The Simon Sez HA Paradox

Investing Strategies Technical Trader's Sanctuary
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@Quillnpenn @Arindam So Charlie suggested I take a Simon Sez and go back a year and mark all the buys indicated by Simon Sez. So I tried and the first chart I choose was CMG because it is a great stock that had been on a good run and probably had lots of good buy signal.

Scrolling to the left to see the past showed lots of buy signals. Or did it. Turns out they were ghosts and did not exist on the chart the day they would have been signals, therefore did not exist as a Simon Sez buy signal.

In the screen shots blow, I mark the smiley faces with numbers, where 1 is the first one nearest today and 8 is the one farthest back in time, where I stopped. It is fascinating. Remember, in order for the smiley face to be a signal, it must be on the chart when that bar is on the right edge of the chart. That is, it must be “today” in the time period you are looking at. I may not have explained it well, but the screen shots will show it.

Here is the first one, and it is the current chart ending today.

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It looks like #1 was somewhere I could have bought when it signaled me back on 4/22. Ok, so lets go back left (past) and see what happens. As we go back in time, the smiley face on 4/22 disappears, it was never then when we could have used it.
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No worries, now #2 has a smiley face for us to act on. But lets scroll back a bit and see it as it might had been in real-time.

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Oops, it is gone. No worries, #3 has just seemed to alert us, so let’s scroll back on that…
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Oops, gone again. #4 looks promising
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Nope, did not exist in real time.
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But #5 looks good.
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Nope, but #6 looks good
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Nope, but #7 looks good
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Nope, but #8 looks good.
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So let’s go back a little bit and verity #8

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Eureka! #8 really exists as new bars are appearing to the right of it. So we had 1 buy signal in October of 2023.

Am I doing something terribly wrong? Maybe I am tired and missing the obvious, I have done that before. What is the deal?

I seems that if you take improper screenshots of a chart like this, then say “See, if you bought after that smiley face, you would have made good money”. But that seems like accidental false advertising with this data.

Pete

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Pete did you make money on #8? If that is the only one you see than you wouldn’t have lost money on the others. The only ones that matter are the ones you would have bought into when they showed up. If you would have won that’s great but if you would have lost, that’s bad.

Andy

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Andy, I did not make money last October on #8. I have purchased based on the rules and thanks to today, am up a tiny percentage since I started recently.

My point is that I feel like I have been shown charts and said "see, you would have made money there, and there and there. But when I look “there” the smiley face did not exist in real time. That is, my perception of the number of opportunities was distorted.

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I look at it differently. I look at the ones that would have been “True” signs at the time and say to myself what would I have done. If I would have bought, what would have I done when I sold. Would I have been whipsawed or made money? All the ones that are mirages do not even matter because I never would have seen them or traded them at the time. They are irrelevant IMHO. Also when using Simon keep your stops close when you first put on your trade, The point is to lose very little when you lose. It’s the winners you want to let run. At least that is the way I look at it. If I hit 2 out of 10 I will be happy as long as my losses are very small.

Andy

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re: CMG -
re: Simon Sez III rules
re: Business Plan
re: 6 P’s

Would you happen to have a Business Plan that needs to be followed daily?

Summarizing Simon’s Sez III rules via OHLC Stockcharts.com

  1. Buy the first GREEN bar after the price label only

  2. Sell the first RED bar after the price label. If the GREEN bar ( caution ) wait and wait for the RED bar.

Going to show a bunch of data for CMG you mentioned going back 1 year.
In doing so, I will show the IN Price and the Out price if I had owned CMQ.

So far I was batting a thousand percent. 12 for 12 successful trades with ZERO losses.

Going to include a chart for the beginning and a chart for the tail end or current position.

I have been Swing Trading with the above for over 48 years. Swing Trading a six-pack of stocks day in and day out. I also own all of the 12 SPDR’s eg…xle, xlk, xrt etc. since 2006. I also manage my wife’s matrix with Ellevest.com run by women and for women since 2007 when I got laid off that year.

I have studied hundreds and hundreds of "Chart of the Day ‘’ for several years and reviewed the last sentence "Trend Seekers data ‘’. Barchart produces daily Trend Seekers charts in my email box every morning with options of jumping in on the next BUY signal and continuing for a nice profit and out. These guys do all the work and I just piggyback them.

I would recommend that you review the below Buy and Out (sell) time stamps on top of the charts you are looking at for comparison.

