target prices

Sometime in Jan or maybe early Feb I did my public-school-educated napkin math and came up with these prices:

NET 61
TTD 40
GLBE 24 (hahahahahahaah) #sad
NVDA 100
DDOG 67
ZI 27
UPST 88 (hahahahahahahah) #alsosad

There were others, but I considered the above to all be leaders in their respective market/industry.
For example, MNDY, ZS, S, DOCN, BILL, and even SNOW aren’t necessarily obvious leaders, as they all have mammoth competition. DDOG has competition, but is spanking ESTC and NEWR, etc… AMD is always inferior to NVDA. UPST has competition, but their niche/approach appears disruptive and unique. NET crushing FSLY.

Security stocks all compete for security dollars against tons of point solutions and titans like MSFT. DOCN is an smb cloud. MNDY has ASAN and neither is mission-critical.

Anyway…you get the idea. Focused on growth with leadership, and those were some obvious suspects.
I would now also include AMZN and GOOG, if they implode further. Hard to imagine them doubling/tripling from their current size easily, so I tend to gravitate towards smaller mkt caps ideally.

My mis-steps so far, since end of March when I was flat, is that I didn’t wait for my lows in GLBE and UPST, and paid for it…got in too early. The other factor is that, of course, the two stocks I chose hit/surpassed their targets before the others. So either they are at bottoms, or when the others finally catch up, they will fall further still in sympathy. Argh.

I went and looked at Saul’s first several posts on his board, started in 2014. It was humbling to re-read his performance from 2008-2012…basically flat. Think about that. Who is/was prepared for such a mouth-punch of 2022 that it may take until 2025 to become whole again?

2020 spoiled and warped too many expectations, imo. Que sera sera.

Choose wisely and if you catch the bear market rallies, maybe think about pocketing some of those gains. A lot of charts on twitter showing the greatest market 1-day gains are all Bear rallies. Meaning it will/could retrace and still reach new lows.

I have no idea what happens next, but neither a drop or pop will surprise me. PTLO is imploding and guess what price I had written for them months ago? $18. Son of a…

Sometimes, listen to your gut when you are calm and forward-looking. Careful not to panic. There will be a 2023 and 2024 and it sucks to take a step back, but it is worse to step off the roof.

Dreamer

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Take a look at NET in AH right now, and then look at my target price.

I mentioned somewhere buried in previous posts a BILL target of 162…that is prescient also.

Just saying…my napkin math is strong.

Dreamer

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entered that too soon. Meant to say BILL went way under my target price just now, as did UPST and GLBE.

Others still to go:

DDOG was orig 67 and I later raised to $100-115. I better hope for a quick flip on my current trade.
SNOW 98.99
S 24.99
ZI 27
MNDY 114
zs 119

my two faves are:

ttd 40 (or less)
nvda 100

fingers crossed for more POMO!

Dreamer

my two faves are:

ttd 40 (or less)
nvda 100

fingers crossed for more POMO!


TTD at 48. The 52 wk low of 46 is within reach. ER next week. Gonna roll dice and hope for post-ER crash on top of this, and I may even be buying in the 30s. Doubt it, but nice to have goals.

NVDA 185 (was 179 earlier) has a ways to go, and not sure it gets there. That’s ok. Can’t win em all.

PTLO is carrying the day for me, otherwise I would have thought my Saul stocks were up, but they are all creeping right back down.

Unless we scream lower from here, probably standing pat for now.

Dreamer

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New target prices for fans of POMO or (FoPOMO’s).

S $17.50
SNOW still $99
NVDA still $100
DDOG $70 (that will hurt)
NET $40 (and that will hurt, too)

Need to redo these, but off top of my head:

TTD $32.50
GLBE $17

Curious on, but not sure on:

SPG
UPST
BILL
ZS
PLTR
ZI

Dreamer

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