Who profits from an Iran War?

Let’s add that to the list of shady stuff. Before you go into an area and kill a bunch of civilians, you gotta discuss your plan with others. Otherwise you just look like a genocidal dick.

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Not really.

People are not saying that about Russia in Ukraine. That is a genocide.

Hamas found they could use the Western press. The suggestion of genocide worked with the liberals.

Trump suggested to the conservatives Mexico would pay for the wall. That worked.

Message boards were invented as a social place to do better than that.

The US is not committed to a genocide. You are making my point.

Although our internal future is bleak.

The Muslim nation umbrella to organizations is committed to a globalcide of anyone not Muslim enough.

Our journalists, editors, and publishers think such a source is worthwhile. Just innocently skipping through life selling ad space.

I gave up on the Tesla/Elon haters. I won’t be waisting my time on this either but there are some good posters here that might not know this tidbit. I found out only recently, guess where? On the Internet. One needs a BS filter not to miss the good stuff.

The Pareto at work, 20% Pearls, 80% Pigs [PPP] ©

:clown_face:

The Captain

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Does silence mean agreement? It seems so.

8 months ago:

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Khamenei has entrusted key responsibilities to a trusted and experienced aide.

Ali Larijani is no stranger to Iran’s power structure. A former commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a seasoned political operator, he has held several influential roles over the years.

Currently, Larijani is reported to be overseeing multiple high-stakes areas, including:

  • Managing internal security and protest responses
  • Coordinating nuclear negotiations with the United States
  • Strengthening strategic ties with allies such as Russia

Iranian succession in place. Khamenei willing to die? Or is this a game of chicken?

the U.S. strike on Iran, or Operation Midnight Hammer, has also set in motion two consequences that run directly counter to his vision of coercing Iran into submission.

First, the brief U.S.-Iran dustup following Operation Midnight Hammer communicated to Iran that while Washington was now more likely to pull the trigger, it was by no means eager to enter a costly and open-ended firefight. Indeed, it did not escape the attention of the Iranians that while the Trump administration warned Tehran that any Iranian response to Operation Midnight Hammer would trigger a devastating U.S. response, Iran’s ballistic missile retaliation against U.S. bases in Qatar elicited not Trump’s wrath but his framing of the episode as an opportunity to move toward “peace and harmony.” This was then promptly followed by his brokering of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Second, the joint U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in June liberated Iran from its own fear of total war. In the months and years leading up to the 12-Day War, Tehran’s intoxicating belief that war could and should be avoided — at every turn and at any cost — had infused the Iranian decision-making apparatus with a paralyzing caution that, on the one hand, deterred Iran from retaliating decisively against Israeli attacks while at the same time emboldened Israel to repeatedly push the limits of escalation with impunity.

But that edifice of fear would collapse under the weight of Israel’s war on Iran in June 2025, and the United States’ direct participation in that war. In its place emerged a sober recognition that Iran was no longer standing on the brink of a war it could prevent but was already fully immersed in a recurring cycle of limited Israeli and American wars inside Iranian territory.

Iran’s generals understood that the only reliable way to conclusively break that cycle was to drive the confrontation beyond Washington’s comfortable terrain of swift, manageable military interventions and into a realm where the costs of continued escalation would become unbearable for the United States and Israel alike. In the recent warning of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, “If they start a war this time,” he cautioned, “it will be a regional war.”

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Khamenei does not know what he is doing.

The Arabs are not going to help him. Russia is not going to help him. China won’t help. God would never admit having anything to do with him.

The Iranian government needs to be overthrown.

We already did that once. The guy’s name was Mosaddegh. They ended up with the Shah for a while, and we know what happened after that.

Point being, we aren’t good at building new governments. Iran, Chile, Vietnam, Afghanistan…all ended up being contrary to what we wanted (long term). If we meddle in Iran (again), we have no assurance things will improve relative to the current situation.

However, to answer the thread question, I’ll quote Carlin: “the owners”.

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As dictators go the Shah wasn’t the worst. A wider look is needed. Muslim countries have tried to go secular something Christian countries have managed to do but Islam has been relentless. The Young Turks managed it and Erdogan is trying to revert back to Sharia.

Google AI:

While President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has significantly expanded the role of religion in Turkish public life, Turkey remains constitutionally a secular state. Sharia law was formally abolished in 1924, and despite recent shifts, it has not been reinstated as the legal framework.

The current situation involves a complex push-and-pull between the secular foundations laid by the “Young Turks” and Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and the more conservative vision of the current government:

  • Secular Constitution: Turkey’s constitution still defines the country as a secular state, providing for freedom of conscience and prohibiting discrimination based on religion. Erdogan has publicly stated that he does not intend to change the first four articles of the constitution, which include the principle of secularism.
  • Expansion of Religious Influence: Under Erdoğan’s leadership, there has been a notable increase in the influence of Sunni Islam in state institutions. This includes:
    • Education: A greater emphasis on religious studies in schools and the proliferation of İmam Hatip (religious) schools.
    • Public Life: Lifting bans on religious attire (like headscarves) in public services, the military, and the judiciary.
    • Symbolic Shifts: The 2020 conversion of the historic Hagia Sophia from a museum back into a mosque.
  • Rhetoric vs. Law: In early 2024 and continuing into 2026, Erdoğan has defended Sharia in speeches, arguing that “hostility to Sharia is hostility to Islam”. However, critics and legal analysts note that this rhetoric often serves as a political tool to mobilize his conservative base rather than a direct move to replace the civil code.
  • Public Sentiment: Recent studies indicate that a large majority of the Turkish population (around 81% in 2020) continues to favour a secular and democratic government over one based on Sharia law.

