I sold too early.

Shouldn’t beat myself up for taking profits.

But I sold too early.

Hindsight makes everything obvious, duh.

But, yeah, I sold too early.

I captured about 62% of the upside I could have captured if I waited to sell now, closer to the bell.


(Captain Kirk yelling at Khan voice)
(end Captain Kirk yelling at Khan voice)

Dreamer <— could have been at new ATH

I sold too early.

Dreamer, you sold too early. :slight_smile:

AH I sold the SNOW I bought pre-market. I don’t trust these gains. OTH, I took that money and put it into UPST, so major increase there today. Good news on the auto finance.

MDB knocked it out of the park. Up 8% on the day and, I think, another +12% AH. I have some of that, but of course a reduced position. When you are down so much from ATH, and then have cash, the $ gains are not like the good old days. That is why it is such a hard road to travel. I’ll be very fortunate to be at ATH in even 2 good years.

Also sold the LNG, pocketed those gains, such as they were.



O.k., Dreamer, don’t BUY too early.

Besides TFIP, I have another weapon. It is called sleep. I’ve placed lowball orders for UPST, SNOW and MNDY. Now I hit the sack and in the morning stroll to the computer and see if I caught anything. No stress. No beating my self up for acting too soon or waiting too long. No guilt (well, maybe a little, but life happens…)

Guard the fort. zzzzzzzzzzz



Glanced at DW’s IRA and saw ASAN down 24%. Put in an order for down 34%.


I just think ASAN and MNDY are vaporware and not close to mission critical.
Could see them whipsawing slowly lower and lower until we forget about them and look up a couple years later and see they are still about (or lower) than when we last looked.

Metrics can fool people. Do you NEED Zoom now? Not if you have MSFT office and Teams. You never actually needed Zoom in that case. Pandemic.

Do you need to pay $4 for delivery fee on a burrito? Think their prices go up or down with rise in gas prices? No thanks.

Do I need to buy masks off Etsy? Nope. How about use a Peloton? Nope.

It is a tougher question to answer: what is really mission-critical and/or has staying power. And then of those, which has best growth prospects. Of those, which isn’t already over-valued. Etc…

PTLO had blah ER, which I hope will drive price back down, along with stock lockup expiration (April).

If TTD would just drop to $20, I could go all-in and go to sleep on the year. Oh well. Investing is hard.



Game plan for Friday as we are 1-1/2 hours from open:

Dow futures up about 400 points because Putin says there is “progress” in the talks. I don’t buy it. Not sure what he would be referring to. Zelenski signaled willing for neutrality 2 days ago so did Putin just now get the message? Unless, of course, the Russians are steadily losing equipment as they slowly move forward. As armchair general, the Russians are trying to encircle Kiev. They are 10 miles out and it would not be a geometric circle. They would have a minimum of 40 miles of exposed flank plus the roads in from Russia. They can’t possibly have the infantry to secure a 40 mile perimeter. The Ukrainians would have freedom of movement and the Russians stationary. Russians ought to be losing tanks and APC’s by the 100’s every day by small unit hit and run by Ukrainians. Ukrainians need to get those units our of Kiev and into the countryside. So maybe Putin may want to take a leaf from U.S. playbook and claim victory and go home, if he can get neutrality and a bit of the eastern provinces. So maybe. But that’s a good number of ifs. So I am skeptical that the news stays positive (for negotiated deal) over the weekend. So:

DW bought some ASAN Thursday. I would take whatever profit that might present itself today.

Ditto on SNOW and UPST. And POMO, certainly do not intend to chase.

As to the mission criticality of ASAN and MNDY, I disagree somewhat. I don’t think that either product is so dominant that it is mission critical in itself. But I do think that that class of software is mission critical. I think that ASAN has a narrow focus of application. MNDY will make itself mission critical where it is adopted because the business will become built around it. Just my opinion. DOCN will be even more imbedded but I don’t think their developer oriented marketing will generate enough lands. But I have no background for that insight, just my feeling. Just a retired old far* on the internet.


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I think this is a lot more likely to be 2000-2001 than a quick V-shaped drop and pop like Dec 2018 or March 2020. But I also don’t think it will be as long of a grind down as the dotcom boom era. News/info/algos/connectivity moves too fast today, and everything gets compressed it seems.

But everyone wanting this to be a quick rotation dip has been continually disappointed for a couple months now. Russia is a distraction but creates headlines and now has real impact on inflation and possible recessionary vibes in Europe that could trickle our way. Fed screwed up with inaction. The stimulus in 2020 made sense. The 2021 stimulus might not have - all this liquidity in the market made everyone a “wen lambo” bro that always YOLO’d and expected moon. If you understood that last sentence, it kind of is a commentary on how sad the past 2 years has been in terms of warping investors/traders expectations.

Anyhoo…I digress.

I really enjoyed the 1883 show.

Someone on the show gets shot with an arrow.
Lives and seems normal. But arrow was dipped in manure and nicked the liver.
Dead person walking/riding, so to speak. Eventually they succumb, but kind of had their version of a dead cat bounce first.

DOCU now at pre-covid.
All these companies are getting their valuations re-rated. DOCU is/was successful. So was ROKU. So was Zoom. The idea that hyper-growth deserves such extreme multiples doesn’t seem to hold up long-term. No one ever hyper-growths forever, and once that ends, they dramatically collapse in valuation. So were they ever really worth the earlier multiples?

My fantasy prices:
TTD $40’s
DDOG $60’s (but I would likely jump in earlier than that)
Net $61
Bill $162
NVDA $100
UPST $88
SNOW $99

Even my favorites have further lows that I can easily visualize:
GLBE $24-25
PTLO $18-19

Will any of those hit? Dunno. If this is just a re-do of May 2021, then they won’t.
If this is something more meaningful, like Dec 2018 or 2000/2001 or 2008/2009, then yeah they likely will.

I have no idea. Just a guy on the internet.


POMO alert
POMO alert



My fantasy prices:

UPST $88
SNOW $99

My “trophy purchase” of UPST, just a little while ago, was $79-ish.

I did not get my UPST filled in regular hoursFriday. Close, but no cigar. But I bought after hours at $100 and various odd centavos. Note that my port set a new post-ATH low Friday. (post-ATH low…everyone follow that? P-ATH.L).

Therefore I gave short, but very serious, thought regarding ‘what if’ UPST revisits my trophy price. Can I hold on through that? Wow!

Well, I wanted back in at, or below, the psychological $103 where I last panic-sold. Careful what you wish for… (speaking to myself, not to Dreamer–cash is King, you rascal).

I am 24% UPST and 30% cash. My once-upon-a-time target was 32% UPST. Maybe I put in a $90 bid, good for 60 days, and go POMO.