Top of the market signals?

So on its own I wasn’t worried - the Shopify secondary, as per Saul et al - i’m not seeing the downside. After 1 week - I have now seen 5 of my holdings offer secondaries with QuintilesIMS being the latest; (and I don’t remember any of my holdings ever announcing secondaries ever before in 20+ years of investing - although I am sure they have either called it something else or just never announced it). Some still partially PE owned, some recently IPO’s some market veterans.

Individually - no big deal. Collectively - it feels like smart money is saying - this is the top of the market and we are going to make hay whilst the sun shines and we don’t think it is going to be sunny tomorrow.

Ant

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Companies no more call the top than you or I do.

Sure, the market has been rising. So, now seems like a good time to get more value per share issued. I can see that logic.

But a market top doesn’t necessarily follow.
Companies are not necessarily “smart money” and I’m not really sure there is “smart money.” Maybe “big money” but that doesn’t mean it’s smart.

A.J.

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Companies are not necessarily “smart money”…

I used to think that insiders and executives were smart money too, until a few years ago I happened to look at Amazon’s insider transactions for some reason or other. I found out there were literally HUNDREDS of insider sales each year, multiple hundreds, and NO insider buys. Just look back two or three years and you’ll see they were selling like mad when Amazon’s stock price was in the three hundreds. It’s now just short of a thousand. But all these senior vice presidents and other execs were selling gobs of their stock at least TWICE A MONTH, EVERY MONTH. Were they so smart?

Just saying. If you doubt it, just look for yourself.

Saul

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It is quite normal to make hay while the sun shines and take no view on whether the sunshine is going to persist!

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Collectively - it feels like smart money is saying - this is the top of the market and we are going to make hay whilst the sun shines and we don’t think it is going to be sunny tomorrow.

Hi Ant,

I disagree. If you back up for a moment and look at the numbers and the headline news, Smart Money may be saying, “This is a once-in-a-lifetime Goldilocks situation, I’m going balls to the wall.” The only bad stretches through daily news seem to be politics (but as far as I can see, the market doesn’t seem to give a darn) and the crash of bricks’n’mortar retailing firms. The latter, I’m not at all sure of what the market thinks. To me, when a way of life for a century starts to change drastically, something’s going to give big time. Meanwhile our portfolios are going up by thousands of dollars a day, so we stay and play the game.

What could change the landscape? Politics for one thing, the Orange One could get his butt in a jam he can’t get out of and (related), 2) Failure of Congress to pass Great Tax Giveaway Scheme for the Rich. I’m pretty sure that would have Smart Money selling Wall Street for a huge discount.

And I could be wrong. Never claimed to be Smart Money. Come to think of it, I’ve never claimed to be any kind of money, 'cuz I never had any. I Could be Dumb Money too; I’m still the only investor I know who admits to buying NFLX multiple times and overall losing money on the stock.

So yeah, I guess I’m Dumb Money. Kindly disregard my market thoughts. Sell everything, the quicker the better. I’d offer to buy you out, but I’m already all in until the price of my buddy Mickey Mouse recovers a bit and meets my asking price which is less than a buck away now. It could take a while in this market, maybe 2, 3 days. Phew!

:slight_smile: Dan

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Study after study shows that companies are lousy investors when it comes to timing their share buybacks on dips. I don’t have any reason to suspect they’re any better at timing their share offerings on peaks.

My opinion on whether this offering is a good development or bad will be based entirely on whether 1) I trust management to reinvest the cash productively, grow the business and earn a healthy return … or 2) I believe they’re building a war chest to make ill-advised, splashy acquisitions.

I’m giving management the benefit of the doubt, at least for now.

They call me,
MrTBS

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I found out there were literally HUNDREDS of insider sales each year, multiple hundreds, and NO insider buys. Just look back two or three years and you’ll see they were selling like mad when Amazon’s stock price was in the three hundreds. It’s now just short of a thousand. But all these senior vice presidents and other execs were selling gobs of their stock at least TWICE A MONTH, EVERY MONTH. Were they so smart?

