… inflation and recession.
https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/we-are-not-in-a-reces…
We are not in a recession.
Consumers are spending. Businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is low. That doesn’t mean everything is good. Inflation is high. But that’s not a recession.
The Fed is committed to bringing inflation down. But to do so, they need us to swap one hardship for another. Less consumption for less inflation. But that’s not the only way. More supply—whether it’s more workers to hire or more stuff to buy—would reduce inflation too. That’s the better way but more uncertain and beyond the Fed.
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Realistically, the Fed cannot do anything about supply. But is there anything that Congress or the WH can do about it either?
With all this increased demand, where are the JC’s scrambling to supply this demand and profit from it?
If you want to increase supply of labor, that could point to immigration reform. I could get behind a points based system with weighting around skillsets.
If more later is needed,lower the points. If less labor is needed raise the points. This could be addressed annually very easily,and could ease the insane cost of skilled labor.
I am in a low cost area in flyover land, and the last plumbing job was at $120 per
hour and the plumber was moonlighting. Through a company the bid was over $200 per hour. Scarce labor can and will charge whatever the market will bear,as it should be. Immigration,smartly done, could help solve some of those issues.
Jk
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The economy is cyclic. Everyone knows this. That’s why the Conference Board posts an Index of Coincident Indicators (which describe the current economy) and ALSO an Index of Leading Indicators (economic factors which are known to change before the entire economy follows). I posted these in my last Control Panel.
We are not in a recession yet. The Index of Coincident Indicators is still growing. But the Index of Leading Indicators has begun to drop.
Wendy
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Jim, you are not paying the insane cost of skilled labor
You are paying a tradesperson.
Skilled labor can thread a pipe, solder a copper joint or mount a fixture. A tradesperson knows the codes, pays insurance and license fees and has accumulated years of knowledge, tools and tricks of the trade.
If you want to hire “skilled labor” and act as foreperson yourself, you can indeed get a lower hourly rate.