The Sure - But Will it Hold - Just a Few Days Left - Report

[Champico33]

With only 7 days or so left in May, the portfolio is having one of its best months in a very long time. Without getting really down to it with a hawk eyed level of precise precision, the portfolio is up somewhere around +20%. Could be a little more - could be a little less. The real question of course is simply - will it hold? Dunno - but its been like old fun times of the Bull run of yesteryear. Sorta.

So…where does the roster stand? Well first, there have been three player cuts over the last couple of days:

The Pro NET folks convinced me to re-open a position in NET - and so I did : at $49.16 on the 15th; Which, after reading several articles shouting BEWARE The AI HYPE, I sold it (alas) today at the close for $57.84. Short 4 day profit of +17.5%.

Also today I sold out of TSLA: bought also on the 15th for $167.32 and sold today at $179.91 for a short term gain of +7.4%.

Lastly, subsequent to the UPST ER, I read a post by Saul questioning the original abandonment sell of UPST. Lots of comments and responses - and, being the lemming I am - I then opened a marginal sized position at $17.10 on May 15 also. I was prepared to cut and run if worse came to worse but then the dang thing took off. Long story short, I actually sold it yesterday during AHs trading in several lumps for an average price of $24.70. Short term gain was a couple of days and +44%.

Have no idea why I just suddenly decided to sell all three - and given a decent enough retreat intend to buy back two of them. The problem being, of course, that the market has to cooperate - and, my history of having a hair trigger is that a lot of times the stocks I tend to sell continue upward for a bit; which, really doesn’t matter all that much when I am maintaining core positions. But in these three instances - I have sold out completely. So I’ll guess I’ll see if I get another opportunity.

Here is where the Portfolio roster currently is:

A) STARTERS

MNDY
GLBE
S
CRWD

B) The Bench

BILL
TTD
IOT
ENPH

And thats that.

Today Bert came out with renewed admiration for S and I started to add - well to S and to GLBE as well. But - GLBE has made a nice strong run into its ER this coming Monday so I thought I would leave well enough alone.

So the team is jolly fat with a high percentage of cash now with the usual suspects on deck if things fall off a bit.

I have several TBs pending all hanging around the +5-8% range that I should pull the trigger on - but, I just haven’t. We’ll see how it goes in the next 7 days or so.

All the Best,

[VENUMADI]

Hi champ,

Small question, I wonder what is the outcome of all earning reviews you posted in another thread. Are you going to filter out and buy small positions whichever performed well or it’s just for understanding market sentiment?

Any stocks you shortlisted to add into watchlist to add back to portfolio for next uptrend?

My short list basing on earnings reactions and holded all gains after initial up…
DLO
NU - given back all pop and reached back to pop
TOST - given back all pop and reached back to pop
PLTR - (surprisingly it hold all gains and up lot like upstart… is it squeeze or fundamental improved )
RNG - given back all pop and reached back to pop
TTWO
CFLT - doing well
SHOP - it became expensive for the growth
MELI
SMCI
CELH - holding pop
MGNi - holding pop

U - it performed poorly after initial up … so lot of doubts … but hope

Thanks
Venu M

[Champico33]

Hi V:

Here are a couple of rock solid advice and permanently semi rigid rules that are investing foundational pillars of wisdom that I sometimes and mostly attempt to go by:

From Saul: Follow the Numbers

From Bear: Buy/Focus the Best Companies
…

I think I have that right with apologies to both if I have somehow managed to mangle their entirely logical and experienced generated investing acumen and key thoughts. Thereafter, since I am devoid of Investing “It” I follow a large number of people and services, some of which, do in fact have investing “It”.

Take Rule Breakers for example: I have been a Rule Breakers member for what seems like my entire investing career - such as it might be called; and, once upon a time, that much acclaimed service certainly had Investing “It”. That is, until David retired. In my ever so humble opinion it has lost a step or two - maybe and entire yard, since that fateful day.

So…you might be asking yourself - or perhaps not, what all that has to do with the questions you asked. The answer of which is wrapped up in a story Abraham Lincoln once told about two of his cabinet members that were constantly at each others throat…to wit:

Abraham:

I once knew two neighbors who each had a dog. Every day the dogs would race up and down the fence line growling and barking at each other eager to get at each other. Well…one day they both arrived at the same time at a hole in the fence that either could get through to the other side. They both stopped growling and barking for a moment and just looked at one another for a long moment - then, they both bolted away and continued racing up and down the fence line growing and barking at one another.

I do a lot of running up and down the company fence lines barking and growling at stocks - but by chance, if I arrive at an entry hole in the fence - I then have to take two courses of action:

1. I have to ‘prove’ the numbers and measure them against the norms of other companies I have interest in.

If they pass the test then:

2. I then have to think, study and further ponder on whether the company is a flash in the pan “Fools Gold” or built for the ages or at least a month or so. The key “Tell” of which - is to discover the companies secrets. Each and every company has them and the solution to that particular segment of the process delineates whether they remain of interest. For example - take a company on your list: DLO.