CMG :

  1. Buy - 03/03/23
  2. Out - 05/23/23
  3. Buy - 06/08/23
  4. Out - 07/05/23
  5. Buy - 07/17/23
  6. Out - 07/19/23
  7. Buy - 08/06/23
  8. Out - 09/11/23
  9. Buy - 10/16/23
    10.Out - 12/14/23
    11.Buy - 12/18/23
    12.Out - 12/21/23
    13.Buy - 01/10/24
    14.Out - 02/08/24
    15.Buy - 02/22/24
    16.Out - 03/05/24
    17.Buy - 03/12/24
    18.Out - 03/21/24
    19.But - 04/05/24
    20.Out - 04/12/24
    21.Buy - 04/22/24
    22.Out - 05/13/24
    23.Buy - 06/05/24
    24.Out - 06/10/24
    25.Buy - 06/12/24
    25.Out -

The 6 P’s apply - Proper Preparation Prevents P*ss Poor Performance

For fun, back on Apil 27, 2023, I bought 1000 shares at $60.00 of RCL for our family Kruz to Bermuda on June 1st, 2024 for a 5-night adventure and fun for 6 Adults and 4 grandkids on my dyme. Sold RCL on June 6th, 2024 at $155.50. All other 8 members in the family group (18) were on their own dyme.

https://www.cruisemapper.com/

  1. Buy - 04/27/23
  2. Out - 06/20/23
  3. Buy - 07/17/23
  4. Out - 07/31/23
  5. Buy - 10/30/23
  6. Out - 01/02/24
  7. But - 01/04/24
  8. Out - 02/02/24
  9. Buy - 02/22/24
    10.Out - 04/05/24
    11.Buy - 04/17/24
    12.Out - 06/06/24 - Home

My charts and my technique may be different from yours, however, Charlie always says CHEF’s CHOICE.

BUSINESS PLAN 101

What in the werld is the Werld’s Perfect Business?

If You could Describe The Werld’s Perfect Business

  1. It would have:

Flexible ( 1-2 hours a day)
No employees
No Inventory
No Selling of any kind
No customers,
No Receivables and no Bad Debts.
No competitors
Recession-proof
Low start-up capital (+5,000)

  1. It would require:

No Business travel, although if you choose to travel, you can take your business with you anywhere in the world!

No other business is this flexible!

  1. Affordable and Secure:

Your start-up funds are liquid and secure and available daily. What you earn today is in your account today.

  1. It has Realistic Hours:

The financial world’s hours are Monday through Friday excluding all legal holidays from 9:30 am to 4:15 pm EST.

  1. Unlimited:

The werlds perfect business is limited only by your imagination and desire … this truly is the American Dream!
This industry gives you lifelong security and independence and you are your boss!

rewritten from 3/2/2007 notes.

Quillnpenn

BUSINESS MODELS

Business Model - Equity Warehouse

Equities are Inventory to be Managed, just like auto parts or plumbing supplies.

What is the Warehouse function?

  1. maintain inventory to satisfy demand at a profit.
  2. maintain liquidity to build inventory at fair prices.

repeating…

Your Trading Plan is your Business Plan!

Who are you: An Inventory Manager

What do you do: Director of Inventory Management

Job Description: Directing the flow of Stock in the Warehouse from Incoming to Outgoing.

Place of employment: Your Laptop or your PC is the Warehouse.

Name of my company: “xxxxxxxx Equity Warehouse”

Quillnpenn

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CMG
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CMG (1)
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RCL
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1 Like
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@Quillnpenn thank you for the response. I guess the disconnect here is that your were teaching me the approach for your 10-year old grandson, which I thought was using the frowny and simley faces. As the screen shot below shows, the trigger dates you listed were not triggers under that methodology.

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The smiley face at #1 was not really there on the 2 month HA charts I thought I was supposed to use.

I take it that if I started using Simon Sez 111, I would be getting more buy opportunities? In SS111, we look at the price labels as applied by StockCharts.com instead of using HA bars and barchart.com?

I am having trouble getting price labels at StockCharts.com, do I need to subscribe to apply those?

Thanks for you teaching.

Pete

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No subscription is necessary. Just check the ‘price labels’ box.

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It get’s very confusing using Barcharts then Stockcharts then TOS then IBD then…

Your charts in this post look like Barcharts and just as a reminder, the smiley faces and frowny faces are just the posted highs and lows. Nothing calculated.

