May Performance + Ketchup

Investing Strategies Abandoned Arctic Outpost #13
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Since I have been AWOL I wanted to kill two birds with one post - so to speak. I want to quickly post May Performance Results and then Ketchup on the things up until today. Seems simple enough.

Note 1) I am an amateur investor. Take that for what it’s worth.

Just like the rest of the year the portfolio stunk up the court in May. Having said that, overall the YTD results are about half as bad as what others are reporting. (While no one is pleased by substantial losses the fact that I could be doing much worse assuages my delicate sense of perspective and has tended to temper down my sense of dread, utter frustration, decent into hopelessness as well as my flight or flee panic mode) Why might my actual YTD results be somewhat better? Well…thats pretty simple for three readily apparent reasons:

  1. While I have some core positions that could somehow possibly be randomly interpreted as LTBH - I mean I have had them quite a while; I have no intention of going down with the Titanic, Well…as much as I can help it. I mean - if your hand was on fire it would be a good thing to put it out…right? So…I go with a Retreat to High Ground Strategy. Keep this image in your mind when considering RTHG strategy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfQ-3IMJ_uw

  1. The advent of no trading fees has enabled an investment style that rewards attempts to take advantage of the normal tidal flows of the markets: When the tide goes out I top off the core with 10-15% chunks - then I just wait for it to come back in or present one of those nice bullish support rallies and then I dump them indelicately: Over and over and over again.

Note 2: Credit where credit is due: This trading strategy evolved from MSlob’s Whack a Mole.

You can think of it overall just like this nursery song:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&…

  1. Ok…ok I forgot the 3rd reason but I am sure it will come back to me in due time.

Now…I am going to refrain from posting monthly or YTD results for a while. And the reason for that to is simple: I doubt anyone would believe them anyway; However, that said, while I don’t want to put them out on the board - if I know you from posting stuff, I will be happy to send you a snapshot of my YTDs from my Fidelity Account via an email. Just send me an email and I will return the snapshot to you.
It will look a lot like this: YTD + percentage of gain or loss.

So thats that.

Just before I left for our trip I had sold a bunch of TBs to raise cash. Today I put it all back into the market with double sized TBs. The portfolio roster looks like this:

A) STARTERS

  1. DDOG - Portfolio Franchise

  2. Bill

  3. MDB

  4. SNOW

  5. S

B) The Bench

  1. ZS

  2. MELI - Yeah…Yeah…Yeah back into MELi for the umpteenth time this year when it sank below $620.

C) Scout Team

  1. UPST - Added it back when it sank below $33 after I had sold it in the mid forties. Out of favor just now and all the rates and Apple’s move to BNPL isn’t helping. Still…the very next UPST ER is a crucible of sorts with a lot of moving parts; which, if they come together in the right way could propel UPST back toward the heights. Or something like that.

  2. AMD - Added at $86.75 or so. Why? This roster addition is a little outside of what I normally look for; but, three of the top services I subscribe to are sky high on the company and looking at its most recent ER along with its Chart give me confidence. Possibly this is a nice setup for a short term trading position. We’ll see.

  3. DOCN - Between 5/11 and 5/27 DOCN had a nice little rally pushing it up over 20%. When I added that to some analysis from a service I follow I decided to get back in at what may be a low point. We’ll see I suppose.

Now…last thing I suppose. There are a number of folks whose strategy is to be 100% invested at all time. In Bull runs this can’t be beat as we all know that the Fool’s best investors have proven that intelligent stock picking works. However, consider this for a moment: If you are a retired person and taking out profits to live on - that means essentially that not only do you have massive losses on the year - but, you also have to sell shares for your expenses…right? When you sell shares to meet the bills that means those shares have been liquidated never to have the chance to appreciate again. When the loss of those shares is combined with the overall market losses this year then overall losses become even more staggering.

