Arindam or Quill,
I have a question. The UCO chart just gave a green bar for today which isn’t over. Does one wait until the end of the day and see how the day turns out or buy when the bar turns green? The chart I am using is SimonSez3. Its showing a green bar on both the 1 month and 2 month now whereas yesterday at the close it was arc and red. I thought on the 2 month and day setting it would not give the indicator until the close of the market…doc
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That looks good Gene. Now on April 7 and 8th how would you play that? Yes that April 24th looks like it would have been a problem too!
Andy
Hi @buynholdisdead,
On the TECS chart:
The “bottom” label is on the 5th, so buy on the 6th. Looks like a top around 23.25
The “top” label is on the 25th, so sell on the 26th. Looks like a bottom around 23.00.
Depending on the exact buy/sell, it could have lost money.
The May 1st label of 21.28, buy on the 2nd for a max of 22.60-ish.
That is my understanding of it …
And currently, it is below 22.58 …
Gene
All holdings and some statistics on my Fool profile page
https://discussion.fool.com/u/gdett2/activity (Click Expand)
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“The UCO chart just gave a green bar for today which isn’t over. **Does one wait until the end of the day and see how the day turns out or buy when the bar turns green?”
Doc,
It’s far too early in the day for me to start cussing. But your question is exactly the sort of thing that annoys me. Who gives FF what SS3 is or isn’t and what its “rules” are?
What should matter to you is the bet you’re trying to make (or not) on the underlying, namely, the price of crude --or whatever UCO tracks. Next question: "How do you want to express that trade, and in what time frame do you want to do it?
If you don’t know exactly what to do when confronted with every set of conditions you encounter, then you don’t have a trading plan. Period. You’re just bouncing off the halls, knee-jerk reacting to flickering lights on a screen.
If you want to trade intra-day, then do so. If EOD, then do so. Seriously, you need to go back in time a couple of months (or years) and walk the tape forward, one bar at a time and pay attention to what the tape --THE TAPE, not a bunch of rules you didn’t write-- is telling you to do. When you begin to see patterns, you write them down as follows: If conditions ‘X’ occur, it seems to be prudent and profitable to do 'Y". That becomes your trading plan: the set of rules you wrote, the set of rules you understand, the set of rules you trust, the set of rules that are yours and no one else’s.
Why did UCO, DBO, etc. jump today? Who knows? Likely, the demand/supply factors changed. Also, given that oil had become so dramatically oversold, some of the price jump can be explained by mean-reversion. Also, today seems to be ‘Relief-Rally, Risk-on Friday’, and everything is catching a bid (except the stuff that’s an obvious short on ‘optimism’, such as the PMs).
Arindam
Doc,
what we are looking at today is live. We don’t do EOD (end of day) trading.
=
For the people who are coloured blind and just follow the rules for the ARCs. Now observe todays OHLC. It opened on the low side and it is moving north. So we have committed to buying UCO after Selling SCO first.
For exercise DOC: find me any losing trades since September of 22 to the present. On 9/2/2022, you bought FTNT with $ 10,000.00. At each sale, you will compound the profits plus principal. Using a stock analysis program, it will probably say you lost your Tommy John underwear.
Swing Traders since September had 7 out 7 successful trades with Zero losses.
Charts again DON’T lie, people do.
Quill -
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Just in case you missed this Doc. Here are Quill’s rules.
Andy
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Gene, Your chart looks more like the setup I have in stockcharts right now. I don’t know for sure, but the only possibility for a place where a label might have appeared and dropped would have been on the 23rd. It could have been the lowest low for a while. But I don’t think they would have labeled it because the next day opened lower than the close on the 23rd. I have tried to search stockcharts for how it places these labels, but have not been successful so far. It would be nice to know. Keeping screen shots will be helpful. Sometimes I do, but I have not been consistent in that. I think you will be happier with this cleaner chart. Thanks for letting us know that the big difference in the amount of price labels was switching to ACP instead of SharpCharts. If I see anymore label moves, I will post them here so we can all learn from it.
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Is anyone else thinking XLE might be a good idea for buy today?
