TracyK Portfolio Performance through 4/30/2018

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Good evening fellow investing journeymen/women,
We are more than halfway through May, and I’m just now catching up with April results.
Through April:
Tracy’s portfolio is up 20% (same as March)
S&P = (-1%)
NASDAQ = +2.4%
Russell 2000 = +.6%

Top ten stocks - % growth:
CRSP (CRISPR Therapeutics) +99.6%
NFLX (Netflix) +62.8%
ABMD (Abiomed) +60%
NTNX (Nutanix) +43.4%
PAYC (Paycom) +42.2%
SQ (Square) +36.5%
SHOP (Shopify) +32.3%
AYX (Alteryx) +23.7%
TDOC (Teledoc) +23.4%
INST (Instructure) +22.5%

Top ten holding in % holdings:
NFLX (Netflix) 26.4%
AAPL (Apple) 5.4%
CASH ($$) 5.4%
GOOG/L (Alphabet)3.9%
NTNX (Nutanix) 3.1%
AYX (Alteryx) 2.9%
ABMD (Abiomed) 2.8%
NVDA (Nividia) 2.8%
MFA (MFA Financial) 2.7%
BRK-B (Berkshire Hathaway) 2.4%
52.4% of total portfolio

April activity:
Sold some BRK-B (Berkshire Hathway)…thank you, GauchoChris
Sold all of NVEE (NV5 Global)
Sold all of VRSN (Verisign)
Sold all of DGS (WisdomTree Emerging Markets)
Bought PSTG (Pure Storage)
Bought MDB (Mongo)

So far, May’s results look promising; I hope your results look good too. Have a great evening,
~TracyK

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Sold some BRK-B (Berkshire Hathway)…thank you, GauchoChris

I hold a slug of BRK-B as sort of a bond proxy. Did GauchoChris say something influential on Berkshire?

Thanks,
doppel

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Hey doppel,
Thanks for reading the post. Actually, GauchoChris was super helpful in aiding me in seeing the benefit of gradually letting go of my solid, but staid holdings. I’m whittling down my BRK-B bit by bit. I still have GOOG/L, MA, V, and AAPL to deal with, but a girl can only do so much!

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I still have GOOG/L, MA, V, and AAPL to deal with, but a girl can only do so much!

Not sure I would consider those stocks “to deal with”, although I have trimmed my Apple holdings a bit in the past 6 months. I don’t own the other 3, but wouldn’t be in any big rush to get rid of them if I did own some.

A part of me almost regrets having not bought part of each of the 4 “war on cash basket” stocks mentioned by Jason Moser last summer - Square, Paypal, Mastercard, and Visa…but the other part of me recognizes fully that the one I have owned, Square, has outperformed the other 3, so the thoughts of regret are stupid. Either way, though, Visa and Mastercard are far from the worst stocks you could own…even if trying to have a nicely concentrated Saul-like portfolio.

Right Matt Cochrane (TMFCochrane…mentioning him since I know he follows that basket closely) :slight_smile:

volfan84

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volfan84, you’re right - and that’s why I’ve been slow to move. I have some old stalwarts: V, MA, GOOG/L, APPL, BRK-B that I have held onto. I also have a REIT - MFA that currently has an ~10% yield. So far…I have only whittled down BRK-B, and placed the proceeds into MFA. The remaining “old-timers” still have a spot in my portfolio. A mind game to be sure! Yes, yes - TMFCochrane has influenced my outlook…in a good way. ~TracyK

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volfan84, you’re right - and that’s why I’ve been slow to move. I have some old stalwarts: V, MA, GOOG/L, APPL, BRK-B that I have held onto. I also have a REIT - MFA that currently has an ~10% yield. So far…I have only whittled down BRK-B, and placed the proceeds into MFA. The remaining “old-timers” still have a spot in my portfolio. A mind game to be sure! Yes, yes - TMFCochrane has influenced my outlook…in a good way. ~TracyK

I agree with volfan that “old-timers” or “old stalwarts” can have a place in any portfolio, even an aggressive growth one. I’ve sold a few longer term stocks when the overall longer term picture changed significantly. Otherwise, I’ve held on to quite a few while shifting to a more aggressive concentrated portfolio - this seems similar to what you are doing. I’ve avoided selling some due to large capital gains in a taxable account.