What I am trying to say here - is that if you are a young investor and can weather the storm with decades of additional career earnings to live on - then waiting for the market to return to its growth stock glory is simply a test of will, patience and commitment. On the other hand, if you are nearing retirement or already retired then things are a little more dicey to wit:

It might be better to meet/exceed expenses with Dividend paying stocks and then once the is taken care of - then go to the mats with high growth. And that’s exactly what my wife and I do: her Roth is chock full of stocks that pay us - some monthly - in amounts that exceed our general expenses by a factor of almost 2x1. Which allows me to use the 401K I have for aggressive growth gain and glory - such as that might be. While this is perhaps seen as heresy by the high growth purists among us - I would remind everyone of a standard Market rule which simply says: Don’t fight the Tape. My comment addends to that with - unless you can afford to and sleep well at night.

All the Best,

14 Likes
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Hey Michael/Champ

appreciate all your posts! When you have a chance, no rush, could you post some of your best dividend stocks?

all the best,
andy

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Hi Andy:

Originally I used the Wife’s Roth to set up our income portfolio and since both my career and family businesses were centered around Real Estate we started the Roth with REITS. Please keep in mind that I was just as dumb and oblivious to the nuances of investing in income producing companies back then as I am now with growth - and probably more so.

I used the same general strategy to build the income port as I do with growth: I follow a number of folks who actually seem to know what they are doing with the initial service being ran by a guy named Brad Thomas on SA. Over time I added guys who understood and covered BDC’s and in the last couple of years since the port was handed of to the wife - she added a service ran by Rida Morwa.

The original REITS still held are:

O
WPC
STOR
STAG
MPW
DLR
IRM
PSA

From there is just branched out over time to include a variety of dividend payers which now include a mixture of Preferred, CEFs, and the REITs:

PTY
PDI
PDO
RLJ-A
NLY
XFLT
OXCL
AGNC
RILYL
CGBD
BCSF
HTGC
TSLX
CSWC
AM
ARI
USA
ATAX
ARCC
BXSL
ORCC
THW
ECC
GLP
RTLR
DFP
CCD
ACRE
BRSP
HQH
TPVG
SLRC
CAPL
AWP
OCSL
FDUS
IVRPRC
GMLPF
CMRE-E
EPD
DMLP
ARR-C
BPYPP
CEQP
CIM-C
DRH-A
TWO-C

Currently YOC is slightly above 10.5% and most of these appear to be decent to really good buys just now. Note that this is a set-and-forget type portfolio and many of these companies have been in the portfolio for over a decade. Since we have not had to dip into this group we just roll the dividends over into additional shares with the idea being that the income will just keep growing until some day we may need it. We originally intended to build the portfolio to cover our living expenses once I retired but has since about doubled that number - so that in lieu of complete disaster we would never have to sell a single share to cover living costs. Sort of self perpetuating.

Note: In any real disaster some of these companies will - and have in the past - cut or eliminate their dividends which is another reason we allowed the fund to double our needs and continue to build over time.

The All-Too-Lovely has been running it now for about 3-4 years with me looking in on it occasionally. Interestingly enough - albeit only to me, over the last four years or so the growth port sprinted out to dwarf the income port; however, that gap has now closed some. While I do not report the results of the Wife’s income Roth - there is no doubt in my mind that I wouldn’t be as bold as I am with the growth port if the income port did not exist.

Hope that helps.

All the Best,

11 Likes
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Excellent!!
Thanks a bunch

1 Like
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I can see Rida’a influence in your wife’s picks. While his picks have been hard hit, like everything else, since the beginning of the year, I trust his intentions.

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I started looking at these stocks and I thought that I’d never be able to follow even half of them. I couldn’t come close to replicating anything like what you guys have. If you were to buy an ETF of a similar nature do you have any that you’ve looked at?

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Hi Jgxoxo:

She used to be really big on that REIT guy Brad Thomas but for some reason has decided she likes Rida better. Lately she talks about BDCs but I don’t know enough about them to be of much help; although, it does seem like BDCs would not be the best place to park your investments in given the potential for a recession. That didn’t stop her though.

All the Best,

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Hi SonnyD:

I don’t keep up with it all that much - but, I do know there are Preferred Share ETFs out there that may make a lot of sense if you are building an income portfolio. I just don’t know any specifics.

All the Best,

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You’re right about the BDC’s. I’ve recently been backing out of them to some extent. I follow Rida for my IRA where I’m trying to collect income that exceeds my RMD’s. Thanks for replying!

1 Like