Sometime in Jan or maybe early Feb I did my public-school-educated napkin math and came up with these prices:
GLBE 24 (hahahahahahaah) #sad
UPST 88 (hahahahahahahah) #alsosad
There were others, but I considered the above to all be leaders in their respective market/industry.
For example, MNDY, ZS, S, DOCN, BILL, and even SNOW aren’t necessarily obvious leaders, as they all have mammoth competition. DDOG has competition, but is spanking ESTC and NEWR, etc… AMD is always inferior to NVDA. UPST has competition, but their niche/approach appears disruptive and unique. NET crushing FSLY.
Security stocks all compete for security dollars against tons of point solutions and titans like MSFT. DOCN is an smb cloud. MNDY has ASAN and neither is mission-critical.
Anyway…you get the idea. Focused on growth with leadership, and those were some obvious suspects.
I would now also include AMZN and GOOG, if they implode further. Hard to imagine them doubling/tripling from their current size easily, so I tend to gravitate towards smaller mkt caps ideally.
My mis-steps so far, since end of March when I was flat, is that I didn’t wait for my lows in GLBE and UPST, and paid for it…got in too early. The other factor is that, of course, the two stocks I chose hit/surpassed their targets before the others. So either they are at bottoms, or when the others finally catch up, they will fall further still in sympathy. Argh.
I went and looked at Saul’s first several posts on his board, started in 2014. It was humbling to re-read his performance from 2008-2012…basically flat. Think about that. Who is/was prepared for such a mouth-punch of 2022 that it may take until 2025 to become whole again?
2020 spoiled and warped too many expectations, imo. Que sera sera.
Choose wisely and if you catch the bear market rallies, maybe think about pocketing some of those gains. A lot of charts on twitter showing the greatest market 1-day gains are all Bear rallies. Meaning it will/could retrace and still reach new lows.
I have no idea what happens next, but neither a drop or pop will surprise me. PTLO is imploding and guess what price I had written for them months ago? $18. Son of a…
Sometimes, listen to your gut when you are calm and forward-looking. Careful not to panic. There will be a 2023 and 2024 and it sucks to take a step back, but it is worse to step off the roof.