After craftily timing the market (Remarkably guided by my almost patented deep dive laborious 15 minute research efforts which definitively concluded with a Five Star Lock projection of a slight pullback in NVDA from some all time highs - I wisely and with specific intent, began the roster re-build process today with a half position in the company.
Its my intention to either build the roster around NVDA as a centerpiece Center - or not to, dependent to a large degree on a lot
of ancillary semi-related factors and other stuff.
Back to Fuzzy Wuzzy. As you’ll doubtlessly recall. Fuzzy Wuzzy was a bear who had no hair. At least thats the modern day version of the story…right? And this specific story/example relates almost entirely to the evilityy of Market Timing. You can see that can’t you? And for those of you struggling a bit with this here is a picture of a bear:
BUT…we know that Fuzzy Wuzzy wasn’t fuzzy; which, I read as having no hair. And it took some time to figure all this out…but thanks to perseverance and the internet here is a picture of a hairless bear:
Moreover - there is a story about a bear named Orgis who wakes up to find that he/she has lost all his/her hair. If you are a bear who hasn’t gulped down enough salmon or feasted on seals or enough whale blubber that would be a very frightening situation - what with winter approaching and all. So…
It appears to me that Fuzzy Wuzzy might have actually been Orgis. See how all this fits now? So - with that background we can sum up and explore what all that has to do with Market Timing - which, as we all fully know, you shouldn’t never ever, ever never do. But…
The question is: was I really timing the market - or- simply reacting to specific and pinpoint data gleaned from copious and grueling research? And further - is there a difference? I could add that If I had somehow mucked it all up and miraculously lost that bet it would most certainly be viewed as timing the market. Undeniably and comprehensively. On this I can steadfastly agree. Because - and this is almost always true: you just don’t know what you don’t know which is the antithesis of fully knowing what you do know. Which is exactly what I am saying here. Completely.
And unlike Fuzzy Wuzzy my bear speculation/projection on NVDA (and several others by the way) wound up actually having hair. Sort of.
Some of the cronies are spending time over on Mechanical Investing forum studying “Simon Sez”.
It is software or technique to swing trade. Reminds me a little of your trading blocks. A trader named Quillpen is helping them out. He is very excited about how to gain by swing trading. He currently has examples he is using to teach his 10-year-old grandkid. Well, sounds like something I could understand!
Two days in the red, sell. Two days in the green, buy. Or something like that haha.
“Simon Sez”, “StockCharts”, and “BarCharts” are buzzwords being thrown around.
There are (In my entirely amateur opinion) two complete truths in investing: 1) No ‘system’ works all consistently all the time. Look at it this way: The Big Dogs have spent billions on algorithms pursuing the ultimate Golden Goose of market systems. If they have found it they are keeping it close to the vest. 2) There is very little new or original in market trading since the stock market began way back when. In other simpler words - anything that someone could have ever thunk up - has pretty much been thunk up and tried.
Note: I am certainly no guru - in fact, I post what I post to display exactly that fact.
Now…none of what I just stated means that Quillpen is wrong or that what he is focused on doesn’t work. Time will tell - moreover, if his ‘system’ stands the test of time then we all might be happily tagging along.
Having said all that - I tend to think that in so far as the Growth investing religion… that Saul has nailed it: focus on a concentrated portfolio of high growth companies and maintain that focus until the story and/or the numbers change. Still not a perfect system nor does it work relentlessly nor rock solid dependably and depends upon one’s ability to ‘pick’ the right companies and reasonably project growth potential into portfolio allocation.
Now take Trading Blocks. Folks have been using Trading Blocks, albeit with different names or without second thoughts, for as long as investing has been employed to make money in the market. I just give it a specific name and do it consistently. For me it works and if I showed folks all the complete data from the entire 2-3 years I have been engaged in it they would be, at the same time, both skeptical and potentially convinced. But it does take time, work and perhaps way to much ongoing attention and awareness along with perhaps at least semi decent instinct coupled with the funds and courage to systematically pull the trigger while not being greedy on the sell side.
All of which is just my humble and flawed amateur opinion.
Quillpen has been around the Fool for years, hawking his theories incessantly. I know of at least three boards that banned him for being so distracting. He reminds me quite a bit of a roaring kitty with less finesse.
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I do remember him from my Mongoose days when he popped up out of no where and continuously posted chart after chart to highlight his strategy. Very annoying. However, the folks that eventually find the gold are the ones that are out in the boonies wandering from place to place, putting in the work with picks and shovels, building sluice boxes, High Banking and unabashedly blowing things up. Who knows when someone who seems quite the crackpot/charlatan at times will stumble across something significant.
Now…whether QPen is a traveling snake oil salesman or merely a well meaning person who needs and craves attention has likely been decided long, long ago by more tenured Fools - albeit, not so much by the newer more recently graduated/crop of Fools or those investors less battle tested.
While I prefer that he not infest this particular sanctuary - I hope he and anyone so attuned find the motherlode - or something like that.
I think he means well and is trying his best to be helpful. I say kudos to anyone who puts themselves out there to teach anybody anything. For some it is hard to banter there thoughts with others in a public forum. But everyone should realize that not everything should be taken as gospel.