Doc:
Re: Simon Sez III
Are you into Crypto coins, are you a nervous nelly or do you have nerves of steel.
= You Swing Trade the same way with Simon Sez III. The following chart is daily followed by a 4 hour chart of which I look at all day long using my Egg timer.
= Daily -
= 4 hour -
Some folks will use some kind Analytical tools that will be saying Swing Traders will be losing their Tommy John Underwear. Charts don’t like, people do.
Money talks, BS walks. With the above charts, find me a losing trade.
At every buy signal place, a dollar amount.
I am showing the money as Jerry Maguire is screaming " Where is the Money".
your allowed to place a dollar amount when asked to Buy in or Sell in for the Cryptos
and buy in shares or sell in shares for regular stocks.
Quill - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader.
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re: XLE
It is certainly Ollie !
If you have Stock charts, look at the right hand side and click on the Globe ICON which will show all of them doing well today. Some will have to wait for a buy signal.
The only chart missing is XRT
Enjoy the rest of the trading day
Quill -
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Quill, thanks. I did go ahead with the XLE today. Added XRT to my watchlist for future. When you said above that “we don’t do end of day trading” do you mean that you never do? Or just in certain situations? Just curious.
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Arindam,
Is that the video you had attached to a thread here on the banking fiasco? I did watch that one all the way through. It was very good. I tried to look up that thread to see if it was that was the one you were referring to. It seems to be gone. Or I could simply be overlooking it. MarketBeat had an interesting article recently, “The Banking Crisis Isn’t Over”.
I do believe things are going to get much worse. I am very thankful to you and Quill and the others here who are helping me learn some new tricks to get through it when it gets ugly!
Here’s the link. She’s a sharp, smart, thoughtful analyst.
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re: EOD
Lisa,
I never do End of Day Trading. It is used mainly by Day Traders in lining up there ducks in hoping the stock will rise the following morning with out a game plan.
Question: what are your thoughts on LULU that currently does not pay any divvies from 3/16/23 and do you use any of their products.
Arindam, That was very insightful! Thank you!
Quill,
Thanks for the end of day info. I currently own LULU as it is one that I bought as a buy-n-hold. Now it is in my list of stocks to switch into swing trading mode. It has been on a nice run so I haven’t sold yet. I watch it for any significant downturn everyday. Then I plan to take the profit and get back in when the time is right. I don’t own any of their products currently, but probably more than half the women I know do own them! I don’t see the demand slowing anytime soon. Do you currently own this one?
I also think it’s impressive that it is so high above its 200ema. So many are below right now. I can’t remember which book I read that suggested never buying any stock that’s beneath its 200ema.
Just looked back at the 6 month on this. It could be hitting resistance right now around 389. Probably time to sell soon. Anyone that got in on 3/16 and still has it is happy.
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Quill,
That is sheer, Bernie Madoff-style nonsense. Do a bar by bar walk through. There were at least four losing trades.
Why you persist in making those sorts of claims of “no losses” is beyond me to understand when the opposite is so easy to prove.
‘Simon Sez’ (and its variants) is a trend-following method of making buy and sell decisions that has a track record of wins versus losses comparable to other trend-following systems when tested across statistically meaningful data sets.
By now, I probably have as much research time invested in 'Simon" and its variants as you. In its essence and essentials, it’s a good method for keeping oneself out of trouble. But there’s no magic to it, nor is it a path to fabulous wealth. It’s just a way of not doing anything too regrettably stupid.
Arindam
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re: FTNT : Swing Traders since September had 7 out 7 successful trades with Zero losses.
Young man I suggest you re-read Simon Sez III rules. You’re working with to much Information Overload with tons of theories.
Let’s review the rules.
" When a Price label appears to do the following:
1 ) For the TOP Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the price drops below the high signal to SELL the stock to help protect your ASSets.
2 ) For the BOTTOM Price Label, we wait and wait until the next bar when the Price bar is rising upwards to BUY the stock. "
For a 9th grader, the instructions are very simple to Buy Out of the Gate and proceed to the Finishi line. The rules does not mention anything about the RED or GREEN bars but proceed to the Finish Line and SELL the stock. Any casual observer would ignore the red bars after the starting gate and keep going to the Finish Line.
