The Ukraine War

I didn’t argue not to put any resistance for Putin.

  • My argument is, the first responder in these situations should be EU.
  • The strategic opportunity to bleed Russia is achieved sometime back.
  • Failing to enter into peace talks about a year ago, squandered the strategic gains made, and allowed Russia to build new coalition.
  • The endless wars are bleeding US resources and serve no purposes
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We should end this war by

helping Ukraine to take back all of its non-Donbas territory (including Crimea)
do this mostly by backing the EU/NATO nations who are eager to help Ukraine with material and their own presence along the borders

Poland,
the Baltics,
Finland/Sweden,
Romania)

but also by providing the more powerful weapons that matter.

Russia is now extremely overextended militarily, weak economically and geopolitcially, and Putin’s offensive (in all senses) regime is deadly and vulnerable. Knocking Putin out of power through the failure of his catastrophic war could produce a radical shift in future costs of our massive military, and that would be well worth it all by itself, never mind the simple wisdom of creating a world system that punishes blatant aggression.

d fb

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Close your eyes and travel little bit back. After the cold war, US achieved this. So why we are here? The problem is not only Putin and you have a serious problem within this country. Now you open eyes to that problem…

Problem is, Putin has nukes. Have you noticed how NK has been shooting off a lot of missiles lately? Having been supplying Russia with ammo for a couple years, some 6M rounds of artillery ammo alone, NK’s conventional cupboard is probably near empty. NK could be overrun by SK, except that NK could turn Seoul into a chunk of glass in a few minutes, and is running the missile tests to remind everyone of that.

Steve

Russia gate II emerges.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/29/victoria_nuland_elon_musk_donald_trump_vladimir_putin_triumvirate_spreading_kremlin_propaganda.html

Victoria Nuland: “He’s At It Again!” Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin “Triumvirate” Spreading Kremlin Propaganda

Nuland was right that the government warned about the same thing in 2020, and that social media companies “worked” with the government to address what they said was pernicious meddling. But she fails to mention (not surprisingly) that beginning in 2017 government agencies including the FBI, DHS, intel community, and yes, State Department, put these companies under tremendous pressure to “acknowledge” the meddling in 2016, forcing untold posts and accounts to be deleted and millions of dollars spent fo “due diligence” in monitoring posts and activity through the 2020 election. This was all in the Twitter files.

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Please no matter how emotional you put it this is not even a secondary issue in our politics.

It is very short-sighted to think Putin stops.

Odds are Trump insists that the Europeans fully pay for US military equipment. That the war will continue with only the EU paying. Trump won’t insist on negotiations in the long run and the war does not end. He might suggest negotiations but he will prefer we simply get paid.

For now the Europeans are not producing enough of the equipment so it is necessary to buy much of it from the US or SK.

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You think Putin is coming after US? That is what living in delusional world means.

I have no idea what Trump will do. But the war is coming to an end, once US stop the aid. The aid spigot is coming to an end. Biden rushing the aid clearly shows that Trump may very well shut it down.

It is bone-headed move of Biden to do rush the aid now. Democrats and Biden are going to spend what little political capital they have not on democratic priority, but sending aid to Ukraine. :angry: :angry: :face_holding_back_tears: :face_holding_back_tears:

Let us be clear so far US has spent over $100 B and you think people don’t care?

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Is it really bone-headed? I’m not sure what “democratic priority” is, but at this point there is virtually no political capital to be worried about. That’s for the next cycle in 2 and 4 years from now when the average citizen has forgotten or does not care what a president did in his final 75 days. Political capital will be saved and stored for the next pols, not the short-lived current ones.

Pete

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Trump will end this dumb war. Americans don’t support it. No NATO membership to Ukraine.

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They still control white house, senate and republicans have a very divided house that is not going to agree on anything between themselves. There is budget, CR, and debt limit etc. There is a lot Democrats can force. Otherwise Trump will be taking over a government that is shutdown.