Yes, quite possibly. Amazon was known for having terrible pay, but generous stock options, not an unusual scenario for startups. After you’ve worked long enough for those options to vest, it might be time to move out of the two bedroom bungalow you could afford when you started, and into the McMansion you now think you deserve. More to the point, it’s time to diversify.

*** side story: I worked for Westinghouse for 17 years. Part of that time I worked in a visible position in a subsidiary in Pittsburgh, where the corporate headquarters was also located. I can tell you several stories where people higher up the food chain took their salaries, deferred their bonuses into Wx stock, took their Wx stock options, and sat on everything… right up until around 1993, when the Lending arm (corporate credit division) got in trouble with a slew of bad loans on golf courses and cheesy strip malls and the entire company went upside down. Suddenly those smarties found themselves without a job, and with stock they had bought along the way from $50 to $80 which was then worth $7 a share, and with stock options that were priced at $60 that were so far underwater that they could not (and would not) ever recover. I could point you to a couple of guys who had millions of dollars in “net worth”, who are now living in a humble split level in Monroeville because they lost their jobs and their options all at once, and whose stock would have once bought them yachts and would now barely handle a kitchen remodel. ***

Diversification. It’s oftentimes quite smart indeed. It worked out well for Bill Gates, who didn’t. It maybe didn’t work out so well for the guys at Netscape who didn’t.

And if you see sales “TWICE A MONTH”, that means they are programmed sales, which the SEC allows you to do, even in quiet and sensitive periods (like just before earnings come out) because then you cannot be accused of insider trading. You mandated (and filed paperwork for) these sales a year or more ago, long before you could have known what the quarterly report was going to say. This is, for practical purposes, the only way executives with large blocs of stock can sell 1) without triggering insider trading investigations and 2) without releasing millions of shares into the market at once, in the short windows allowed for insiders, depressing the share price.

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There are two kinds of secondary, quite different. a) new shares issued by the company, and b) founding partners or venture capital selling shares with no proceeds going to the company. The first is dilutive, the second isn’t, just founders, angels and vultures cashing out.

As for a market top, what I’m noticing is a strong rotation away from oil and retail and into high tech, specifically semiconductors and internet. BRKA is up only 1.5% YTD.

NASDAQ Composite, the hottest index, is right on the average CAGR line

http://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats40/^IXIC.html

Denny Schlesinger

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There are two kinds of secondary, quite different. a) new shares issued by the company, and b) founding partners or venture capital selling shares with no proceeds going to the company. The first is dilutive, the second isn’t, just founders, angels and vultures cashing out.

Yeh - this is the second. I would think that the money guys at Private Equity are smarter than the average company (and especially so considering it is TPG and QuintilesIMS). Indeed the private equity owners is forcing the company to buy them out of their private equity. This has me much more concerned than the first kind you mentioned as an indicator of what if not smart money then certainly professional BIG money thinks.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14150115/1/quintilesims-anno…

I agree that the track record on any company individually to call top or bottom is poor but if big money is moving in unison this could even move markets or become a self fulfilling prophecy.

Ant

Excellent point, Captain Denny, on the likely possibility that some or all of this is an early investor cash-out.

I always try to be careful about reading too much into when PE and VC funds cash out. Their investment strategies and exit points are based on a lot of things that aren’t necessarily market timing. Neither are often in the business of holding positions in large public companies, even growing ones. SHOP was an absolute grand slam for any early investor; the VCs and their investors are ready to go find the next 10 startups to invest in, hoping 1 will reward them with another IPO exit. PE shops (if there are any selling in this offering) are looking for the next private business to buy, or public company to take private.

PE and VC firms are also very beholden to fund life. When raising an individual fund, it always has a targeted start and end date. Investors have had a lot of cash tied up in those funds for a long time (7-10 years, often), and the scheduled end of the fund’s life means it’s time to exit positions and distribute back to the investors/LPs. Every investment they make is with a defined time period and an exit in mind.

Hedge funds, on the other hand, are the “smart” money who may try to time peaks and valleys to improve their investors’ returns. Spoiler alert: hedge funds who buy/sell public equity have a distribution of returns that looks a lot like the distribution of “little guy” investor returns.

