**As of** **Friday, September 9, 2022**
**Status of the three(x5) used for Allocation: 80%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
Count of new signals in the last 30 days = **1 (Zero new signals since last week)**
**PO's: 3** of five indicators are "Bullish".
New signal is **possible** next week.
**MAC(10m): 0** of five indicators are "Bullish".
New signal is **not likely** next week.
**DBE(99d,5m): 0** of five indicators are "Bullish".
Next possible 99 day new high is **-8.1%** %Off_Hi(99)
**Other_MAC: (FYI only) 67%** of fifteen indicators are "BEARish".
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**Modern Family:** **Symbol: Status: Roles (leading indicators that act as a guide for the stock market macro picture)**
S&P 500 Index .SPx **BEARish** - major U.S. market index
Russell 1000EW EQAL **Warning** - gauge the health of many Large-Mid companies within the U.S.
Russell 2000 IWM **BEARish** - gauge the health of many Small-Micro companies within the U.S.
Transportation IYT **Warning** - measure Industry & Manufacture strength - supply and demand
Retail XRT **BEARish** - measure strength economy and consumer confidence
Regional Bank KRE **Warning** - measure the health of financial system in the U.S.
BioTech IBB **BEARish** - highly speculated: assesses where money is flowing
SemiConductor SMH **BEARish** - innovation: a major player technology trends
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The Economic Modern Family (MarketGauge.com) is a combination of one market index and 5 varying sectors & groups for “Market Analysis”. Trend indicators that give you an overall weekly gauge of how aggressive or not to be on the long or short side.
*My Modern Family signals(3) are not strictly identical to the MarketGauge.com “Phases Tutorial”(6).
63% - “BEARish” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages while the 50-DMA is below the 200-DMA.
38% - “Cautionary Warning” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0% - “Cautionary Watch” phase is when the price(5d) is below the 50-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
0% - “Bullish” phase is when the price(5d) is above the 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages for at least 5 days.
19% - “Support” is the level at which demand is strong enough to stop the stock from falling any further. (MAC positive 5d)
81% - “Resistance” is the level at which supply is strong enough to stop the stock from moving higher. (MAC negative 5d)
That graph uses 10y-3m per the original research that has held up very well…
“and the inversion importantly needs to last for a quarter”, adds the original researcher.
I watch it more frequently than that, just considering a shorter duration inversion as an early warning just with less certainty. https://discussion.fool.com/ot-yield-curve-inversion-35149525.as…
As may be obvious there has been no inversion yet, by the classic definition that has held up out of sample since '86.
Hot US Aug CPI seen cementing aggressive FOMC
REUTERS 8:03 AM ET 9/13/2022
MARKET REACTION:
STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply lower, and were down 1.8%, pointing to a weak opening on Wall Street
BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose and was up 5.2 basis points to 3.414%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, surged and was up 13.3 basis points at 3.704%.
Fixed Income & Bond Yields
AS OF 9:58 AM ET 09/13/2022
Does anyone else find the 3mo vs 10y bond yields out of sync from the 2y vs 10y?
This does not seem as it should be. Probably just my paranoia but given the current events and controls it seems anything is possible.
Does anyone else find the 3mo vs 10y bond yields out of sync from the 2y vs 10y? This does not seem as it should be. Probably just my paranoia but given the current events and controls it seems anything is possible.
Nothing out of the ordinary. No conspiracy theory required. The market is indicating that it expects inflation to be an issue, and interest rates to be high, for the next year or two, but not so much for the longer term.