Precisely how Obama thought and didn’t fight for that one SCOTUS position. We can wipe the floor and Hillary will appoint even more liberal judges… perish such thoughts. Fight like every day is your last…

You have zero clue.

The EU has been close to equally footing the bill for the war.

Europe is richer than Russia and can finance the entire war.

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That’s my point. Remind me why you were arguing that US tax payers has to finance this war?

When did I argue the US has to finance it.

I support tariffs as well.

I am saying Trump could care less if the war ends. He wants the US contractors to get paid.

For a guy who prides himself on investing with complex means you are letting me down in your readings of Trump and the situations at hand.

That is the goal. To accomplish that the president will have to authorize a massive lend-lease program to fund the Ukraine defense. That telegraphs to Putin that this world can go on for years, if the Ukrainians can find the manpower. That would likely bring Putin to the negotiation table to end the war.

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President-elect Donald J. Trump spoke on Wednesday with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and during the call handed the phone to Elon Musk, the increasingly influential billionaire who has played a key role in providing communications capability to Ukraine in its war with Russia, a person familiar with the discussion said.

It is not clear whether the three men touched on any change in U.S. policy toward Ukraine in the wake of Mr. Trump’s election.

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DB2

That’s a lot of flagged posts, though I can understand why.

Come on over to shrewdm.com and join then US Policy message board if you feel like free-wheeling political discussion. Plenty of posters from both right, left and middle.

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Interesting update from ISW today (dated yesterday)

Russian forces reportedly lost almost 200 tanks, over 650 armored vehicles, and suffered an estimated 80,000 casualties in taking roughly 1,500 square kilometers during a period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September and October 2024.

This is an roughly double the size of New York City. The report goes onto say:

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated on October 31 that Russian forces are suffering roughly 1,200 casualties per day, or about 36,000 casualties per month, and ISW has recently observed indications that the Russian military has been struggling to recruit enough soldiers to replace its frontline losses.[8] Russian President Vladimir Putin notably acknowledged Russia’s ongoing labor shortages and dependence on migrants to meet these labor shortages during his November 7 Valdai Club address, and ISW noted that Russia also depends on coercing migrants to join the Russian military to meet its manpower requirements.

I checked the Deep State map today, and there has been essentially no progress in the Pokrovsk direction since my last update.

I get a kick out you guys who think we can end this war if we just go before Putin and grovel. Putin started this war back in 2014 and it will end when 1) he is satisfied with the outcome or 2) he can’t fight anymore.

Putin has been fighting wars of expansion nearly his entire time in office. He has made reconstituting the Russia empire a key part of his brand. He claims the Ukraine rightfully belongs to Russia and has no right exist as an independent state.

So why exactly why do you think he change his mind if we simply bend the knee before him and beg him for mercy?

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Plenty of Russian casualty & equipment loss at the link. Ukrainian casualty & equipment loss???
Ukraine also has difficulty with manpower plus it has a desertion problem as do the Russians.

The question is which military will break first? I believe Ukraine will break first.

The problem for Russia is that even if Ukraine organized military resistance collapses. The occupation of Ukraine will be untenable due to Ukrainian guerrilla resistence. It will be very similar to its Afghanistan foreign adventure. Never ending conflict.
Thus I cannot foresee further Russian westward expansion into NATO. The exception is the nonaligned Moldava. The state of the Russian military does not have the capability of taking on NATO. And Russian demographics mean they never will have the strength to go further west. And this adventure is costing Russia a BIG bundle of rubles also.
In fact, this might be in the strategic interest of the US. A continuing sapping of Russian strength via US covert supply of munitions to Ukrainian guerillas.

The only unknown factor is just how many N Korean troops is Kim Jung Un willing to expend?

Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains.

In addition to recruitment problems, Ukraine is suffering from high casualties, low morale, and now desertion. Russia has also sustained massive losses, but it is a much larger country and has yet to fully mobilize due to public pressures against a draft.