In the summer of 2024, most Western politico-military commentators were predicting that Russia was focussed on storming the strategically important military hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. Russian troops had advanced slowly, inexorably westward in a straight line following the bloody attritional battle for Avdiivka which was captured in February 2024.
But from August, Russian tactics shifted. First from the south of Donetsk they stormed Vuhledar, literally translated as “Gift of Coal,” a site of significant reserves, capturing it on October 1. That opened the way to swallow up large swaths of land in the south. Following the apparent encirclement of Velyka Novosilka in the past two days, one of Ukraine’s three licensed blocks of extractable lithium is now within short reach in Shevchenko.
Russian armed forces skirted Pokrovsk, instead battling through Selydove and in a straight line for about 20 miles, capturing a Uranium mine in a village called Shevchenko (not the same Shevchenko where the lithium is located). In recent weeks, Russian forces have taken Ukraine’s most important mine for coking coal in Pishchane and two related coking coal shafts in Udachne and Kotlyne. Together, these mines alone had produced the coking coal for 65% of Ukraine’s steel production. There are now fears that Ukrainian steel production could plummet to 10% of its prewar level in 2025.
The U.S. president, whose administration is pressing for a rapid end to Ukraine’s war with Russia, said on Monday he wanted Ukraine to supply the U.S. with rare earths and other minerals in return for financially supporting its war effort.
“If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal, we are only for it,” Zelenskiy said, emphasising Ukraine’s need for security guarantees from its allies as part of any settlement.
Ukraine as a source of rare earths is a goid idea but some point out the rare earths are mostly in areas occupied by or threatened by Russia.
Yes, security is required. And are these rare earths being mined and refined? Or is that future speculation. And don’t forget refining rare earths is messy, dirty, and likely to produce waste streams to be stored somewhere. Not easy to get permits many places. One of the reasons China is the leading source.
I’m quite sure getting them in Ukraine, should the war turn in that direction, would be quite easy. This is the country, after all, that’s got a tourist attraction named “Chernobyl” nearby.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine likewise said his country was working on a draft agreement between the two governments, seemingly tamping down the tensions that had flared with Mr. Trump over a deal.
“This agreement can add value to our relations — what matters most is getting the details right to ensure it truly works,” Mr. Zelensky said in a social media post on Friday.
Reversal? I smell a rat. (Well, duh.) Seriously, the deal will likely promise some sort of ‘protection’ from Russia that will evaporate once Zelensky signs.
Seriously, the deal will likely promise some sort of ‘protection’ from Russia that will evaporate once Zelensky signs.
What I expect is a double cross. Zelensky signs over the minerals, not knowing that TIG has a secret deal with Putin to retain access to the minerals, after Russian troops walk over the rest of Ukraine, because Trump cut off the flow of arms. Of course, then TIG gets double crossed by Putin, who keeps the minerals for himself. But TIG won’t care, because he can brag about a 'win".