In summary, while the government has moved away from the “strict secularism” of the early 20th century, the legal system remains grounded in European civil law rather than Sharia.

The war between conquering Islam and the West has been ongoing since 622:

Google AI:

Key Historical Phases

  • Early Conquests (622–750 CE): Following the Hijra in 622, early Islamic states rapidly expanded across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Iberian Peninsula, often at the expense of the Byzantine and Sasanian Empires.
  • The Crusades (1095–1291 CE): A series of religious wars initiated by the Latin Churchto regain control of the Holy Land, specifically Jerusalem.
  • The Reconquista (711–1492 CE): A long-term military campaign by Christian kingdoms to retake the Iberian Peninsula, ending with the fall of Granada in 1492.
  • Ottoman Expansion (14th–17th Century): The Ottoman Empire expanded into Southeastern Europe, notably capturing Constantinople in 1453 and twice laying siege to Vienna.
  • Colonialism and Modern Era (18th Century–Present): European powers colonized much of the Muslim world, leading to new forms of political and cultural tension, including 20th-century independence movements and contemporary geopolitical conflicts.

This is not going to go away any time soon!

The Captain

You are underestimating the Persians. You are overestimating the Muslim Nationalists.

Iran wants this.

We are not at war with Islam.

The Muslims are not Muslim enough according to Muslim Nationalists. Those folks are the only people constantly at war. Most Muslims are scared of them.

Keep deluding yourself!

The Captain

Most of them. But it still hasn’t happened since 1979. Keep in mind that the Socialist Worker’s Party in Germany only got about 32% in 1932, but were able to parlay that into a dictatorship run by them. And they aren’t the only example.

It’s one thing to want it. It’s another to put your life on the line (which is what they would be doing) to get it. Especially after how their recent revolt was put down (potentially up to 35K dead).

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150k have died so far this month.

There must be a group in the Pentagon that is tasked with thinking up names for weapons. Sometimes they hit a bullseye.

A group of Block 52 F-16CJ Vipers belonging to the South Carolina Air National Guard was recently spotted heading east across the Atlantic as part of a huge build-up of U.S. forces ahead of potential strikes on Iran. Each of the Vipers was notably seen carrying an Angry Kitten pod, a new electronic warfare system that helps defend against anti-air threats, and that may now be headed for its first use in real combat…

Angry Kitten has a very different story from other electronic warfare pods in U.S. military service. It is a direct outgrowth of the AN/ALQ-167, a series of pods primarily used to mimic hostile electronic warfare threats for training and testing purposes for decades…

The development of Angry Kitten, which dates back to the early 2010s, was originally focused on providing improved electronic warfare capabilities for testing and training use, especially by aggressors playing the role of ‘red air’ adversaries. However, the potential value of the new pods as operational assets to help protect friendly aircraft quickly became apparent. The ability to rapidly adapt the pods in training to provide different effects simulating enemy systems, in particular, opened the door to a much more agile electronic system for use on real-world missions.

DB2

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Hmm. Sounds like an AI application…

Unlike the older AN/ALQ-167s, Angry Kitten is designed to be more readily modifiable and updatable to more rapidly adapt in parallel with the threat ecosystem…

In general, electronic warfare systems need to be able to accurately detect, categorize, and respond to waveforms based on information contained in their built-in threat libraries to work most effectively. This, in turn, requires specialists to routinely reprogram systems to keep them as up to date as possible. Automating and otherwise shortening that process at every step of the way by developing what are known as cognitive electronic warfare capabilities…

Cognitive electronic warfare, at its core, refers to efforts to automate and otherwise speed up various aspects of electronic warfare, including the rapid updating of the functionality of existing systems and the development of all-new countermeasures. The absolute “holy grail” of the concept envisions electronic warfare suites being able to do all of this by themselves, in real-time, even right in the middle of an actual combat mission.

DB2

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Denny

There are 2 million Muslim Israelis. You’ll have to square that.

All I can say that population is not Muslim nationalists.

They can’t deny history since 622 AD. They can square it by secularising Islam. How likely is that?

In a secular regime chanting Death to… would land you in jail.

The Captain

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I dunno, I’ma guess the guy who wants to put his name on a hotel in downtown Tehran?

Note: Iran is three times larger than Iraq was, and that worked out so well, so good luck with that.

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And that is just population-wise. Geographically, it is four times larger with a much greater diversity of terrain. Good luck, right?

Pete

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This is about the government. It is not about conquering Iran.