That try investing men’s souls!
Whats a poor investor to do? If you are a fully invested LTBH you only have three choices: 1) Surrender and flee; 2) Employ the RTHG Strategy; 3 Hunker Down. As far as I can tell - that’s it.
Since I have some cash on hand I decided to: A) Employ RTHG Strategy to roll out of GLBE to fatten the cash; 2) I added BILL with a Bench Level Position; and 3) Added another layer of TBs to every remaining roster company not named DOCN. Thus leaving me a single tranche of cash remaining and the option of boiling out of DOCN to feed the Higher confidence group.
What about SNOW? Well…and this will sound like treason to the dyed in the wool High Growth - but its a dead heat today between SNOW, MELI, CRWD and a couple of others. Day ain’t over by a long shot so if today’s carnage gets worse I could just roll a few more bucks into the remaining High Confidence group. Then Hunker Down - or perhaps sell DOCN to book some cash - then Hunker Down.
Losing money in the markets is never fun - but we may be near a bottom as evidenced by the slowly ebbing tide of posters on the boards - which is a big indicator: which is to say when us High Growth types stop buying then the end is in. Or perhaps something like that.
So have the courage of your convictions - this to shall pass.
All the Best,
ps - I wish that dagum Ears woulda waited until today to shoot holes in BROS - Since Ears is a very savvy sort of guy I would still have taken his comments to heart and sold out of my 1 day old adventure into the next Luckin Coffee; however, I woulda booked a quick 10% gain (give or take).
4 Likes
UPDATE: Boiled out of DOCN and preparing to maybe/possibly, sorta think about potentially succumbing to the steady drum beats of the come-to-the-lord for investing salvation SNOW survivors. Could happen. Dunno just yet.
Really like MDB now that I’ve taken another 15 min deep dive after it being mentioned: so many fine targets out there unless it turns out they aren’t. We’ll see.
All the Best,
Note: Families that were hungry and needed food yesterday are still hungry and need food today. Take a few minutes and do the Dinty Moore Beef Stew thing and drop some cans off at your church or local food bank. Won’t hurt you all that much and the hungry folks will appreciate it. And maybe…just maybe…the Good Lord will overlook some of your minor transgressions when you get to the pearly gates. Maybe.
Very tempted to use my last amount of cash at the close but decided not to. Candidates were:
SE
MELI
SNOW
CRWD
And in that order. But try as I might I just couldn’t push the button. SE has cratered to its 52 wk low. Why? Primarily due to India banning a bunch of Chinese Apps that snagged SE as well. Sure Tencent owns some SE - but its selling a bunch of it and besides SE is based in Singapore. Could be some dazzle dazzle, Kansas City Shuffle trick and those rascally, dodgy Chinese could be the power behind SE - but I just doubt that. And then Garena - the game division sees weakness which is bad because up to now Garena has funded the companies expansion into eCommerce, Fintech…etc. But really - if you think that SE has a pulse at all then 52 weeks low pricing is very attractive; unless, rather than India giving the company a Get-Out-Of-Jail card on gaming they decide to boot the entire company. This would be bad.
Then there is MELI which today sank once again below $1,100 to the $1,050 range. Below that to any significant degree and MELI has been money in the bank. I was tempted - very tempted but decided to see what Monday brings before making a decision.
And SNOW…todays great debate: good or not good at these levels. Well…it depends. SNOW is a great company and sooner or later they will rise. And - it looks like the 200-210 range is the current floor. But then along comes Dreamer and mentions the 3-Day rule. And once again Dreamer is on the logical common sense side of things. So - again, the wait till Monday and lets see what happens delay.
Lastly, CRWD. CRWD is rock solid but has been hit ever since its last report with the ‘Revenue Growth is Slowing’ mantra. Not that that appears to be wrong so much as it represents a sort of ABANDON SHIP alert. The question is should it be? The answer lies in the need for cloud security in these times and where - exactly, might CRWD’s Revenue Growth stabilize if at all. I mean - sure the law of big numbers carries significant gravity for every company eventually - but…but what if - just like NET, CRWD stabilizes Rev Grow around the 50% number. Truthfully though, no one makes investing decisions based on potential lingering What-Ifs that are sure fire to negatively impact the fat multiples that most of our companies can’t justify anyway. I really still like CRWD but in the back of my mind I keep hearing - Remember OKTA! So theres that.
So I kept my cash for another day - and besides, should the market seriously tank again Monday I suppose I will employ more RTHG Strategy and pad the STARTERS - looking at you NET.
Investing is hard.
I have a lot of adjustments to make to the ER rankings and thereafter we begin to fatten the rankings up with additional +/- Efficiency Scores.
All the Best,
All the Best,
1 Like
Yeah I could not resist SE being below $100, I purchased a few shares. That thesis has always been about the Thintech and Shopee, not about the gaming. Long term seems like a solid bet (unless this whole Russia thing starts WWIII)
1 Like