I am surprised there’s been almost no talk about this, I find it to be highly unusual, and possibly hughly consequential. I’m talking about the use of the word “concerns” which came up in the summit between Xi and Putin a few days ago.
Generally these things are choreographed well in advance so nothing embarrassing happens, the grunt work and negotiating is done by underlings and the big boys show up to sign some papers and smile for the camera. That’s why the admission by Putin of “concerns” is such a flag for me.
I’ll bet Putin has some real concerns, like “How do I get out of this and save face?” (It’s the LBJ problem, all over again.)
The word even comes up while he’s talking with Modi in India:
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to seek peace in Ukraine, following China in expressing concern about the almost seven-month-old conflict roiling the global economy. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-16/putin-tel…
Generally the stagecraft and statecraft is done ahead of time so you don’t get comments like the one Modi is said to have told Putin: “Today’s era is not one for war.” Modi, I would guess, was not standing near an open window when he said it.
With the shutdown of any/all political boards, topics, even worldwide situations, much less national concerns, it has stymied all discussions here on TMF… Maybe still going on Discord, but…
Vladivostok, which connects with the Trans-Siberian Railway.
That might work for getting munitions to the front, but if you think the front is chaotic now, imagine it with 100,000 Koreans who don’t speak a word of Russian trying to coordinate with mixed forces made from the motely collection of constituents the Russians are currently sending to the front.
There is no political advantage to either China or India to overtly show their support for another country making a land grab. What happens sub-rosa for their nation’s best interest is not somethiing to flaunt right now.
There is no political advantage to either China or India to overtly show their support for another country making a land grab.
Of course not. You use a proxy. The Chinese used the NVA and VC in Nam. The US used the Mujahedin in Afghanistan.
For those who missed it, the Wagner Group is reportedly recruiting in Russian prisons.
Putin Ally Dismisses Criticism of Prisoners Fighting War: ‘Send’ Your Kids
The Wagner Military Group, an elite paramilitary force that has been linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and sent mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, has made the pitch to Russian prisoners, news outlets reported on Thursday.
“If you serve six months [in Wagner], you are free,” he said, according to the BBC. However, he cautioned that “if you arrive in Ukraine and decide it’s not for you, we will execute you.”
It’s a short ocean voyage from North Korea to Vladivostok, which connects with the Trans-Siberian Railway.
My father’s family emigrated from Europe to Venezuela over the Trans-Siberian Railway, Vladivostok, Yokohama, Panama Canal, Caracas, arriving on September 17, 1939. My father told me the Moscow metro is absolutely gorgeous!
Surprise. The two most populous nations on earth probably are not too enthusiastic about the massive food inflation and insecurity that the war in Ukraine has created.
Also, agreed that the public airing of these “concerns” is absolutely the Chinese way of putting space between China and Russia without being overtly negative.
I’ll bet Putin has some real concerns, like “How do I get out of this and save face?” (It’s the LBJ problem, all over again.)
Perhaps it’s more like “How do I get out of this and retain my inflated ego?”
Taking a high road would be pretty simple, although exceedingly distasteful to someone like Putin. Immediately cease all hostilities in Ukraine, remove your military to the previous borders, and open your border to all those “ethnic Russians” he was trying to save from the “horrors” of living in Ukraine.
Negotiate a renewed lease for the port in Sevastopol, or just keep it for a while longer with a promise to leave in something like 10 years, and start building your own port on your own territory along the Black Sea. There’s a lot of coastline between the border with Georgia and the border with Ukraine. There must be somewhere along there that would make a good base for your Black Sea fleet.
But doing that would diminish his personal perception of himself as a powerful man. He would have to admit to his own mistakes. And in his own mind, he has none.
He can’t even admit that his advisors misled him, as that means he made the mistake of listening to them. All he can do is make sure there are plenty of open windows and gentle breezes that seem to blow his failed advisors out of those open windows.
Unfortunately, I see no real way out for Putin. The best he can do is declare victory, remove the bulk of his army from Eastern Ukraine, get his sharpie out to redraw the Russian border around some bit of land formerly part of Ukraine, and try to forget this all happened. But I don’t think the world will let him forget. And perhaps his people won’t let him forget either. He could even end up being treated as the Bolsheviks treated the Romanovs, although that is probably a long shot at best. More likely might be a palace coup, with his inner circle closing in on him. That could be beneficial to lots of people around Russia and the world.
