As suggested a while back, the bromance between Musk and “himself”, leader of a blatantly, proudly, EV-hostile posse, didn’t make sense.
At least automakers were given three months to clear their lots. Recall how EV sales collapsed when some EU countries repealed their incentives.
And, here’s a bit of flawed thinking in the article.
Buyers have until Sept. 30 to qualify for the federal tax credits on EVs before they are terminated. But experts say there are still strong financial reasons to consider buying the vehicles even without those incentives.
According to the latest data from Kelley Blue Book, the average purchase price of a new EV is roughly $9,000 higher in the United States than the average new gas-powered car. Used EVs on average cost $2,000 more than comparable gas cars.
A 2020 study in the academic journal Joule found that the average EV in the U.S. charged with a typical mix of public and private chargers saves the driver $7,700 in fuel costs over a 15-year life span, compared to filling a car with gas.
But, how many people keep a new car for fifteen years, before switching to the new hotness? How many EVs go out on a three year lease? My neighbor, an ardent member of the posse, has commented on the “thousands” a couple neighbors of his in Florida paid to have chargers installed in their garages.
And yet, with the winds blowing against EVs, for months now, Ford closes Louisville Assembly, to retool for EVs.
Which probably means that’s it’s longer than that, given that there’s a whole slug of the market that’s on leases for 3 years, which pulls that number down.
I traded in my 1994 Infiniti J30T for my Ioniq6 about a year ago. The Infiniti was a 1994 - so 30 years. No, the Ioniq wasn’t eligible for the EV incentive (made in Korea) I bought it anyway. Terrific car. Love it.
I’m not “excluding” them. I am say that by “including” them the number for “initial ownership” is pulled down, given that leases represent 25% of the market. That’s a very big segment that isn’t really “ownership” in the sense of the word that I think of.
Mathematically I guess it’s correct to include it, but ‘ownership” to me conveys the idea of, well, “ownership”, not “long term rent”. If you took out that 25% of the market, it implies that the ‘initial period” would jump from 8 to almost 11 years for people who “buy” cars.
EV lease rates jumped from around 15% in 2022 to 67% by March 2025. Tesla, in particular, saw a spike in lease rates, per Cox. The industry’s usual lease rate is about 25%.
The article says that the jump in lease rates was due to a law by the previous administration that denied the tax credits for EVs that contained a lot of Chinese parts. But commercial sales were exempt from the Chinese Exclusion Act, and leases are classified as commercial transactions.
And, does that assertion that people “save” $7700 include calculations for the time value of that money over 15 years, or the cost of installing a charger at home?
Of course not, I was just responding to Dr Bob’s stat that the “first owner” keeps a car for 8 years (on average.) I wanted to point out that the “average” is an accurate, but misleading number if the numbers underneath the statistic come from two entirely different groups with differing characteristics.
None of that means that the cars lose utility after they are traded in.
However, the question here is the payback time of spending more upfront for an EV. That first three years of ownership (by whomever) certainly figures into the calculation.
True. What’s under discussion is a payback calculation. If an EV costs $9K more and there is no government $7.5K subsidy, then the economics for spending more upfront becomes a steeper climb for reduced operating cost to offset. Not to mention the faster depreciation rate for EVs.
And I have yet to see anyone answer the question of whether the $7700 “savings” over 15 years was discounted for time, and if it included the cost of installing a charger at home.
The economics don’t look good for buying a new EV. Without somebody else paying part of the upfront cost (a government subsidy, a sugar daddy, etc.) the extra cost borne by the purchaser (minus the inflation-discounted resale value down the road) needs to be offset by reduced operating expenses.
Since we’ve seen that the resale value of EVs drops a lot and that a home charger should be added into an initial purchase (although not for subsequent ones) it seems doubtful that the original purchaser will make out better economically than an ICE purchaser.
Elon is now going to disrupt American politics with a start up. The third party will be initially small but will hold MOST of the power with deciding votes.
There is a global shift. In Norway 97% of cars sold are Electric. China total EV sales were > 50%. China total sales were 32m. US, total cars sold were 16m.