I noticed that you have an extremely large position in NFLX! Have you held it for awhile? If so, I see that you have a more than ten bagger over the past 5 years. Is that why it’s such a huge position? Are you considering trimming it at all?

Unfortunately, I never owned NFLX. Of course, other stocks I own have done well, just not that well.

dave

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Right Matt Cochrane (TMFCochrane…mentioning him since I know he follows that basket closely) :slight_smile:

Whaaat? Who me? :slight_smile:

Truly though, some of my best picks have been GPN, MA, PYPL, and SQ last couple of years (longer for MA).

I haven’t mentioned it much but I had new article on Global Payments get published today. It’s a payment processing company, like Square to an extent, and its rev was up 17% and EPS up 33% this quarter. Adj op margins improved to 30.4%. It is pursuing the strategy of buying, partnering with, or internally developing software verticals. This means Global Payments doesn’t simply want to sell its payment processing services merchant by merchant, it wants to capture entire niche markets at a time, an approach with numerous advantages. This strategy enables the company to maintain stronger customer retention rates, improve margins, and capture market share.

Seemingly every quarter they announce a new deal with some such software vertical. For instance, this quarter they partnered with Aspira, a campground reservation software management platform. The partnership means Global Payments will handle the payment processing for all transactions across the Aspira service.

Last year they acquired ACTIVE Networks for about $1B, event planning platform whose clients include Ironman, the YMCA, and several state parks.

Internally, they’ve developed platforms like Xenial, a restaurant management platform very similar to Square for Restaurants.

Anyway the article is here: https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/21/the-secret-to-glob…

Based on its forward P/E (using midpoint of company’s guidance), it is trading with a P/E of 22.8 – not too shabby if you ask me. I find it especially interesting because even though it is not showing the hyper-growth that some of the other companies we discuss are, it seems much more reasonably priced. JMHO.

I’ve been meaning to do a deep dive on the company on the boards for ages but haven’t found the time. So hopefully this abbreviated take will do for now…

Matt
Long GPN, MA, PYPL, SQ
MasterCard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Skechers (SKX) and Square (SQ) Ticker Guide
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/TMFCochrane/info.aspx

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Hey Dave,
Yes - I have owned NFLX since 2007. The split adjusted purchase price was slightly below $3.00 per share. I did sell a bit in 2017, and have held onto the rest. It’s been a great performer, and that being said - if/when it dips - I need to be prepared. It’s certainly the “Clydesdale” of my portfolio!

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Hey Dave,
Yes - I have owned NFLX since 2007. The split adjusted purchase price was slightly below $3.00 per share. I did sell a bit in 2017, and have held onto the rest. It’s been a great performer, and that being said - if/when it dips - I need to be prepared. It’s certainly the “Clydesdale” of my portfolio!

Congrats! You must have held through the 75% drop in 2011. Your patience has certainly paid off and is a fine example for longer term investors. Yes, it’s hard to know when or if to trim a winner. Valuation alone doesn’t seem to be a good decision tool. With annual revenue growth currently staying above 30% for now, it seems that the company continues on its great growth trajectory.

dave

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Dave, your note got me to thinking…what was NFLX’s closing year-end price since I’ve owned the stock?

2007 $26.62
2008 $29.89
2009 $55.09
2010 $175.70
2011 $69.29
2012 $13.23
2013 $368.17
2014 $341.61
2015 $114.38 (stock split 7/15/2015 - 7:1)
2016 $123.80
2017 $191.96

Close 5/23/2018 $344.72

I’ve been following this board for nearly three years. I wonder what I would have done in 2012 if I hadn’t been such a big believer in “buy and hold?”

TracyK

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I’ve been following this board for nearly three years. I wonder what I would have done in 2012 if I hadn’t been such a big believer in “buy and hold?”

TracyK

Yes, it is an interesting thought. I actually underestimated the drop in 2011 and 2012 which was greater than 80% peak to trough, I believe. I suspect I would not have held through the entire drop. I’m not sure what percentage of stocks rebound after that kind of drop. I wonder if anybody here has that information. In my experience, stocks have had difficulty recovering after a greater than 50% drop.

I don’t know NFLX well so I’m don’t know why it had the big drop earlier, whether it was justified based on the fundamentals. But if your conviction in the longer term picture remained, it made sense to buy and hold.

I think I have regretted selling longer term winners too soon more than buying some losers. A ten bagger more than makes up for many losers.

dave I

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