As Arindam posted, the Price Labels just have to be clicked on in the chart functions at the bottom. Note, they are proprietary and derived. You might be interested in that they are basically identical to the ZigZag indicator. If you go to Stockcharts and apply ZigZag, they will essentially match Price Labels. Or have for years. However, Stockcharts in ACP, their Zigzag default is set at 6.93% but in Sharpcharts, it’s set at 3.75%. Just to add to the confusion.

CMG
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Happy hunting,
Lakedog

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RE: price labels -thanks, got it.
RE: @Quillnpenn CMG chart

  • I tried to recreate in stockcharts.com, which it seems you are using. I set it to 9 months, which looked like what you did, but not quite. There are two price labels missing on mine (see red font) that would prevent me from replicating your success. Any ideas as to why? Also, like in barcharts.com, if you change the time period, the location of price labels will change. Exactly which time period do you use on a daily basis when making a buy or sell decision?

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1 month with different price labels…

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Much thanks to all again.

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Pete,

click on the following :

https://discussion.fool.com/t/simon-sez-iii-in-review/90365

Please scroll down to the 38 points on how to set up a fixed Simon Sez default chart from now on.

But, let’s try this first as an attempt to get to the price label to show up on you charts.

  1. click on the top left corner just left of the chart name
  2. next click on the icon to the right of the stock name
  3. leave everything for now alone but check off the Price Labels at the bottom.
  4. click on close
  5. click on the top left Icon again.

Now at the top black URL bar. The farthest Icon checkerboard pattern will be your default chart name. Every once in a while, a strange chart shows up, click on the icon and it will then default to your layouts ( mine is called Simon).

On the far right black vertical URL, click on the second Icon to create your watchlists. They should default to your named chart. Sometimes the strange chart shows up, click on the top URL 4squaared icon to get your correct type of chart.

All the software, books, computers, and supplies you are using are TAX deductible so long as you declare you are an INVESTOR if you are retired or unemployed on your 1040 tax form going forward.

Talk to your TAX attorney or CPA for assistance in this matter.

The second set of charts you show are stock charts fast-paced price labeling charts that are too close to each other.

Once you got the technique down pat, you will be a very wealthy person.

I have been trying to send a spreadsheet, but, not allowed. There has to be another way.

My trading times are at 10 am after the smoke clears and again at 3:30 pm when traders start buying stocks for the next day. Before 10 am I work on my Dividend portfolio folder to see how much money I made in the morning… The rest of the day I read intelligent reports and looking at the chart of the day. for ideas on Barchart. The rest of the day I am a Caregiver to my wife all day from 7 am to 1 am EST 7 days a week.

I wish you the best,

Quill

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Okay Pete,

Hang on to Simon Sez’s coat tails and you shall be a very very Healthy Wealthy person.

We have a test today for you.

Todays Chart Of The Day is NTAP. What do you do today per the two (2) simple rules mentioned yesterday.

re: stockcharts. . . . . Next look at FLRT and SEIX. Most easiest stocks to trade and earn a very nice Divi check monthly for being a nice person. ;o)) Impossible to blow it. You do, you get detention plus 20 push ups… ;o)).

See ya around the campus.
Quill -

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If you have spare time with nothing to do and learn more stuff.

Re: $ETHUSD
re: Simon Sez iii rules.
re: STOCKCHARTS.
re: egg timer set for 3 hours and 58 minutes as an alarm clock.

Using the 4 hour chart one can earn a few bux all day long, day in and day out. We would call it Semi- Day Trading while working on other projects.

Again, stick with Simon’s OHLC charts, rules and you shall be a very wealthy person over tyme.

Charts Don’t Lie, people do.

Investing is a Business and it must be treated as such, win lose or draw.

Quill - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 48 years.

ps. when viewing the charts for the first few seconds, click on the far right arrow black box at the bottom to center the chart then make adjustments for a better view bigger or smaller or drag it around to your comfort.

Take your tyme learning on the fly.

![$ETHUSD|690x440](upload://9Vucm1XRwUORz1CZNi1kyPCAc5t.jpeghttps://stockcharts.com/

current list of Cryptocurrencies | StockCharts.com

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$ETHUSD
$ETHUSD1920×1226 98.4 KB

[quote=“Quillnpenn, post:13, topic:106060, full:true”]
If you have spare time with nothing to do and learn more stuff.

Re: $ETHUSD
re: Simon Sez iii rules.
re: STOCKCHARTS.
re: egg timer set for 3 hours and 58 minutes as an alarm clock.

Using the 4 hour chart one can earn a few bux all day long, day in and day out. We would call it Semi- Day Trading while working on other projects.

