cork in the ocean. It takes a little bit of time to read up on the companies and I still have some dry powder so I’ll select another one soon.
By the way, I bailed out of UBNT in my IRA today. That was a longtime holding for me, pre-rule breaker recommendation. Maybe it will resume growth, we’ll see, but in the meantime I’ll take my chances on something else.
KC
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Tim,
You wrote, If I can achieve 20% return per year, I will have the ability to retire in the next 10 years . . ."
I am already retired with a pension, social security and small rental income from a mother-in-law apartment. My wife also has a Chinese pension which covers her mortgage on our home in Guilin and her US health insurance premiums. So current living expenses are fully covered by current income.
But income is fixed (the SS COLA comes nowhere near covering inflation) and expenses continue to rise - that means our lifestyle will diminish or I must find a separate source of funds.
The way I figured it, if I can average 20% per year compounded on my portfolio for 10 years my wife and I will be financially secure to the point that my current sources of income could all go away and we could live very comfortably from a portfolio that would continue to grow even after taking annual draws to support our needs.
Do those numbers look familiar?
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Peter,
That is pretty much the same calculation I’ve done for myself. I work in the pharmacy, which is a lot of stress in exchange for a nice paycheck, and I’m still far from normal retirement age (in my early thirties). But if things progress like I said above, I’ll be able to retire when my oldest is finishing her senior year of high school, and my youngest is getting ready to enter high school. The plan - if it is even possible to make specific plans 10 years ahead - would be to take our family on a summer trip around the world to see the once-in-a-lifetime places that we have only been able to read about.
The fact that ideas like this are very possibly within reach shows what an impact this board can have! It gives me a specific, realistic goal to work towards. I’ve always wanted to do a trip with the family like this, especially before their lives became too busy with jobs, starting their own families, etc. I wish you success on your plan as well, here’s to us both achieving our goals!
Tim
If I can achieve 20% return per year,
That is probably unrealistic. 20% a year may seem doable as long as you are in a long bull market. But all bull markets end eventually and Saul type stocks will suffer badly.
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But all bull markets end eventually and Saul type stocks will suffer badly.
I disagree with you Mauser. I bet Saul’s portfolio has an average PE that is lower than any of the Motley Fool’s managed portfolios. In a market sell off the first thing I would expect to tank are the LinkedIns and Zillows of the world. Banks and shoe stores that are trading at reasonable valuations should fare better.
Saul is always very careful to make sure his companies are actually making money. (Oh right. Solazyme…execption to the rule. But. You get my point.
Jeb
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That is probably unrealistic. 20% a year may seem doable as long as you are in a long bull market. But all bull markets end eventually and Saul type stocks will suffer badly.
Saul type stock - Do you disagree agree with the analysis posted on the stocks, or in the fools newsletters. Make a case for it, that’s more compelling then making a blanket statement. Yes it’s a bull market, in the case of downturn all ships fall, what will make these stocks fall more then others?
The first part of the puzzle is to invest in stocks that are growing, driven by the detailed analysis.
The second part of the puzzle is selling and getting out the wining positions, much harder to do. I’ve followed a couple of posts where Saul has gotten out of positions before the stocks have lost traction. I haven’t yet sold any positions I’ve acquired by following this board, but I’m willing to sell out positions that might loose money or slowing growth, and move them to more advantageous positions. I’m doing this on part of my port.
The other part is on LTBH. My issue with LTBH is, how long to hold on to certain positions which do not get traction for years together, or sometimes are at a loss.
Kris
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They call it a bear market because almost all stocks go down. Including Saul type stocks. Not knocking these stocks, I own several myself.
Saul has posted his results in 2008 but too lazy to look it up. But I do remember it wasn’t good.
The stocks less likely to go down as far are the ones with a stable recession proof business business and paying dividends. " Banks and shoe stores do well"? Were you in the market in 2008 when Citigroup fell to less than $1 a share ?
if you are interested something on stocks that do best in a recession. a link is below. In the he next next recession it will be somewhat different but will rhyme , or maybe faintly echo
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/corporate_finance/mapping_d…
2001 consumer discretionary (shoe stores like Sketchers etc) down 42%, materials down 15%
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I am not going to bother making cases pro or con about something so obvious as a bear market. Look it up yourself on Google.
And please read the post. I didn’t say they would suffer" worse" though many probably will. I said they will suffer “badly”.
FWIW I own several of the stocks on this board. And owned similar type stocks for similar reasons long before this board appeared… I have found the board very useful , pros and cons, and some stocks brought up that I would have missed. And Saul, a very smart guy, has certainly influenced my thinking . But it is delusional to think these stocks will not be hurt in the next bear market
.
I’m willing to sell out positions that might loose money or slowing growth The trick is knowing this before everybody else does, and the price has already fallen. Saul is particularly good at picking up early warning signs
one of my favorite quotes on new bull markets( thanks to captaincc)
“A rising tide lifts all ships. Except the ones that have already sunk”
Similarly a falling tide lowers all the ships, except the ones that are sinking, and they get lowered even faster.
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Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad you are bringing a word of caution.
It’s easy to be in a bear market, see your gains accumulate and be immune to the possibility of a lot of these gains evaporating overnight.
I’ve been through the 2000 bubble to see all my paper gains go up in smoke, only to loose interest in the market for some time. So the 2008 wasn’t that bad for me. Took Buffet’s advice after the downturn: “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”
I just sold off AIG and C after buying them at the bottom and forgetting about them.
I’m just fearful of history repeating itself, when I’ve just rediscovered my interest in investing!
So keep the critiques coming, and thanks for the link.
2001 consumer discretionary (shoe stores like Sketchers etc) down 42%, materials down 15%
My point is that in a market low PE stocks will go down less than the high flyers. So yes, SKX, a Saul-type stock, trading at a 20-something will likely go down less than Under Armor trading at 80-something.
Valuation does matter. I think we are saying the same thing in a different way.
Jeb
You can see all my holdings here: http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFJebbo/info.aspx
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