All this to say, it’s possible this is a warning sign to bail now. Or it’s possible this is the natural mechanics of modern finance, probably even planned 2 years ago as part of the IPO (or as part of the merger transaction, in Ant’s example of TPG exiting some or all of its investment in Q).

To (very loosely) quote N.N. Taleb (and completely out of his original context, though I think he’d approve of my analogy), my investing mind is evolved enough to see patterns, but I’m trying to evolve it even further to prune out the spurious.

They call me,
MrTBS

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Since this board has migrated closer to a strategy of companies without earnings and a dubious proposition of ever getting them, I’m not sure these charts will mean much to you. They seem to indicate there isn’t a whole lot of room left.

Historic SP500

http://www.multpl.com/

Historic Shiller Pe

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

A

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There are a few really clever guys who think IPO are the key factor in market tops. Excessive supply of stocks without a commensurate increase in demand. But I can’t quantify it enough to be useful in timing.
Many IPO, especially in a stock bubble, are designed to be just that and the companies have no hope of sustaining a business.

Most secondaries may be different, successful businesses raising capital dirt cheap, capital that does not need to be paid back. Get cheap money while you can, modest dilution will not hurt your stock price. Presumably the cash infusion makes the companies and therefore their stock safer. If they are safer they should command a higher P/E. So I would look to the IPO market more than the secondary market as a topping indicator.

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Since people like to show the Shiller PE maybe we should get it from the horses mouth.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller believes investors should continue to own stocks because the bull market may continue for years.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/23/robert-shiller-market-could-g…

I don’t think Shiller can even time the market :slight_smile:

Andy

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Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller believes investors should…

A roomful of PhDs and Nobel Prize winners at Long Term Capital Management crashed the market. I don’t have much confidence on either “certification of brilliance.”

Denny Schlesinger

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I don’t think Shiller can even time the market :slight_smile:

Agreed. The past does not guarant…

Sorry, I just fell asleep for a second.

So Shiller’s PE Nobel Laureate dealio is telling us the market is way over-valued and to Run to the Hills, but Shiller the man, himself, is telling us its okay and things could certainly go up another 50% from here. Sage advice.

A.J.

So Shiller’s PE Nobel Laureate dealio is telling us the market is way over-valued and to Run to the Hills, but Shiller the man, himself, is telling us its okay and things could certainly go up another 50% from here. Sage advice.

A.J.

Looking back over history, things could go up 12000% from here. The Dow went from 800 to 1200 or so from 1982 to 1999.

Cheers
Qazulight

Looking back over history, things could go up 12000% from here. The Dow went from 800 to 1200 or so from 1982 to 1999.

You lost me (not that my being lost is much of an indicator of anything).

I hosed of the numbers, the Dow only went up 1000 to 1500 percent between 82 and 99.

In 82 the Dow was making new highs off the mid 1970’s lows, every day the market was over priced.

In '82 the super high tech (not) Walmart was selling at a premium and it did so until Sam Walton died.

In 82 or so, IBM came out with IBM Dos, but it was licenced from a nerd from Seattle and about 82 or so a little start up started building CISC chips and called them 8080. (Intel)

We are on the cusp of a bull market like the world has never seen.

The market goes in cycles, we could see another dip, no one can predict the future, but the probabilities are with the optimist now.

Cheers
Qazulight

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A roomful of PhDs and Nobel Prize winners at Long Term Capital Management crashed the market. I don’t have much confidence on either “certification of brilliance.”

Denny Schlesinger

I don’t know Denny but if I crashed the market I think that would give me bragging rights. How many people can say that they alone crashed the market. :slight_smile:

Andy
Just a little skeptical

So Shiller’s PE Nobel Laureate dealio is telling us the market is way over-valued and to Run to the Hills, but Shiller the man, himself, is telling us its okay and things could certainly go up another 50% from here. Sage advice.

A.J.

Exactly, who are you going to believe. Young naive Shiller or older wiser Shiller?

Andy