Again, stick with Simon’s OHLC charts, rules and you shall be a very wealthy person over tyme.

Charts Don’t Lie, people do.

Investing is a Business and it must be treated as such, win lose or draw.

Quill - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 48 years.

ps. when viewing the charts for the first few seconds, click on the far right arrow black box at the bottom to center the chart then make adjustments for a better view bigger or smaller or drag it around to your comfort.

Take your tyme learning on the fly.

![$ETHUSD|690x440](upload://9Vucm1XRwUORz1CZNi1kyPCAc5t.jpeghttps://stockcharts.com/

[quote=“Quillnpenn, post:13, topic:106060, full:true”]
If you have spare time with nothing to do and learn more stuff.

Re: $ETHUSD
re: Simon Sez iii rules.
re: STOCKCHARTS.
re: egg timer set for 3 hours and 58 minutes as an alarm clock.

Using the 4 hour chart one can earn a few bux all day long, day in and day out. We would call it Semi- Day Trading while working on other projects.

Again, stick with Simon’s OHLC charts, rules and you shall be a very wealthy person over tyme.

Charts Don’t Lie, people do.

Investing is a Business and it must be treated as such, win lose or draw.

Quill - a poor church mouse scratching for a living as a Swing Trader for over 48 years.

ps. when viewing the charts for the first few seconds, click on the far right arrow black box at the bottom to center the chart then make adjustments for a better view bigger or smaller or drag it around to your comfort.

Take your tyme learning on the fly.

$ethusd chart if it the chart does not pop up.
![$ETHUSD|690x440](upload://9Vucm1XRwUORz1CZNi1kyPCAc5t.jpeghttps://stockcharts.com/

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Quill,

Kudos to you for that trade on RCL. But it clearly wasn’t done using the Simon Sez system. Also, you let prices move against you hugely last Fall.

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Such a chart does suggest a way to control ‘risk’, namely, get in and out as the MAs cross each other. Net-profits would be roughly the same, but exposure would be reduced.

Charlie.

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Pete,

I, too, spent the last three days trying to discover when a trading system based on just confirmed Hi/Lo flags might work. My conclusions?

#1, Requiring that trend changes be signaled by a Low flag eliminates too many buying opportunities.

#2, A green doji HA bar that follows a flagged as ‘Lookback Low’ red HA bar does NOT create confirmation, especially if prices don’t close ABOVE a trailing MA.

#3, A 4-day time stop leaves a lot of money on the table, but saves even more grief. But, in general, as long as prices continue to print above a trailing MA and StochRSI continues to show an ‘Over-bought’ condition, it’s probably safe to continue to hold the position.

#4, Quill doesn’t so much have “a system” as HE IS THE SYSTEM. A person could make a ton of money if he/she could shadow what Quill does, exactly when he does it. But trying to follow his explanations of what he does is likely to be frustrating. Hence, buying breakouts and selling breakdowns --if that’s what one wants to do-- can be done but is more likely to be successful if one builds one’s own charts and writes one’s own rules.

Charlie

2 Likes
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All, thanks for the support and references for setting up SimonSez3 in Stockcharts.com Here is how I did it in graphics because words confuse me :wink:

First, know that you must have a subscription in order to save templates and charts to watch lists. $30/month.

Second, I did find that the price labels are not changing as I zoom in and out of time periods.

Go to stockcharts.com and click on “Charts and Tools” and then the ACP tile…

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Here are some of the tools/icons you need to use and understand…

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Clean up the junk from the default chart…

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Update some chart settings for SS3. OHLC, Price bars…

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Scroll down for a few more settings: colors, events, alerts…

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Add the 200 dma (exponential) Indicator…

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Template is ready, so save it…

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Now you are ready to use your template, now or next time you login. Access it like this…

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@Quillnpenn
Did I get this right?

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Excellent job. The hardest part is the set up procedures.
Now post your master piece for a final grade and you start a successful journey velcoming you to the millionaires club.

1 Like
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Pete,

Your favourite stock CMG

The stock to BUY: Chipotle

Mexican fast-food giant Chipotle Mexican Grill ([CMG]

(Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Price, News & Info | The Motley Fool) -0.74%) is set to undergo a 50-for-1 stock split, effective June 26, 2024. While the split will drop individual share prices from the $3,155 range to approximately $63, the true appeal lies in the company’s robust fundamentals and growth prospects.

Come June 26th, backing up the truck on CMG.

Quill -

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