DLO was the victim of one of those spurious short attacks back late last year: it has yet to be recovered. Now one might say well thats not a secret - and they would be right per se; however, as an investor, if one has just stumbled across the company and is impressed by the really healthy Revenue Growth and does not go back in history - then they are perhaps investing without a full understanding of the company position.

At any rate - investing is hard and each company has its very own secret or secrets and it’s your job as an investor to sniff them out and evaluate them. For example, your list also contains RNG - can you tell yourself what RNG’s secret is - remembering that some secrets hide in plain site and camouflage themselves poorly.

And that is exactly why I employ so many subscription services and follow so many free sites along with a number of really smart folks on the Fool. Because - the last test is simply this: If no-one has found, mentioned, invested in this wonderful, miraculous, once in a lifetime investment of a company that I have stumbled upon…why?

So to answer your question: I actually dislike and am completely bored by investing. And that is why I treat it like a game which allows me to drift in and out of investments and especially Scout Team level contracts without some Day Trading stigma which seems to handicap LTBH folks - such as that thesis might work.

You have put together what appears to be a nice list of companies you are watching with several really nice and seemingly great potential players; but, with only one current All American: SMCI. Along with 5 solid All-Stars.

Well done!

Sorry for the lengthy round table sort of reply but I haven’t had breakfast and am just waking up.

All the Best,

[VENUMADI]

HI Champico33,

thanks for taking time to reply and answer my question.

With your trading strategy I found the pattern that really helping me improve trading results little bit. like “adding cold water to hot water”.

Your starters &bench raise or fall around 5 to 6% with given bad or good day.(sault&bear etc)
your scout team level positions fall around 8 to 10% with bad or good day. ex:(cflt, upst, smci, u,pltr)

when sentiment is bad and over sold occurs scout team falls more than the your starter &bench positions.

You buy scout team positions only when over sold occurs at and wait for a week once sentiment improves they raise faster than starter positions and you move all the money to starter positions.

now sentiment over bought and you have all the money in starter positions. if market correction starts then starters fall less and scout team fall more.

repeat earlier step again and again until this side way or bear market over.

here key is we should have confidence in company’s to buy such bearish/oversold positions. so you tracking all these company’s making sure you add only strong company’s supported by numbers.

thanks,
venu M

[Champico33]

Hi V:

Yes - something like that.

The issue is never the opportunity. The opportunity is always there somewhere or the other. The issue is the confidence and the courage to pull the trigger - understanding that if you are wrong with carefully vetted High Confidence companies - that they will eventually come right back. The willingness to accept and believe that the market is in a sort of perpetual rhythmic dance with itself helps as well. Sort of like hunting rabbits.

When I was a kid - somewhere around 10-12 my uncle bought me a double barrel 4/10 - was my pride and joy for years. He taught me how to take care of it and how to shoot with it. He then took me rabbit hunting over in Arkansas. I was a terrible shot: rabbits have tricky sprinting tendencies interspersed with hops and jumps of varying degrees. He taught me that once you “jump” a rabbit - just be patient: it will just circle around and come right back to the same location. And surprisingly they mostly do. Same thing with most stocks in normal day-to-day trading.

So in general you are absolutely spot on. There is one other factor that is the compelling reason I spend so much time running back and forth over the numbers ad infinitum - instinct. Updating what I think I know over and over and over again weekly Instinct is like playing defense in football: when the defense instincts are right about what play is coming - then they dominate; however, when their instincts are wrong they can get burned for big yards of turf. You want to be good as well as “lucky” at something…well, people seem to get luckier and it gets easier for them the more they work at something. But - they have to have a plan - a general strategy which they can tweak as their experience and learning curves grow.

Consider the recent gains in Rambus with its +20% pop over the last few trading days. The company popped up on my radar a couple of days before it went BOOM. But since I am not “in” RMBS and since that particular instinct couldn’t be verified with any reasonable experience, I passed. So - I had conflicting instincts: I KNEW Rambus was gong to pop - but I didn’t have enough knowledge or confidence in it to pull the trigger. It’s outside the the orbit of companies I follow. NO guts - No glory - so to speak.

Now having said all that - please don’t be mislead: I am an entirely and somewhat bumbling amateur investor and I have a multitude of investing scars, wounds, and humiliations gathered along the way to prove it. So - I stick pretty close to an offense that works for me. And truth be told - I can’t really explain it as well as you just did - it just works. But It might not work for anyone else for a wide variety of reasons the least of which might be inattention or poor instincts.

All the Best,