I hate FOMO.
I guess I am supposed to believe that suddenly NET is worth 18% more today, and that everyone should be up 10% and all the selling and drawdowns are over.
Let’s just get right back to being very overvalued vs just plain ol’ overvalued.
Ok.
Who believes this is it, and it is all sunshine, unicorns, rainbows, and unlimited pez dispensers for everyone?
- This is it…blastoff! Gonna make 100-200% again!
- I am cautiously optimistic the bottom was earlier this week.
- No idea. I am just a broken toy now.
- Such a bear rally move. Just getting BTFDers back in, then crushing them later!
An attempt at perspective brought to you by a “broken toy”. If you are down as I am, you will never recover by holding cash. You will be looking at Thursday and Friday and think that your opportunity was lost, you missed the bargain price. Fear is present because Monday could bring a down 10% (which it certainly could).
Maybe sometimes price anchoring is (if not good) a useful crutch. I have a tattered, folded in half piece of paper with some rainbow colors where a glass of cold beverage once rested and the condensed water from the humid air wetted the ink that displays come stock symbols and two columns of prices. I have been using it as a mouse pad, off and on, for apparently two months. I also have an Excel spreadsheet entitled “KC’s Boneheaded Sales”. Those of you who follow my every move (sarcasm) will remember my posting about this. March 17, according to my forensic analysis of the stock prices, I woke up in the night and sold the Hell out of my portfolio, selling into a rally. A rally which continued up a week or more depending upon the stock. It took a month for those prices to return to my sales price and then…, well, you know about the last 30 days or so.
After this two-day rally it is natural to regret missing the “bottom”. But, this piece of paper reminds that the prices of Friday’s close are still significantly below March 17’s. UPST was sold then at $114. DDOG at $133. GLBE at $33. CRWD at $198. ZS at $210. You get the picture. AFRM was sold at $36 and even after the monster pop is at $20.46.
As a broken toy, I do not know what I will do next week. But at least I have this piece of paper to remind me that I can repurchase those companies at a deep discount. Maybe it is a dangerous bit of information to lure me back into the crushing zone. But that is the dilemma of the market timer, and I cannot avoid that tag. We cannot predict the next 4 weeks. The prices will be whatever they will be. The real question, for beyond 4 weeks, is whether or not I still like these stocks. The psychological question for the next 4 weeks is whether or not the market will still be liking these stocks. (ZS reports AMC on May 26…)
Just saying that not catching Wednesday prices means only that you missed two days of rally buried within a 6 month crater. Take a longer look back and find some perspective as you simultaneously look forward to decide whether this is a good price for your companies over your investment horizon.
Broken Toy
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Great post, KC, and wise words!
I note on the poll that Broken Toys has the lead, followed by cynics.
A couple on-the-fence bulls remain, and 1 dude (lady?) is, like, totally optimistic.
Actually - that could all be viewed bullishly, as a counter-trend sentiment. When everyone is more or less feeling defeated, the end may be nigh.
Dreamer
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Just saying that not catching Wednesday prices means only that you missed two days of rally buried within a 6 month crater. Take a longer look back and find some perspective as you simultaneously look forward to decide whether this is a good price for your companies over your investment horizon.
Geez.
Them hyper-growth thingies are down again.
https://tenor.com/view/willy-wonka-stop-dont-come-back-dont-…
Dreamer ← POMO fan