when going gets tough, try your best

Copying and re-posting in case of deletion, post 85834 from Saul board by tryingmybest.

“Not sure what this board is becoming. Lately it seems to be a lot of what’s going to get deleted, what can someone say, reminders by Saul of what can’t be said. Seems to be spinning it’s wheels. When is the last time an actual new investment was presented by anyone, discussed, and accepted as a true possibility. How many, including myself won’t even try for fear of being shot down by the leaders of the board. Speaking of the leaders of this board, where have they all gone?

There used to be a very active core group that walked with extreme confidence, that seemed could do no wrong, that had mastered the market. Some of them have disappeared over the last few months. Seemingly once headed towards leadership roles, starting there own websites, newsletters, live webcasts, videos on Yahoo, building Twitter followings, all at the best of times. Many now silent at the worst of times.

My point is this. If you make the decision to step to the forefront and take on a leadership role when it’s easy to do so, when business is great, you need to also work through the worst of times, to show those same leadership skills when the you know what hits the fan. Saul is still here, but that core group of vocal leaders that were once very active on this board, some of them have completely vanished, not only here, but everywhere else they built a following.

Ok, even as I type this I feel like I’m wasting my time even now, as this will most likely not last 15 minutes on the board. Just know, to the person that deletes this, I’m not attacking anyone here, I’m just trying to give the board something to think about. A critique of what I think has happened here, and what this board has lost over this terrible sell off. I’m certain is will all make a comeback when this bear market ends, will find it’s vibrancy and footing again. At least I hope so.



correct post number is 85384

Saul has his own way of investing. A ton of people just followed him w/o having any clue what they were doing. Those early in the run probably made excellent money, those later in the market may have gotten crushed if they weren’t exceptionally nimble.

I’ve been around these boards since the 90s and it is always similar. When things are going well people start predicting huge gains and say it is different this time but then when things drop some double down and get destroyed when the stocks keep dropping. Most just disappear.

Basically anyone who retired 20 years ago and had money in stocks/bonds did exceptionally well since interest rates dropped constantly and stocks, while having some big drops, still did quite well so it was almost impossible to lose money if you just bought and held investments.

A simple 60/40 portfolio started in 1998 gained over 5% after inflation. Even 100% in bonds gained 2.2% after inflation (CAGR). Hard to go wrong for those retirees.

Going forward will be interesting. Some think things are cheap because the market has dropped 20-30% and maybe it is, or maybe it is just closer to where things should have been prior to the fed providing tons of cash to everyone.

Right now most of the world is broken financially. No airline can function. Heathrow wants to cap passengers to 100K per day which is far below the 219K they were doing in 2019. Of course Heathrow being owned by a bunch of private companies have been making large profits while making the passengers suffer. Most of the US airlines are equally broken.

Not exactly the situation I was hoping for as I ponder retirement. I suppose someone could say things must have to improve from here, hopefully that is true although nothing ever has to do anything.

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