Where do you see any concerns in the rules about the RED bars. When a horse jumps at the bell out of the starting gate, the horse does not count how many posts along the rail on his way to the Finish Line.
Now, lets review what a successful trade is for 9th graders and adult Swing Traders.
FTNT chart
9/2/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
9/13/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade rewarding the bettors a substantial amount of money. Do you agree or disagree.
then on 9/28/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 10/7/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade. Winna winna chicken dinner.
then on 10/14/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 11/02/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade.
then on 11/04/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 11/16/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade.
intermission bathroom break gotta go gotta go. then hit the refrig.
then on 12/08/22 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 12/14/22 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade.
Merry Christmas, got lots of toys for the Grand Kids.
Happy New Year to all
then on 1/17/23 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 2/16/23 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade. Man it paid big bux.
then on 3/14/23 Bang - the horse is out of the gate
then on 4/17/23 the horse crossed over the finish line as a successful trade. Man, the bettors were paid bigger bux.
then on 5/4/23 Bang - the horse is out of the gate. Still running around the first turn and heading for home and in the Trending zone
Now young man, do you see any losses. You are seeing RED and GREEN bars, what would you do if all the OHLC’s and Candle Stix were Black and White as shown below. I have been doing black and white plots on Graphic paper for over 40 years on just 6 stocks. When I was in the Navy conducting sea operations during the Vietnam War, I would go to the radio shak and have my friend contact Hong Kong via the Boston Teletype machine’s for OHLC every day. When in Japan, my friend contacted the Naval Air Station for OHLC’s for the day on 6 stocks. I then plotted them out. Notice NO RED or GREEN OHLC’s.
As they say " TRADE what you see, not what you think ."
If I were you, I’d go back and teach the KID how a 9 th grader makes money the olde fashion way. They earn it.
I’ll put it this way, if your KID Swing Traded just LULU like Lisa and I, we could have retired long time ago. And certainly not the way you like to lose money the olde fashion way or Swing Traded a six pack of Tetter Totters.
In my young days, I use to for every GREEN bar, I would buy 10 shares until the Finish Line. Had to stop, ran out of money.
Currently, I have two (2) new students who are in there 30’s, one by being laid off and the other worked in NYC and quit because of the mess going on in the Subways and the streets that is no longer safe.
LULU was there first stock to trade as well as the SPDR sectors and a 6 pack of Tetter Totters to go. Plus working on the Divvie portfolio.
Let’s review the charts
I wish you the best,
Quill -
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Quill,
Putting ‘buy’ and ‘sell’ arrows on a chart whose whole history is completely shown is an art exercise, not a back-test.
An acceptable back-test for a trading system might have this format. At each day, at the hard, right-hand edge of the chart, using a clearly defined rule set, state what the appropriate action for the next day would be. Then advance the chart to see if the rule set made a correct prediction. Note the result. Advance the chart one more bar and make the next prediction. Repeat the back-test a statistically significant number of times, and then tabulate the results. If the results show that the rule set, on average and across a wide range of tradables annd market conditions, offers a positive edge, then the system is tradable. Else, it isn’t. Thing are that simple.
Note: Using software, a back-test can be run on five years of data for 500 stocks in less than 3 minutes. When I code and test your rule sets, they preform exactly as trend-following systems could be expected to perform, namely, with a right/wrong ratio that tends be around 35%.
If the gullible and easily deceived want to believe your claims of obtaining better results than that, they are free to do so. I don’t.
Arindam
Arindam this doesn’t pass the smell test. You stated that ai could never take over trading because there are to many variables that only a good trader can do. Yet you use a program to run a back test that says any trader can only get a right/wrong ratio of around 35 percent and you tell Quill, who you admit is the best trader you have ever met, that he can only get 35 percent correct because a program, that is a lot less sophisticated than AI, told you that.
How do you reconcile these two varied viewpoints?
Andy
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